Spot and Trade Institutional Money Moves

Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction for:

Day Traders, Swing Traders, Long-Term Investors

Saturday, February 25, 2023

Day Trading and Blitz Chess

Blitz chess and day trading are similar in their fast-paced and high-pressure nature.

Blitz chess is a type of chess where each player has minimal time to make their moves, often just a few minutes for the entire game: players must think and act quickly, making decisions on the fly and adapting to changing circumstances in real-time. Similarly, day trading is where traders buy and sell assets within one day, often making multiple trades and decisions based on real-time market data.

Both blitz chess and day trading requires quick thinking and decision-making under pressure, as well as the ability to adapt to changing circumstances in real time. In addition, both disciplines require a deep understanding of the underlying rules and mechanics of the game or market and a solid ability to analyze and predict outcomes based on available information.

However, there are also significant differences between blitz chess and day trading. For example, in blitz chess, players typically compete against a single opponent, while in day trading, traders compete against a large and complex market. Additionally, while blitz chess is a game of skill and strategy, day trading can involve significant risk and uncertainty, as traders must navigate fluctuating market conditions and make quick decisions based on incomplete information.

Actually, I am a decent blitz player, but there is no chance for me to beat Magnus Carlsen (world champ). However, we could undoubtedly show him how to trade the financial markets with the help of our systems, where you do not need to be in the top ten of the world to make money; you do this by following system indications and applying rules.

If you give yourself little time for acting, a high skill set is required, and this is where we come into play: NeverLossTrading is a technical trading strategy seeking to minimize losses and maximize gains. It is based on the principles of technical analysis and the idea that price movements can be predicted and used as a way of trading with a higher probability of success. The strategy involves using various indicators, which constantly adjust to actual and consider crucial support and resistance levels to identify entry and exit points. The method also requires discipline to stick to the rules and follow the plan, as it is easy to get carried away and make emotional decisions.

"NeverNossTrading" comes from the idea of repairing a trade instead of taking the stop; however, never stop loss trading was a bit lengthy. Hence, we do not want to portray a trading system that purports to allow traders to make profitable trades without ever experiencing a loss. Instead, we rely on high-probability trade setups and use algorithms to spot and act on crucial price turning points.

Let us share some chart situations and crucial decision-making points:

The following chart example will show potential instances to act based on the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract on February 22, 2023, combining NLT Top-Line, Trend Catching and NLT Timeless.

/ES, NLT Timeless Chart, February 22, 2023

On February 22, between 9:45 a.m. ET and 2:20 p.m. ET, seven opportunities showed on the chart. Each had a price threshold like buy > or sell <, allowing traders to operate with buy-stop and sell-stop orders. Gray dots on the chart specify the trade exits, and red crossbars the stop: this way, you select the price points for bracket orders. The candles on the chart appear by system-specified price increments where only price change is the determining factor, not time; hence, we call this NLT Timeless Trading. The average decision-making time to enter a trade was about five minutes, giving traders enough time to participate in the opportunities without being rushed.

Some of the rules to follow are:

  • On a down-move, we spare trading indications of a first-leg reversal but accept a trade indication on the second leg.
  • We do not enter a trade at the exit level of a prior indication.

Five of the seven trading opportunities were positive if you followed those rules and spared two instances where the indication did not work. If you purely mechanically accepted trade after trade, you won five out of seven (71%), which is on the rate of expectation. Our high probability systems focus on forecasting ≥ 65% of the opportunities to come to the system-defined targets.

More details are on the chart; we best explain those in a personal online meeting.

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Day Trading Demo

For day trading, Futures offer excellent opportunities. They trade six days a week and around the clock. However, our systems work for other assets like stocks, options, and FOREX. Besides day trading NLT Systems build a solid decision-making basis for:

  • Swing Trading (holding open positions for a couple of days)
  • Longer-Term Investing (holding positions for multiple weeks or months)

When you check our blog and YouTube channel,  you will find multiple examples of how NLT systems support your decision-making on high-probability setups, letting the chart tell when to buy or sell.

To demonstrate that we did not share a one-hit wonder, here is again an NLT Timeless chart for February 17, 2023, and it shows six opportunities, where five worked and one failed. However, had you considered the first leg rule, the instance marked as failure should not have been a trade for you.

We do not want to make it sound simple. Still, daily trading requires a solid skill base and training to overcome the emotions involved and apply a reliable situational analysis before acting by letting the chart tell when to buy or sell instead of assuming on your own what you feel will come next.

/ES, NLT Timeless Trading, February 17, 2023

We are long-termers in algorithmic trading. Our systems have AI components and help you to form sound decisions at high-probability setups, but there are rules to learn and follow. We teach those in one-on-one sessions at your best available days and times.

We helped many strive for their trading success and assure you it is not coming without sound knowledge and skill.

If you are ready to make a difference in your trading, we will share our experiences and help you build your trading success. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will determine which of our systems suits you best.

The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking. However, you can make a difference with the right skills and tools!

SPX, S&P 500 Index, NLT HF Price Turning Points

Imagine if you could spot and act on the price turning points our indicators put on the chart.

Hence, take trading seriously, build the skills, and acquire the tools needed. Trading success has a structure you can create and follow.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you.

Good trading,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support

Saturday, February 11, 2023

Work Attitude and Trading Attitude

Can you be a successful trader when you apply a solid work attitude of focus, get things done, work hard, and move forward?

