If you do not care about your money, nobody else will. We are in a bear market, ahead of a recession. Investment strategies that have worked for the last ten years will ruin our days. Learn which approach to take to keep your investments for the future current.
Most of your retirement money invested in the stock market, either in a margin account, IRA, or 401(k), is at stake.
Why?
We are in a bear market, and thus far, we have to find the bottom!
Our simulator portrays the following scenarios for the S&P 500 Index, which we see as the most representative of the market. To get an idea of where we could land, we let our future projection study work out potential scenarios and put them on the chart for the years 2022 forward and 2023. The chart shows that if we come to recovery, we will remain below the highs of 2021; however, if we further drop, we could quickly end up at an SPX value of $1,980 or 58% of the 2021 highs. Hence, buy and hold was suitable for the past ten years but is not an appropriate strategy for today and the future. With this article, we want to help you to overthink your investment decisions and learn to let the chart tell when to buy or sell with the appropriate strategies so that you are not sacrificing your portfolio values.
Stock Market Development and Outlook based on SPX
Do you know the company BlackRock?
BlackRock is the leading investment house for institutional funds. Yes, those are similar to mutual funds you might hold in your 401(k) or IRA; however, what BlackRock offers is geared towards institutional investors like insurance, banks, etc. The BLK-share had a tremendous value gain after the last crisis in 2008: it went from $96 a share in 2008 to $943 in 2021. However, in anticipation of further stock market risks, the BLK share dropped from its highs to $550, where it is trading now: -42%. When you compare this to the projected SPX value of $2,460, you see why our projector study is foreseeing a further stress potential for the stock market and your holdings.
At this point, some readers might think that they can manage their portfolios better than the BlackRock fund managers. However, if you continue to buy and hold, you will take an extraordinary risk, and if the market drops another 20%, you need to produce a 100% return to catch up from where you started. Hence, it is time to overthink your way of trading/investing.
BLK Share Price Development Compared to SPX
The chart shows how BLK is catching up with the overall stock market development, and our projectors paint a likely negative future. In summary: Buy and hold is not an appropriate strategy for private investors for 2022 and 2023. It exposes you to too much risk, which will be hard to recover. All signs point towards a recession, and stock index values are typically a multiple of the earnings. The new earnings season just started, and the big banks in the last quarter made solid profits; however, they caution us by their outlook and foresee challenges as we advance.
Hence, what are your alternatives in trading or investing going forward?
- Participating in shorter-term price moves at strong directional signals with stocks and their options
- Trading Futures by their ability to go long and short on the spot as a day trader or swing trader in a 24h market
- Using futures to hedge your actual portfolio if you insist on keeping holdings long-term
- Go into cash as a 401(k) holder
Can you change your investment strategy by yourself, and how do you decide when to buy or sell?
If you are ready to experience and learn high-probability trade performance and strategies:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo
Our imperative is:
Let the chat tell when to buy or sell; hence, we jointly look at the chart example for BLK for where our NLT Top-Line chart indicated to buy or sell:
BLK, Daily NLT Top-Line Chart, 7/12 – 10/7, 2022
On the chart, we highlighted four potential price turning points. At each, our NLT Top Line indicators pointed the direction to either buy or sell when the formulated price threshold of buying> or selling< were fulfilled in the price movement of the next candle. This way, buy-stop or sell-stop orders are filled:
Situation-1: Buy > $629.65. The price movement of the next candle took out the price threshold, and a long trade was initiated to the second target dot on the chart, where it got, and the trade was closed. Then you had multiple re-entering opportunities after the candles with the cyan arrow and dot, or you could trail the stop with the red line and the lower side of the blue frame.
Situation-2 had an orange sell signal. This signal occurred as an early directional change signal and was followed up by an NLT PowerTower (red signal, Sell < $712.31) and led to a short trade until the second target dot was reached.
Situation-3: Sell < $643.31. The direction of the trade was confirmed by ticking below the set price threshold, and a short trade to the second target dot followed.
Situation-4: Buy > $578.34 was not accepted as a trade potential. The reason for this: V-Shape reversals occur only in 15% of the cases, and we are probability thinkers and only take high-probability setups. Hence we disregarded this first leg up.
Suppose you are trading from an IRA or Cash Account, where short-selling stock is not allowed by SEC regulations. In that case, you learn to participate in the downside price movement by a simple options strategy with the help of the NLT Delta Force Concept:
- It specifies the stock options Delta you buy
- The time to expiration to pick
- And the maximum price to pay for the option
Our concept demystifies options trading and gives you a clear perspective of what to do, how, and when.
Our blog and YouTube channel hold many examples of systems and decision-making points, where we explain how we act with the help of our indicators and strategies.
Past performance cannot always be taken as indicative of future results; however, if you are ready to experience high probability trade performance and strategies:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo
What we share is:
- Acting with a system probability > 65%
- Mechanical rules for entry, exit, and stop
- Trade at perfect moments only
- Consider overall factors, patterns
- Risk and reward in an acceptable balance
- Risk-averse trading
- Holding positions to target
- Do not add to losers
- Stick with a trading strategy. Follow a business plan – action plan and financial plan
- Trade for meaningful price moves
- Systematic trading
- Having a mentor to learn from
To succeed in trading, you best work with an experienced coach and learn much about trading. Our #1 competitive advantage is the support and customer service we offer. We work one-on-one with you to specify what we teach to your specific wants and needs; hence, if your knowledge base is not expanding rapidly, you are doing something wrong.
Ongoing education and mentoring are crucial to longevity in this business. Veteran traders have been through more ups and downs than you can imagine. So, experienced pros have probably experienced it whatever you’re going through.
If you are ready to make a difference to your trading:
We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.
Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.
The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.
We are happy to hear back from you,
Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)
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