Spot and Trade Institutional Money Moves

Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction for:

Day Traders, Swing Traders, Long-Term Investors

Saturday, February 4, 2023

Tailor-Made Algorithmic Trading

How to tailor your trading program to your wants and needs? Success has a structure, and if you are not applying a structured approach, your chances for a positive outcome will be random.

Depending on which trading style fits your life, different concepts or structures support your goals.

Therefore, we distinguish three trading styles and recommend choosing a style that fits your lifestyle, and indeed, you can combine trading styles:

  • Day Trading: Opening and closing positions the same day
  • Swing Trading: Keeping open positions for a couple of days
  • Longer-Term Investing: Holding open positions for weeks, months

Our teaching and coaching are individual and focused on your preference, return expectations and available time. Over the years in business, we did not find two trades with precisely the same style or program adaptation; people are different in:

  • Overall time commitment
  • Time to trade and decide
  • Risk tolerance
  • Return expectations
  • The primary income, side income, retirement income
  • Account size
  • Affinity to assets (stocks, options, futures, FOREX)
  • Level of skill and knowledge
  • Average time to keep open positions
  • Account type: margin, IRA, 401(k)
  • Commitment to documentation and continued improvement

Hence, our system and strategies adjust to you like a tailor-made suit because we know one size does not fit all!

In any case, we can still share some base principles to consider through all trading styles and put those in a table for you.

The Structure of Trading Success

Trading StyleDay TradingSwing TradingLonger-Term
SystemMechanicalMechanicalMechanical
Return ExpectationExample: $1,000 per week trading one futures contract2% – 5% return on capital engaged per week2% to 5% return on capital engaged per month
Activity (number of transactions)2-3 trades per day2-5 trades per week2-5 trades per month
Risk Limiting StrategiesGivenCombining assets with optionsCombining assets with options
Trade RepairNoneImportantImportant
Asset PreferenceFutures, FOREX, StocksStocks & Options Futures, FOREXStocks & Options Futures, FOREX
Average time in a positionMinutes or hours One to five barsOne to five daysOne to five weeks or one to five months
Skill LevelHighest: solid short-term decisionsHighHigh
DocumentationEvery trade and 20-trade reviewEvery trade and 20-trade reviewEvery trade and 20-trade review

Let us elaborate on this:

System

You want a high-probability trading system that forecasts the price movement with clearly defined entry, exit, and stop conditions regardless of the time of holding positions. Give yourself little to no room for discretionary decisions: Trust your system and accept that you work with uncertainty at or above a rate of 65%, and we can help you achieve this.

Return Expectations

The higher your return expectations are, the better your skill and dedication need to be. If trading and investing were easy, nobody would ever go to work. Return, risk and investment size go hand in hand, and we share strategies to specify a fixed income per time period, achievable with a small number of trades.

Why a small number of trades?

Retail traders tend to overdo their trading activity and accept too much risk. Trading is all about risk control and folding when you achieve your goal. For example, when working with day traders who trade Futures, we specify two contracts to trade and complete the weekly income budget of $1,000. Depending on the broker you work with, you need about $2,000 to $12,000 of capital to conduct these trades. When you reach the budget consistently, upscaling (trading more than one contract) is the conclusive next step, and you follow the same principle.

Here are two chart examples that combine NLT Top-Line, Trend Catching, and Timeless.

The first chart shows five potential trade situations; each spells out a price threshold like Buy > $4068 and provides a basis to trade for a price change of about $300 of the underlying contract. To execute a transaction, we operate with a buy-stop bracket order, and the trade only goes to the exchange when in the price development of the next candle, the set threshold is reached and the order executed. Five trade situations were highlighted, and all met their desired target (gray dot on the chart). Non got stopped (red crossbar on the chart).

E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Example

Next, we pick a crude oil futures example for the same day.

Crude Oil Futures Example

The Crude Oil Futures Chart shows nine trade situations with the same conditions and price thresholds. Accepting trades mechanically, without the evaluation to learn: six trade setups came to target (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9), and two got stopped (4, 5).

We hope you see in the red crossbars where to put the stop. Targets are expressed in dots, and we only enter into a trade when the price threshold is ticked out in the price movement of the next candle.

