Spot and Trade Institutional Money Moves

Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction for:

Day Traders, Swing Traders, Long-Term Investors

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

NeverLossTrading Volume Differential Indicator Test

The NeverLossTrading Volume Differential Indicator is the latest addition to our indicator family. It measures the volume differential and marks the high and low of the referring candle associated. The differential is calculated as the gradient change of the sine-wave-approximated volume curve and is part of our NLT HF-Trading package. 

Base Hypothesis

A)     The change of the gradient in the volume curve identifies institutional investor’s activity. Associating price action, we trade the direction the price-move takes, after we identified the volume gradient change.
B)      Frequent changes in buy- and sell-activity lead to multiple trade opportunities in the observed time frame. To formulate an easier directional entry, an approximation of the expected directional price-move is made and spells out a trade signal: Buy > or Sell <, with the following trade conditions: 

Entry:    1-tick above/below the high/low of the associated price candle. A trade is only entered if the price of the candle following the trade initiation candle surpasses the required price level. If this does not happen, we drop the signal.
Exit:       ½-SPU (Speed Unit NLT-specific measure). Painted as a light green dot on the chart.
Stop:     Red Line on the chart (NLT Double-Decker). 

By the input of active traders, we tested the volume differential indicator as a standalone trade entry indicator and found that it provides high probability trade entries. A short explanation to our charts:

  • Red-Zones identify downtrends.
  • Blue-Zones stand for up-trends.
  • Purple-Zones identify indecision, where institutions fight for a directional move.
  • Horizontal lines identify support and resistance levels.
  • Volume bar colors: Cyan = extreme volume. Red=high volume on a down-move.  Blue = high volume on an up-move. Maroon = higher volume with no directional decision. Yellow = low volume.  Gray = average volume. Red and blue waves: Sine-Waves simulated over the volume curve to calculate the gradient change.  

Emni S&P 500 Futures Hourly Chart

The NLT Volume differential indicator provided positive trade results: Six gains with an average gain of three points and one loss. In the three observed trading days a net 15-point gain was achieved. This relates to a potential trade income of $750/contract in 3 days or $250/day. 

Soybean Futures 10-Minutes Chart

The results show six positive trades, where the price threshold was surpassed by the candle, following the trade initiation candle. Key directional price change levels were identifies and multiple trade entries provided. Result: Six positive trades, with an average gain of 1.5 points. The gain in the displayed trading day relates to a $450/contract per day. 

Corn Futures 10-Minutes Chart

Our indicator picked up strong signals and produced six positive trades in the displayed trading day, with an average 1-point gain/trade, which relates to a net profit of $300/contract per day. 

Natural Gas 10-Minutes Chart

The displayed trading day gave us five gains and two losses, with an average gain/loss of six ticks per contract. This relates to a net gain of 18 ticks or $180/contract per day.

Crude Oil Futures 10-Mintues Chart

The displayed trading day showed six positive entries, with an average gain of six-ticks, resulting in a net gain $360 per contract/day. 

Test on FOREX were not possible by not possessing a viable data feed for volume. However, when we tested the indicator on Currency Futures, where we saw very positive results:

Euro Futures 10-Minutes Chart

In the observed trading day, the six trades fulfilled the entry requirements and produced an average gain of 5 Pips/trade, which resulted in an average gain of $375/contract per day. 

Dear contributors, thank you very much for helping us to test the indicator on your time frames and assets. We highly appreciate your contributions from the LinkedIn discussion group, where this indicator test is still posted. 

The NLT Volume-Differential-Indicator is available as part of our NLT HF-Stock-Trading Mentorship package and will be made available in the NLT HF-Day-Trading package. All our indicators are licensed to you for your personal use on two computers, while the copyright remains with Nobel Living, LLC the parent company of NeverLossTrading. 

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