Where to put your focus and how to trade now and in the new year to come?
Money moves in and out of assets daily, and with a solid system on hand, you can participate and profit.
There are a couple of crucial positive and negative factors the market will consider in their investment actions.
Core Influences on the Financial Markets 2022
Long-term, our view for stocks is positive; however, we might see more substantial volatility on a shorter-term basis. Based on this, we focus on shorter-term instead of longer-term investments until the crucial factor of how a new breakout of COVID is resolved:
- Day Trading: E-Mini S&P 500 contract, Crude Oil Futures
- Swing Trading: Stocks for 1-10 days with NLT Indications
- Timeless Trading: for Stocks and Futures (focusing on price-based developments rather than time-based ones, acting below the market radar).
The crucial part of the new earnings season will start on January 14, 2022, when JPM will report on the 4th quarter earnings of 2021. What will be, in particular, important is their outlook for several industry sectors.
At NeverLossTrading, we start to look about 20-trading-days (four weeks) in advance to the earnings call for price move indications and act on them. Here is an example for NVDA:
NVDA, NLT Weekly Top-Line Chart, Sept. – Nov. 2021
The chart indicated Buy > $257.09, and we only act if this price threshold is surpassed in the price movement of the next candle, which was the fact. The system also indicated an expected price move of 2-SPU, reaching $295.50 (achieved). After that, the stock price went even higher and then fell back to the stated level.
Typically, we do not want to open or hold speculative positions two days before earnings and the day after.
The reason for this:
- High volatility and an unreasonable risk that stops getting triggered.
- Market-plays by big money flooding or shortening supply and triggering strategic price moves, which bare an unbalanced risk for the trader or investor
What to do if you hold a long-term position?
You work with a form of protection by adding options to the stock for not carrying a risk outside a set risk tolerance: no more than 5% risk per position.
SBUX, NLT Top-Line October/November 2021
The chart shows, we had two NLT Top-Line signals indicating buy opportunities when the price threshold was surpassed in the price movement of the next candle: This was the fact, and the system displayed a price target of $115, with entry at $110.15, a 4.4% return on cash when buying the stock and multifold when trading with an options strategy. This NLT signal also indicated that the target price should be reached in a maximum of five days, which was the fact.
As a trader or investor, always consider: you are making an assumption about the future outcome of a trade, but you are only in control of the risk by applying risk-limiting strategies.
All of this is learnable, and we are here to help in a one-on-one session, transferring the appropriate indications, strategies and risk-liming actions: Skills, rarely to be found but learnable.
If you want to see how our systems work, schedule a consulting hour: contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Demo.
Where to find your NLT Trading Potentials?
NLT Stock Alert Example for November 5, 2021
In the NeverLossTrading Alerts, we highlight stocks and commodities with a price move potential. Let us give you an example:
The NLT Alert reports on multiple levels are helping you to put those opportunities in action with conditional buy-stop or sell-stop orders. For example, the alert for November 5 showed two short trades: NFLX and BK. In the price continuation of the next day, only NFLX surpassed its price threshold and led to a trade.
NFLX with NLT Top-Line Signal for November 5, 2021
“Prediction is challenging, especially if it’s about the future;” hence, it is not uncommon for a company to beat expectations and share prices fall or report terrible earnings, and we see its stock rise.
Why does that happen?
It’s all about expectations, the appraisal, and the action of institutional money: This is why our indicators spot and follow institutional money flow to indicate with a high probability where the price move is most likely going to start and end.
Let us drill deeper by asking, who are the critical asset holders?
By category, we highlight the following key asset holders*:
*Data based on the research of Nobel Living, LLC
Prop-Traders, are the ones that move the market by acting shorter-term and producing vast exchanges of assets. They employ the best analysts and make the shift changes you can spot and follow as a retail trader when you have the proper instruments on hand. The fund managers follow prop traders and money flows in and out of assets daily and intraday, leaving a trace you can follow. Your significant advantage: You can open and close positions much faster than institutions can. By the magnitude of their holdings, they have to scale in and out, not radically changing the asset price.
NeverLossTrading Price Move Model
Theory: Key asset holders will have a solid need to re-balance their inventories. Thus, at a particular price expansion, they will either float- or shorten supply, which will result in an opposite directional price move that will then take away from our profits. Knowing this, we pre-calculate how far the expected price move will reach, and there we take profit, assuming it will retrace or reverse after.
Our brand name derives from the concept of repairing a trade instead of accepting a stop loss; however, Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy.
TradeColors.com is our introductory system to high probability trading. We always allow for upgrades; you only pay the difference if you start with TradeColors.com and upgrade after.
Many of our clients buy more than one system: Our systems are productivity tools, and by combining them, you produce a higher participation rate and higher returns.
Our tool to calculate the expected price move is the SPU = Speed Unit, and it indicates how far a price move shall reach until it comes to an end.
With our systems, you can operate with conditional buy-stop and sell-stop OCO orders (one-cancels-the-other). Without the need to be in front of your computer for the orders to execute. You are entering by price thresholds, ensuring that other market participants have the same directional assumption as you do and exit at the SPU target or adjust the trade at the stop.
By a change in the frequency and amplitude of the price movement over time, we specify indications to act on high probability price turning points, applying mechanical rules rather than leaving room for interpretation.
However, are there stocks we put in focus for 2022?
This time, we have none; we take those opportunities on the go and let our indicators tell when to buy or sell!
For 2021, we made specified stock picks, and we are happy to share what happened:
The yearend for a strong stock market year is on the horizon, and the next earnings season, we will, in particular, look at the outlook of the key influencers in the financial markets:
JP Morgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC). Aside from declaring their actual quarterly achievements, those companies forecast other company’s performance based on in-depth research and give expectation value for:
- Earnings per share
- Sales
- Profit margins
- Unit sales
These forecasts are considered in estimates by financial news organizations like Reuters and Bloomberg. At times, the numbers differ slightly, but they are generally very close.
The hype of earnings declarations comes about four weeks into the earnings season, when AAPL and AMZN report and give a core outlook for the sector. In addition, over 150 companies report earnings in a single day at the peak, offering you plenty of opportunities to participate in the markets with solid system indications on hand.
For you want to be ready, contact us for a demo and consulting hour:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj. Demo
We are happy to get together with you and find out which of our systems and strategies best suits your wants and needs:
- Operate with futures trading strategies
- Participate in short-terms swing trading opportunities
- Operate longer-term protected and hedged with long and short, income strategies for every type of account.
We are here to help you, solving five significant dimensions of trading, where many mistakes can be made:
- Trade entry decisions
- Exit decisions
- Stops (where to place them)
- Maximum time in a trade
- Risk to reward
In addition: we are offering a yearend special you do not want to miss out on.
We are happy to hear back from you.
Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)
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