We could add multiple charts, and if you want to see more:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo

Next, let us discuss swing trading and longer-term investing with the same principles:

Imagine you are a swing trader, and you hold $50,000; a two percent return on cash would be, again, an income of $1,000 weekly. Now let us quickly calculate how many trades you need, winning two out of three to get to the budget, assuming that your accepted risk is 1.2 times your reward. So the answer is again about four trades. Hence, you do not need to transact that often to achieve your goals. The example for a longer-term investor with a 2% monthly return would calculate equally and ask for about four trades to complete the budget. We combine this concept in what we call less is more: – = +, but we wanted to give you a meaningful introduction to a different way of thinking and acting to achieve your trading goals long-term. Striving for constant income from the financial markets, you need more than a buy-and-hold strategy. You need the knowledge of how to combine, for example, stocks with options or trade options to limit your risk because opposite gaps quickly can get you way outside of your assumed risk and cut deep into your profits. When you get into action, you will notice that some trades go opposite, and then our method of trade repair comes into play, which gave us our brand name: Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy.

Swing Trading Example QQQ

The QQQ chart shows a swing trading example, and you see multiple directional indications with buy and sell thresholds: Buy > or Sell <, and we only act if the set number is reached in the price movement of the next candle. The holding time is a couple of days. Dots specify trade targets, and red crossbars are the stop levels.

The daily NLT Speed Unit (SPU) for the QQQ swing trade is around 2.5% and as such, this is the return you strive for per trade. When using the NLT Delta Force Concept, surely multiple times higher, but you also have a higher associated percentage risk. In the continuation of this article you will learn how the return you strive for will support meaningful weekly swing trading goals and the QQQs are perfectly in spec. for stock and options trades.

If you want to hold open positions for multiple weeks, the SPX provides a solid basis for longer-term positions. Again, you will find buy and sell indications with thresholds; horizontal lines build express supply lines on pullbacks, where we propose to exit in the current overall bear market.

Longer-Term Trading Example SPX

The SPX chart shows six trade situations where five worked according to plan and one failed.

Depending on the account type you are holding, a change in strategy is required to participate in downside moves:

  • IRAs do not allow for short-selling stock, and we help you with the NLT Delta Force Concept to participate in falling prices by options trading strategies, allowed in this account type
  • If you are operating from a margin account, you have fewer limitations, but you must hold more than $25,000 to short stocks. Again, we provide options trading strategies that limit your risk and leverage your reward per trade.

You now see how goal setting influences your way to market and requires you to change because needs constantly change, and you do not want to be left behind. So at this point, our support kicks in, and we provide the required tools and knowledge.

Also, in day trading, we recommend formulating a goal and measuring success in getting there. Hence, we recommend that our traders work towards short-term budgets. For example, as a day trader, to produce an income of $1,000 by trading one contract of either the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract or Crude Oil Futures – two highly liquid assets with no limitations for following the up or downside direction. Then, when the weekly budget is hit, you stop trading. In addition, we encourage you to limit the maximum number of daily trades to three – following our concept that less trading is more: – = +. Finally, you restart the clock every week and journal your achievements to discuss what went right or wrong to improve your actions after every set of twenty trades. Depending on your broker’s margin requirement, you can participate in this exercise with a capital between $500 and $12,000.

Day trading success has a structure or pattern to follow, and I want to show you some tools that can help you form sound decisions at high probable price turning points. We pick two examples to demonstrate what our systems can do and discuss the individual trade setups. Again, the systems will formulate buy or sell thresholds (buy < or sell >). Target (dot on the chart) and stop (red crossbar) are system set, allowing you to operate with buy-stop and sell-stop bracket orders. For days trading, we choose a timeless chart setup, where candles form purely price based, and the system sets the price increment to trade. With modern AI technology and highly probable algorithmic trading systems, your market outlook and action will change, helping you to form sound mechanical decisions and act repetitively. With what we show you, three to four weekly winning trades make the $1,000 budget. We then encourage you to stop trading: overtrading is one of the strongest pitfalls of a day trader: reach the budget and be good, and trust our advice: less trading is more: – = +.

We share two examples showing NLT Timeless Day Trading Charts for the E-Mini S&P 500 and the Crude Oil Futures contract. On an NLT Timeless chart, candles are formed purely price-based, and the system defines the price increment to trade for. In our examples, we evaluate each signal as it appears valid while following the concept of less is more; you will learn during our trading sessions selection criteria to distinguish higher from lower probability setups.

