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Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Stock Trading Challenges and Solutions

 For more than ten years, the stock markets were moving upward and allowed for trend trading, but what do you do if there is no trend to make your friend?

The answer is: Momentum trading; however, it is easier said than done? What momentum to trade for and how?

Read on and watch the movie…click.

Already two questions at once:

-      What momentum, meaning the price distance to trade for

-      How, meaning with which risk-limiting strategy

We simplify life for you with the NLT Timeless Swing Trading Concept: The chart will tell when to buy or sell!

A new price results from a change in supply and demand. In other words: The price express where supply and demand are finding the equilibrium or match. 

The following graph shows a situation with an additional demand for a stock at $100. If no additional supply occurs, the equilibrium will move up to match supply and demand at 110.

Supply and Demand Schematic

In the NLT Timeless Swing Trading Concept, we make price-move-increments the deciding factor and not time; this is why it is called timeless.

All decision making dimensions are specified at once:

-      Entry Conditions: When to trade and probability, with buy-stop or sell-stop orders

-      Exit Condition: When is the target reached

-      Stop Condition: When are you wrong and exit

-      Risk Management: Risk limiting  and risk-adjusted by considering the Relation of (Entry - Exit) / (Entry – Stop)

-      Time: For how long to maximum stay in a trade

-      Options Conditions: Strike price to choose, time to expiration, maximum price to pay for the option

Why do options come into play? I want to trade stocks only?

Momentum trades are typically swing-trades, and positions are kept open for a couple of days. Trading stocks only exposes you to the risk of overnight gaps. Your stop is a market stop, and if you considered a 2% risk and the stock gaps overnight by 10% or more, you book that loss because you accepted an unbalanced risk. Drawdowns are the biggest threat for building up a swing trading account.

The solution to this problem is:

·       Trading for the stock price development buy choosing options: in our case, buying Puts or Calls

·       Trading stocks in combination with options: Long stock or short stock, together with a protective option

Why do options offer a limited risk trading strategy?

In the strategies we choose, the maximum risk to take is limited by the premium to pay.

But how to know if an option is reasonably priced or overpriced?

This is where the NLT Timeless Tick comes into play: A proprietary algorithm for NLT concept owners that tells you:

·       Price-move, not time based when to enter and exit

·       Acceptable price range: NLT Timeless Tick ± 20%

·       Strike price to choose

·       Minimum time to expiration to select

The underlying stock reaching the target will define the exit or the stop, all auto-executed by conditional orders, not requiring you to be in front of your computer.

Best explained by an example:

Here is how the chart looks like:

AAPL, NLT Timeless Swing Trading Chart, 1/20 – 2/24/2021

Chart Analysis:

·       There were seven trade situations: five winners (71%) and two losses (29%), which was in spec. with our minimum expectation of 65% winners (NLT high probability base)

·       Entry condition: when the spelled out price threshold is surpassed in the price development of the next candle:

o   Example: Situation-1, Buy > 136.20 was fulfilled in the next candle and lead to a price move to the target: dots on the chart. Targets are also spelled out in the upper left NLT dashboard.

·       Stops at the red crossbars

·       Never enter a trade at the exit candle: stop or target.

·       If buying Put or Call options, never pay more than the NLT Timeless Tick + 20%. Expect an option return of about 60% with similar risk, staying for a maximum of four days in a trade.

·       Profit calculation: 0.6 x 5 – 0.6 x 2 = 1.8 or 180% ROI (return on investment) in 30 days

SPY, NLT Timeless Swing Trading Chart, 1/26 – 2/26/2021



Situation-1: Sell threshold confirmed and came to target the same day.

Situation-2: Sell threshold confirmed and came to target the same day.

Situation-3: Buy threshold confirmed and came to target at the opening of the next day.

Situation-4: Buy > 385.94 came to target the day after entry. The signal after would not be considered by being three price increments away from the buy initiation candle: Buy > 375. 52. We teach those rules in the hours of joint training and coaching

Situation-5: Sell < $388.56 was confirmed the next day and allowed a solid opportunity to buy Put options for following the price development that came to target three days after. Further price indications along the way to target or stop will not be considered.

Situation-6: Buy > $389.73 was stopped two days after entry, and we would not enter at the signal of the exit candle.

Situation-7: the trade is still open at the point of writing this article.

In total: five winning trades, one loss, and one open trade: high probability as we strive for with short-term swing trading opportunities.

The NLT Timeless Swing Trading Concept is only one element of what we teach in the hours of working together.  Here a short overview of what you will all experience by operating with automated trading decisions in all of your accounts: 

NLT Learning Program Overview


Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour

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We are looking forward to hearing back from you.

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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