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Saturday, April 15, 2023

Trading with the Minimum Principle

Forget trading often as possible; trade less to produce higher expected returns: Experience our concept of trading with the least involvement or risk, striving to achieve challenging set goals. Read on to learn how less trading produces more: – = +.

  1. Introduction

The minimum economic principle is a concept where you strive for a specified outcome or output with the minimum input of resources. In other words, the minimum principle helps you to allocate the optimal input to achieve a specified result. What does that mean for your trading?

Most traders strive for a positive winning average and take a high emotional toll when they face a losing streak. After four losses in a row, most people have no more confidence in their system and interact with trades instead of letting them come to system-specified targets.

Losses take a high emotional toll which often leads to unstructured trading decisions. Therefore, we want to introduce you to a strategy to minimize the maximum possible loss while striving for a specific set outcome.

Our more is less trading principle works for day trading, swing trading, or longer-term investing; however, longer-term is currently not our focus.

2. Market Appraisal

At the actual market conditions, our indicators show an NLT Purple Zone on the weekly chart for the S&P 500 (SPX)

SPX, Weekly NLT Top-Line Chart

NLT Purple Zones indicate directional price ambiguity, and as such, we do not engage in longer-term commitments as long as the market shows directional price ambiguity.

Hence our focus is day and swing trading. 

3. Day Trading

Let us pick day trading futures as an example. To get started, we work with you to achieve a pre-specified target, like $1,000, trading one futures contract per day by selecting trade setups of two underlings, /ES (E-Mini S&P 500) or /CL (Crude Oil), for example. Depending on your broker, the required capital for following this trading principle is between $2,000 and $12,000.

Trading with the NLT Timeless Concept, you need three weekly winners to achieve your goal. Considering that the maximum risk per trade should be 2% of your capital, you need an account size of about $20,000. In essence, you strive for a 5% return on cash per week.

When your weekly budget goal is met, you fold your trading activities and do something else. You can scale up by adding contracts after successfully producing the desired return for multiple weeks.

With the help of your system, you specify high-probability setups considering multiple evaluation points instead of just taking every opportunity on the go.

Your focus and effort are on a sound appraisal process rather than action-oriented trading.

Let us share an example of the most recent NLT trade indications for the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract.

The chart shows three trade situations, each spelling out a price threshold that leads to a trade when surpassed in the price continuation of the next candle. Dots on the chart indicate trade targets. The stop shows by a red crossbar. In some instances, multiple indicators announced a strong potential price move.

We recorded the chart on April 12, 2023, between 9 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. ET.

To enter the trade, we use buy-stop limit bracket orders that always comply with the NLT Timeless Concept and the system expected risk-to-reward relation.

With our systems and coaching, you follow a guideline of rules to find and follow through on high-probability trade setups.

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures on the NLT Timeless Chart

Check out if you could follow such trade indications, and please find more examples in prior publications on our blog.

4. Swing Trading

As a swing trader, you set the same budget, making $1,000 per week, achievable by three winning trades and holding an open position for one to five days. Applying NLT strategies, you can trade twofold:

  • NLT Timeless Swings (price increment-oriented charts)
  • NLT Time-Based Swings (daily charts)

Considering the 2% risk principle per trade and that you want to be able to go long and short at trading opportunities, your minimum swing trading capital should be $25,000. Hence, you strive for a 4% return on cash per week.

Here is an example of IBM on a daily chart after April 10, 2023, signal confirmation. The chart shows four trade situations: Three were confirmed and came to their system-set target. To follow the downside direction of the price move, you can either short the stock or trade with the help of the NLT Delta Force Options Trading Strategy, where the system defines the strike price to pick, the time to expiration and the maximum price to pay for a single option.

IBM, Daily NLT Top-Line Chart

The actual or last candle on the chart also shows a sell signal, which we will neglect for two reasons:

  • We never enter a trade at the exit candle
  • We only trade red and blue NLT Top-Line signals at the first or second candle of an NLT candle color sequence, and the last signal is on candle #4

On the top left, you can read on the NLT Dash Board that the trade was good for a 1.6% return on cash or a price move of $2.

There are rules and principles to follow; however, trading with the minimum principle is applicable and learnable. To best consider your needs, we teach and coach one-on-one at your best available days and hours. Write us an email, and we will jointly find out which system combination suits you best:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com  Subj.: Consultation

5. Conclusion

Will you always have winning weeks?

No, this will not always happen, but with the principle we share, losing streaks will be minimized with a focus on a positive expected return of your trading endeavors.

Trading success is based on risk control.

How much is the highest weekly loss you can allow yourself?

It would be $1,200 weekly; then you stop for a fresh start.

Many of our clients achieve a 70% win rate. Considering this, we calculate the following return expectation based on assuming full budget weeks on wins and losses.

ExampleProbabilityTrading WeeksResultTotal
Win70%50 $        1,000 $        35,000
Loss30%50 $        1,200 $        18,000
     $        17,000

Indeed this is a theoretical calculation; however, it demonstrates a solid annual return to striving for, assuming a capital need of $20,000 to $25,000.

6. Offer

We teach you in one-on-one sessions how to master the less is more trading approach, where you learn to analyze trade situations on the spot by letting the chart tell when to buy or sell.

Trading success requires discipline, patience, and a solid, high-probability system. It is also crucial to have a well-defined trading plan and to stick to it, even when the market gets volatile.

We are here to support you in mastering the market today. If you are ready to follow the minimum trading principle, check with us, and we will find out what system suits you best.

contact@NeverLossTrading.com  Subj.: Demo

NeverLossTrading is a trading education and software company that aims to help traders improve their performance and profitability in the financial markets by:

  • Personalized Coaching: in one-on-one sessions, you learn customized trading strategies that fit your unique needs and goals. This personalized approach can help traders better understand the markets and make more informed trading decisions.
  • Trading Software: NeverLossTrading offers proprietary software that provides real-time market analysis and trading signals. Our indicators are designed to help traders automate their trading decisions and execute trades with greater accuracy and efficiency.
  • Comprehensive Training: We provide extensive training and education materials to help traders learn the fundamentals of trading and develop the skills and knowledge necessary to succeed in the markets.

To succeed in trading, you best work with an experienced coach. Our #1 competitive advantage is the support and customer service we offer. Veteran traders have been through more ups and downs than you can imagine. So, experienced pros have probably experienced whatever you’re going through.

If you are ready to make a difference in your trading: We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong. Strive for improved trading results, and we will determine which of our systems suits you best. The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking. The markets changed, and it can be expensive if you do not change your trading strategies with them. However, you can make a difference with the right skills and tools!

Adding to your knowledge basis, we invite you to a free download of the newest Traders World Magazine Issue #88, where you can find our article on “Trading Skill Test,”; giving you feedback on where you stand today and where to improve.  

Hence, take trading seriously, build the skills, and acquire the tools needed. Trading success has a structure you can create and follow.

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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