Risk Limiting Stragegies

As a day trader, risk limiting is simple: you work with bracket orders (OCO, once cancels the other); however, your system, not you, needs to decide on entry, exit, and stop.

When we come to swing trading or longer-term investing, you are exposed to overnight gaps that increase your risk acceptance. To get around an extended risk, combining, for example, stocks with options or trading options limits your risk exposure. We teach the NLT Delta Force Concept, which specifies at any point:

  • The strike price to pick
  • The time to expiration to choose
  • The maximum price to pay or apply a different strategy

Skill and knowledge make a significant difference to your expected returns. We are here to support you in gaining the knowledge needed to strive for solid returns regardless of market direction.

Trade Repair

As a day trader, when a trade goes wrong, it goes wrong, period. We tested methods of opening up opposite-oriented trades but found no value in this concept. The reason is: we want to trade on solid system indications, and a transaction coming to a stop does not mean it allows for opening an opposite trade and successfully bringing it to target. In rare cases, was the stop-candle a candle with a strong opposite signal indication, and we are trading at high probability setups only. However, trade repair enormously impacts swing trading and longer-term investing. Imagine a set of six trades, each winning $1,000 or losing $1,200; when winning two out of three transactions, your expected income from a group of six trades is $1,600. If you reduce your losing trades through a trade repair to half ($600), the expected outcome is $2,800 or a 75% improvement, and often you can even do better or turn losers into winners. However, the average retail trader does not possess the skills we bring to the party and share in our mentorships.

Skill

Trading is not just about an indicator; it takes multiple dimensions to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be. Therefore, we support you in acquiring the necessary knowledge and skills.

Success Factors for Trading and Investing

To succeed in trading, you best work with an experienced coach and learn much about trading. Our #1 competitive advantage is the support and customer service we offer. We work one-on-one with you to specify what we teach to your specific wants and needs; hence, if your knowledge base is not expanding rapidly, you are doing something wrong.

Ongoing education and mentoring are crucial to longevity in this business. Veteran traders have been through more ups and downs than you can imagine. So, experienced pros have probably experienced whatever you’re going through.

If you are ready to make a difference in your trading:

We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support

Saturday, January 28, 2023

Trading Success

Success is the state or condition of meeting a defined range of expectations. Hence, we encourage traders and investors to specify an achievable goal and guide you with our tools and knowledge of how to get there.

We use the words trader and investor synonymously:

  • Traders hold positions for a shorter period, like day trading or swing trading
  • Investors for a more extended period, like days and months

When setting a goal, it needs to be attainable and measurable. Fund managers, for example, measure their achievements against an index and report how well they did in their periodic reports to the fund holders. An example could be, comparing the fund development to the S&P 500. However, market conditions have changed: We have been in a bear market for the past year and making money with buy and hold is not a successful strategy; hence, if you do not change your approach to the market, you compare yourself to a falling index while our goal for you is to achieve constant income from the market and set a goal of like: 2% or 5% return on cash per month, regardless of the direction the market takes. How would such a goal sound to you?

At this point, you need to change your way to market to aim for a 2% return on capital regardless of the market’s direction: it requires you to act with strategies that fit your account that accumulate income when the markets go up or down. What you need is:

  • A system that tells you crucial price turning points with specified entries, exits and stops as the maximum holding time for an open position
  • Strategies to participate in directional trades to the up and downside that limit your risk
  • Specify times when it is not wise to be invested by the market resting in a period of indecision (purple zone)

Let us pick a stock market chart and discuss:

Swing Trading Example QQQ

The QQQ chart shows a swing trading example, and you see multiple directional indications with buy and sell thresholds: Buy > or Sell <, and we only act if the set number is reached in the price movement of the next candle. The holding time is a couple of days. Dots specify trade targets, and red crossbars are the stop levels.

If you want to hold open positions for multiple weeks, the SPX provides a solid basis for longer-term positions. Again, you will find buy and sell indications with thresholds; horizontal lines build express supply lines on pullbacks, where we propose to exit in the current overall bear market.

Longer-Term Trading Example SPX

The SPX chart shows six trade situations where five worked according to plan and one failed.

Depending on the account type you are holding, a change in strategy is required to participate in downside moves:

  • IRAs do not allow for short-selling stock, and we help you with the NLT Delta Force Concept to participate in falling prices by options trading strategies, allowed in this account type
  • If you are operating from a margin account, you have fewer limitations, but you must hold more than $25,000 to short stocks. Again, we provide options trading strategies that limit your risk and leverage your reward per trade.

You now see how goal setting influences your way to market and requires you to change because needs constantly change, and you do not want to be left behind. So at this point, our support kicks in, and we provide the required tools and knowledge.

Also, in day trading, we recommend formulating a goal and measuring success in getting there. Hence, we recommend that our traders work towards short-term budgets. For example, as a day trader, to produce an income of $1,000 by trading one contract of either the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract or Crude Oil Futures – two highly liquid assets with no limitations for following the up or downside direction. Then, when the weekly budget is hit, you stop trading. In addition, we encourage you to limit the maximum number of daily trades to three – following our concept that less trading is more: – = +. Finally, you restart the clock every week and journal your achievements to discuss what went right or wrong to improve your actions after every set of twenty trades. Depending on your broker’s margin requirement, you can participate in this exercise with a capital between $500 and $12,000.

Day trading success has a structure or pattern to follow, and I want to show you some tools that can help you form sound decisions at high probable price turning points. We pick two examples to demonstrate what our systems can do and discuss the individual trade setups. Again, the systems will formulate buy or sell thresholds (buy < or sell >). Target (dot on the chart) and stop (red crossbar) are system set, allowing you to operate with buy-stop and sell-stop bracket orders. For days trading, we choose a timeless chart setup, where candles form purely price based, and the system sets the price increment to trade. With modern AI technology and highly probable algorithmic trading systems, your market outlook and action will change, helping you to form sound mechanical decisions and act repetitively. With what we show you, three to four weekly winning trades make the $1,000 budget. We then encourage you to stop trading: overtrading is one of the strongest pitfalls of a day trader: reach the budget and be good, and trust our advice: less trading is more: – = +.

We share two examples showing NLT Timeless Day Trading Charts for the E-Mini S&P 500 and the Crude Oil Futures contract. On an NLT Timeless chart, candles are formed purely price-based, and the system defines the price increment to trade for. In our examples, we evaluate each signal as it appears valid while following the concept of less is more; you will learn during our trading sessions selection criteria to distinguish higher from lower probability setups.

E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Example

The chart shows five potential trade situations; each spells out a price threshold like Buy > $4068 and provides a basis to trade for a price change of about $300 of the underlying contract. To execute a transaction, we operate with a buy-stop bracket order, and the trade only goes to the exchange when in the price development of the next candle, the set threshold is reached and the order executed. In the example from yesterday, from the perspective of writing and publishing this article, five trade situations were highlighted, and all came to their desired target (gray dot on the chart). Non got stopped (red crossbar on the chart).

Crude Oil Futures Example

The Crude Oil Futures Chart shows nine trade situations with the same conditions and price thresholds. Accepting trades mechanically, without the evaluation to learn: six trade setups came to target (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9), and two got stopped (4, 5).

The name NeverLossTrading derives from the concept of repairing trades: never stop loss trading was a bit lengthy. In no way do we want to promise never to lose a trade, but we propagate high-probability trading for retail traders and guide you with our tools and knowledge on your pass of trading success.

In the past, algorithmic trading was solely available to institutional investors, but we put in the work and effort to offer adequate systems to retail traders at affordable rates. Our offering for NLT systems ranges from about $2,500 for TradeColors.com to $15,500 for the combination of NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching, and we work one-on-one with you to apply our systems for your decision-making best.

With NeverLossTrading, all financial markets can be traded, while we mainly focus on liquid markets in the arena of stocks, options, futures, and FOREX. We offer a robust framework of constantly adjusting to actual algorithms that contain an AI component and, with that, recalibrate constantly. Our systems provide broad flexibility because they allow us to scale up and react quickly in different products and markets. The most practical approach for us is to use algorithms to process data and then leave it to humans to make the decisions. Price, volume, and volatility are our data inputs to mathematical models. In addition, we teach various strategies to act on price changes, limiting the risk and leveraging profit opportunities.

The advantage of NeverLossTrading is that it allows for the optimal use of available data and reduces or eliminates the emotional decision-making that can occur during trading.

Our algorithms collect underlying changes in supply and demand to extrapolate potential price moves with system-defined entry, exit and stop decisions.

Trading is learnable: we take a holistic approach considering all crucial elements needed to succeed: It takes multiple dimensions to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be, and we support you in acquiring the knowledge and skills needed.

Success Factors for Trading and Investing

NeverLossTrading stands for high-probability algorithmic trading, where you stay in command of pushing the trade opening button: target and exit are systems defined, and you will only act in situations where risk and reward are in a meaningful balance. We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

contact@NeverLossTrading.com  Subj.: Demo

The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support

Saturday, January 21, 2023

Trading: The Roulette of Wall Street

We invite you into probability thinking. Trading is about controlling the risk and estimating the probability of winning. Read on to learn what is needed.

Recently, a gambler explained a winning roulette-playing strategy in a promotional video on my Facebook account. Based on an American wheel, his bet was $25 per column, choosing two columns and repeating the bet. Following the Martingale principle, he doubled his bet when losing and folded his game when he was winning $200, with a maximum risk to take of $650. Let us now validate the base assumptions made to get to the desired $200 income and the probability of this happening. Then, to validate if this can be a winning strategy, we look at what is needed to achieve the goal and what happens in case everything goes wrong.

In the first step, we will check the base assumptions of this strategy to see if it will lead to positive expectations.

Roulette Strategy Probability Table Example

Here is what we calculate with simple math:

  • When you lose, you waste $700 or $750 and not $650, as assumed
  • Betting on 24 out of 38 numbers gives you a winning probability of 63%, and the odds seem to be in your favor. However, to produce an income of $200, you need to win either three or four times in a row, and the likelihood of such a winning series is only 16% or 25%

Taking a shortcut: the shared video did not offer a winning strategy but was well presented. If this worked, everybody would break the bank.

How can we translate this as being a trader instead of a gambler?

The roulette example invited you into the world of probability thinking, and in trading, you can find ways to bend the odds in your favor by acting at high probable price turning points. Your advantage in trading or investing is that individual happenings are not random; they are connected or correlated to underlying structures that we can measure and forecasted with a substantial probability.

We use the words trading or investing synonymously, behaviorwise the same is required:

  • Traders hold open positions for shorter periods (day trading, swing trading)
  • Investors keep open positions for weeks, months, years

Trading decisions are, mathematically speaking, a Markov chain and not a Finetty happening (random price move). Hence, with the right system, you have an edge in producing income from the financial markets with a high likelihood.

Using a high-probability system and appropriate strategies, you can act with the odds in your favor. Opposite of gambling, where the house always wins. Bring your computer to the casino and count the minutes until you are asked to leave. In trading, you can use computers and AI technology to form sound decisions and act from the comfort of your home. Trading and gambling mentality drastically differentiate:

Most gamblers have insufficient knowledge of probabilities and overextend risk (like in the example we shared).

Trading success comes from a sound knowledge of complex ways of trading or investing, with stringent money management, risk control, and following a business plan (action plan and financial plan). Even though this sounds challenging, we will help you take shortcuts, simplifying the undertaking to reach reasonable conclusions to complex trading problems quickly.

In a short overview, this is what is needed to succeed:

Critical Elements for Trading Success

UsualSuccess FactorNeeded
Average 50% – 55% or no system with interpretation on entry and exitSystemHigh probability ≥65% with hard-coded entry and exit rules
Trading at free will with open decisions of when and how to tradeDisciplineFollowing a plan of when to trade, how often, and minimum expectations to accept a trade
One trading strategy to follow and strategy change when losing tradesStrategiesMultiple risk-limiting strategies related to chart setups and the assets
Equal risk allocation or high-risk acceptance without rulesMoney ManagementAllocation rules for the risk to take and trade repair ability
Focus on limited assets, regardless of the stage of a price move they are inTrade FinderOwn a market scanner or subscription to system-based market alerts
No performance measure in fear of making transparent to yourself what does not workScore CardKeep a record of what worked and what did not. Continue what worked and strive for constant improvement

If you like to read the details of how to implement the trading success elements in a free PDF document:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Path to Success

Our article shares multiple ways of identifying and extrapolating critical price turns for day trading, swing trading, and longer-term investing.

The name NeverLossTrading derives from the concept of repairing trades: never stop loss trading was a bit lengthy. In no way do we want to promise never to lose a trade, but we propagate high probability trading for retail traders. We have been in business since 2008, helping individuals master the challenges of the financial markets.

Rate yourself where you stand in the six critical success factors for trading:

If you can put a checkmark on each success factor in the column: Need, there is little we can add to your trading; if not, get ready to make a change.

In the past, algorithmic trading was solely available to institutional investors, but we put in the work and effort to offer adequate systems to retail traders at affordable rates. Our offering for NLT systems ranges from about $2,500 for TradeColors.com to $15,500 for the combination of NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching, and we work one-on-one with you to apply our systems for your decision-making best.

With NeverLossTrading, all financial markets can be traded, while we mainly focus on liquid markets in the arena of stocks, options, futures, and FOREX. We offer a robust framework of constantly adjusting to actual algorithms that contain an AI component and, with that, recalibrate constantly. Our systems provide broad flexibility because they allow us to scale up and react quickly in different products and markets. The most practical approach for us is to use algorithms to process data and then leave it to humans to make the decisions. Price, volume, and volatility are our data inputs to mathematical models. In addition, we teach various strategies to act on price changes, limiting the risk and leveraging profit opportunities.

The advantage of NeverLossTrading is that it allows for the optimal use of available data and reduces or eliminates the emotional decision-making that can occur during trading.

Our algorithms collect underlying changes in supply and demand to extrapolate potential price moves with system-defined entry, exit, and stop decisions.

Trading is learnable: we take a holistic approach considering all crucial elements needed to succeed: It takes multiple dimensions to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be, and we support you in acquiring the knowledge and skills needed.

Success Factors for Trading and Investing

NeverLossTrading stands for high-probability algorithmic trading, where you stay in command of pushing the trade opening button: target and exit are systems defined, and you will only act in situations where risk and reward are in a meaningful balance. We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support

Saturday, January 14, 2023

The Path to Trading Success

If trading were easy, nobody would ever go to work; however, it is learnable: Trading Success has a structure: a path to learn and follow; this is what we share here with you.

On the path to trading or investing success, structure matters. We use the words trading or investing synonymously, behaviorwise the same is required:

  • Traders hold open positions for shorter periods (day trading, swing trading)
  • Investors hold positions for weeks, months, years

When your way of trading or investing gives you random results, spare the effort of optimization; change is inevitable. Instead, we want to help you to structure your trading and investing goals so you can be consistent.

We all possess a human psychological need to find a reason for what we did in the past and justify our doing. Hence, people praise the trading success they had and do not talk about the losses they made. However, your account statement strikes a balance, and if it is not positive or at your expectation rate, it is time to make a change in 2023 to develop yourself into the trader or investor you want to be. 

When we talk about a path to success, what are the critical elements to make you a consistent trader or investor?

We are more than ten years in the trading education business, and here are the essential elements we see:

Critical Elements for Trading Success

UsualSuccess FactorNeeded
Average 50% – 55% or no system with interpretation on entry and exitSystemHigh probability ≥65% with hard-coded entry and exit rules
Trading at free will with open decisions of when and how to tradeDisciplineFollowing a plan of when to trade, how often, and minimum expectations to accept a trade
One trading strategy to follow and strategy change when losing tradesStrategiesMultiple risk-limiting strategies related to chart setups and the assets
Equal risk allocation or high-risk acceptance without rulesMoney ManagementAllocation rules for the risk to take and trade repair ability
Focus on limited assets, regardless of the stage of a price move they are inTrade FinderOwn a market scanner or subscription to system-based market alerts
No performance measure in fear of making transparent to yourself what does not workScore CardKeep a record of what worked and what did not. Continue what worked and strive for constant improvement

In trading, you accept decisions under a high level of uncertainty. About 10,000 times higher than those experienced in other professions; hence, you will only emotionally survive the trading pressure with a structure.

Let us explain a bit further:

Would a 75% chance for success be something you say would help you to achieve your trading and investing goals?

We know this was an unfair question, but we are an algorithmic trading house. As such, we are quantifying opportunities and operating with measurable approaches, eliminating emotional decision-making to a very high degree. You need a system that provides you the basis to form mechanical decisions when specific setups occur on your charts.

System

In your trading decisions, you want to find a way to separate signal from noise:

  • Signal: directional price move indication
  • Noise: random price move indication

Average trading systems are past-oriented and mostly lag behind the actual happening this is why their likelihood to forecast future price moves is 50% to 55%. On the other hand, high-probability systems start at 65% accuracy.

Let us quickly calculate the difference in the expected trading result between a model with a 55% probability to one of 65%. First, what is the likelihood of winning six or more out of ten trades? Then, we calculate the expected chance with the help of the Bernoulli experiment. Please let us take a shortcut here:

  • A 65% system gives you a 75% chance to predict and win six or more out of ten trades
  • A 55% only gives you a 50.4% chance for six or more winners (random predictability)

Now, you know why we propagate high over low probability for retail traders.

We offer several systems: TradeColors.com is our beginner system and is included in all other systems. In this publication, we like to share a combination of NLT Top-Line, Trend Catching, and NLT Timeless Indications.

NLT Top-Line has multiple price charts and lower study indicators for trading at crucial price turning points:

  • Strong Price Turning Points: NLT Power Towers stand tall and point a direction (blue and red, buy> and sell<)
  • Tops and Bottoms: NLT Early Buy or Sell, pointing out more considerable directional price moves (orange buy>, sell<)
  • End of Purple Zone. We color up-moves in blue and down-moves in red; when there is a time of ambiguity in price direction (purple buy> and sell <).
  • Strong money in our outflow, showing institutional engagement (lower study)
  • Correlated or uncorrelated to the overall market move (lower study)
  • Historical price projection to understand what others expect (upper and lower study)
  • and more

NLT Trend Catching differentiates

  • Trend Initiation Signals (gray buy > and sell <)
  • Trend Continuation Signals (gray Buy_C and Sell_C)
  • Balance of Power: Buyers or sellers in Charge

Many of our clients combine systems for a higher participation rate: more trades and accuracy with uncorrelated indicators.

Let us get into some chart examples that include our hard-coded rules for entry and exit: another crucial system component in giving you a higher chance of winning.

In the first example, you see a Timeless NLT Day Trading Chart, where we combine NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching. On our timeless charts, candles construct themselves purely price based, defined by the system – time is not a consideration; this helps traders to achieve:

  • Trading at crucial price turning points
  • Trade situations with system-specified acceptable risk/reward setups
  • Acting less predictable by following principles other market participants cannot predict easily, while it is pretty evident on time-based charts, where stop-loss orders sit. 

NLT Timeless Day Trading Examples /ES

On January 6, 2023, between 8:30 a.m. and 3 p.m. ET, nine trading opportunities were indicated: seven winners and two losses (78%).

Swing Trading Example QQQ

The QQQ chart shows a swing trading example, and you see multiple directional indications with buy and sell thresholds: Buy > or Sell <, and we only act if the set number is reached in the price movement of the next candle. The holding time is a couple of days. Dots specify trade targets, and red crossbars are the stop levels.

If you want to hold open positions for multiple weeks, the SPX provides a solid basis for longer-term positions. Again, you will find buy and sell indications with thresholds; horizontal lines build express supply lines on pullbacks, where we propose to exit in the current overall bear market.

Swing Trading Example SPX

The SPX chart shows six trade situations where five worked according to plan and one failed.

Discipline

People from different professions tend to apply a work strategy in trading: trying to trade often and hard when the week starts. However, this is not a fruitful way to act in the financial markets. Trading/investing is a professional business; professionals follow defined principles and act only when specified conditions are met. With our systems and strategies, this is the principle we follow, and we only trade on pre-defined setups, encouraging our clients to pursue a business plan for trading success, which consists of:

  • Action plan: when to trade and when not
  • Financial plan: how often to trade and which returns to expect

In our mentorships, those written plans are generated jointly and followed by successful clients.

Are you ready to create and follow a business plan for trading success?

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo

Strategies

Trading strategies are a wide range of topics and depend on the holding time you desire for open positions. If you are day trading, one of our strategies is to focus on two assets with NLT Timeless Concept setups, giving you a sound basis for high probable configurations. We encourage you not to focus on endless opportunities but to act, produce a pre-defined daily income and then close the books. We call this idea: less is more or – = +, and if you like to learn more about this, we are happy to send you a referring article as PDF:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: less is more

As a swing trader or longer-term investor, gaps can produce an extraordinary overnight risk. However, there are actions you can take to limit the overnight risk:

  • Trading options of underlying assets, limiting the risk to the premium paid with upside leverage when your directional price move example works.
  • Combining stocks and options for additional income and additional protection. We share our NLT Delta Force Options Trading concept in our mentorships. The concept defines the options delta to act upon, the time to expiration to pick, the maximum price to pay, or the premium to collect
  • Hedging portfolio holdings with futures trading strategies, covering potential counter price moves six out of seven days where orders will be auto-released based on specified conditions, to secure your portfolio value or even leverage it

Trading involves multiple elements of knowledge and a lack of one of the success factors can already be detrimental to achieving your desired results.

Money Management

When you have all ducts in a row and you produce constant income from the financial markets, we encourage you to be 80% invested and keep 20% of your assets for potential trade repairs or hedging your portfolio in case of need.

How much risk do you accept when per trade?

Yes, we are not asking what you want to invest per trade; the risk defines how many shares or options you buy or sell. Disciplined traders allocate 2% to a maximum of 5% of their holdings to every single trade and focus on preventing correlated investments by diversification.

Trading is all about controlling the risk of each transaction. Of course, we are assuming the outcome of a trade, but we control the risk we take.

Trade Finder

Never be late for a trade: how do you find system-compliant trade setups?

With NLT Top-Line, you have your own market scanners to spot and follow institutional money moves with adequate strategies. However, we also offer NLT Alerts, where we inform traders and investors on monthly, weekly, daily, and 4h opportunities.

Our reports cover stocks, options, futures, and FOREX. If you like to take a glimpse into how we find and report opportunities, write us an email:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Alerts

and specify what you would like to receive trading alerts on, and we will send them to you for a week for free.

Score Card

What we can measure we can control; however, not many traders keep scorecards, and such lack input where their performance can improve.

A solid scorecard is a tool to strive for constant improvement; it does not function as a measure to critique the past.

We developed models for every type of trader and will share an example of a day trading scorecard of one of our clients. The administrative effort for a trade entry is about 20 seconds. Hence, the person filling in the details invested about a minute per day to get feedback on performance, behavior, and room for improvement.

From our experience, we best review after a set of twenty trades, better forty, to see actual achievement and where a change in focus or behavior can improve the overall performance.

NLT Day Trading Score Card Example

Here is our feedback to the trader with his last 60 trades:

  • 72% winning percentage proves that the trader acted at high-probability setups
  • Most of his income came from NLT PowerTowers and Floating Signals: keep focus
  • By feeling pressure when the price development counteracts, the trader left 58% of the trades early and did not harvest to the full magnitude of the opportunities covered: room for improvement

Rate yourself where you stand in the six critical success factors for trading:

If you can put a checkmark on each success factor in the column: Need, there is little we can add to your trading; if not, get ready to make a change.

In the past, algorithmic trading was solely available to institutional investors, but we put in the work and effort to offer adequate systems to retail traders at affordable rates. Our offering for NLT systems ranges from about $2,500 for TradeColors.com to $15,500 for the combination of NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching, and we work one-on-one with you to apply our systems for your decision-making best.

With NeverLossTrading, all financial markets can be traded, while we mainly focus on liquid markets in the arena of stocks, options, futures, and FOREX. We offer a robust framework of constantly adjusting to actual algorithms that contain an AI component and, with that, recalibrate constantly. Our systems provide broad flexibility because they allow us to scale up and react quickly in different products and markets. The most practical approach for us is to use algorithms to process data and then leave it to humans to make the decisions. Price, volume, and volatility are our data inputs to mathematical models. In addition, we teach various strategies to act on price changes, limiting the risk and leveraging profit opportunities.

The advantage of NeverLossTrading is that it allows for the optimal use of available data and reduces or eliminates the emotional decision-making that can occur during trading.

Our algorithms collect underlying changes in supply and demand to extrapolate potential price moves with system-defined entry, exit, and stop decisions.

Trading is learnable: we take a holistic approach considering all crucial elements needed to succeed: It takes multiple dimensions to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be, and we support you in acquiring the knowledge and skills needed.

Success Factors for Trading and Investing

NeverLossTrading stands for high-probability algorithmic trading, where you stay in command of pushing the trade opening button: target and exit are systems defined, and you will only act in situations where risk and reward are in a meaningful balance. We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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