When you are a trader or investor, you need to act like you are running your own business, not like an employee. Thriving businesses and traders follow a structure that contains multiple elements to cope with the complexities of the markets.

Trading and employee behavior: acting, when required, does not fit. Read on for a structure to establish and follow.

Business Plan

A business plan shall contain the following elements, and we translate this into actions for traders on how to go to market.

    Business PlanTrading
    Action Plan (what to accomplish)Which trades to conduct and which not
    Financial Plan (Revenue, Margin, Costs, Investments)How many trades, which risk/reward acceptance, %-risk-based investments, returns, max risk agreement
    Monitoring (Goals, Score Card, Review, Constant Improvement)Trading Journal, with review: stopping what is not working and intensifying what is

    Success has a structure, and if you are not applying a structured approach, your chances for a positive outcome will be random. In our mentorship, we write a business plan for trading success with each of our students, providing a guideline to follow and journaling the outcome for constant improvement.

    As said: trading and employee behavior: acting only when required does not fit!

    Odds Evaluation

    Why should you have a chance to succeed in your trading endeavors?

    Let us compare a structured business approach and the required action steps for Trading.

    Business WorldTrading
    Compare your offering to others and evaluate your chances to better your offeringCheck your system probability to see if you have an edge in setting system-based entries, exits, stops
    Check your way of going to market to see if it reaches your target clientsOperate with situation-specific risk-limiting trading strategies, not allowing for unbalanced risks
    Communicate your offering to potential clientsEstablish trade finders and be informed about crucial news events
    Set a price for your goods and servicesInvest in a proven system to follow long-term

    We could elaborate on those topics, but the key will be for you to check how you can bring a structure for success into your life as a trader or investor. We use the words trading or investing synonymously, behavior wise the same is required:

    • Traders hold open positions for shorter periods (day trading, swing trading)
    • Investors keep open positions for weeks, months, years

    Hence, we developed a little scorecard, where you see on the left what is needed and on the right what we usually find when we start working with new students:

    Trading and Investing Score Card

    #RequirementDesired   Usual
    1Following a System long-term100%   random decisions
    2System Probability ≥ 65%   51% to 55%
    3System-Defined Entries, Exits, Stops100%   situational
    4Risk Limiting Strategies100%   no risk control
    5Trade Finders (Scanners, Alerts)100%   random tips
    6Action Plan100%   random decisions
    7Risk/Reward Specification100%   nonexistent
    8%-Risk Money Management100%   nonexistent
    9Max Risk per Trade100%   nonexistent
    10Portfolio Hedging100%   none
    11Trading Journal and Review100%   nonexistent
    12Aware of Market-Impacting News100%   disregarded

    A dozen things to do, but when success has a structure, you know what to work on, or you leave your trading endeavors for a random outcome.

    We are long-termers in the trading business and helped many to strive for their trading success and can assure you it is not coming without putting checkmarks on the left column of the above table.

    If you like more insights into our way to market, we are happy to send you an article with multiple examples for day trading, swing trading, and longer-term investing. 

    contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Success

    The name NeverLossTrading derives from the concept of repairing trades: never stop loss trading was a bit lengthy. In no way do we want to promise never to lose a trade, but we propagate high probability trading for retail traders. We have been in business since 2008, helping individuals master the challenges of the financial markets.

    In the past, algorithmic trading was solely available to institutional investors, but we put in the work and effort to offer adequate systems to retail traders at affordable rates. Our offering for NLT systems ranges from about $2,500 for TradeColors.com to $15,500 for the combination of NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching, and we work one-on-one with you to apply our systems for your decision-making best.

    With NeverLossTrading, all financial markets can be traded, while we mainly focus on liquid markets in the arena of stocks, options, futures, and FOREX. We offer a robust framework of constantly adjusting to actual algorithms that contain an AI component and, with that, recalibrate constantly. Our systems provide broad flexibility because they allow us to scale up and react quickly in different products and markets. The most practical approach for us is to use algorithms to process data and then leave it to humans to make the decisions. Price, volume, and volatility are our data inputs to mathematical models. In addition, we teach various strategies to act on price changes, limiting the risk and leveraging profit opportunities.

    The advantage of NeverLossTrading is that it allows for the optimal use of available data and reduces or eliminates the emotional decision-making that can occur during trading.

    Our algorithms collect underlying changes in supply and demand to extrapolate potential price moves with system-defined entry, exit and stop decisions.

    Trading is learnable: we take a holistic approach considering all crucial elements needed to succeed: It takes multiple dimensions to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be, and we support you in acquiring the knowledge and skills needed.

    Success Factors for Trading and Investing

    NeverLossTrading stands for high-probability algorithmic trading, where you stay in command of pushing the trade opening button: target and exit are systems defined, and you will only act in situations where risk and reward are in a meaningful balance. We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

    Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

    The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

    We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

    Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

    www.NeverLossTrading.com

    Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support

    Saturday, February 4, 2023

    Tailor-Made Algorithmic Trading

    How to tailor your trading program to your wants and needs? Success has a structure, and if you are not applying a structured approach, your chances for a positive outcome will be random.

    Depending on which trading style fits your life, different concepts or structures support your goals.

    Therefore, we distinguish three trading styles and recommend choosing a style that fits your lifestyle, and indeed, you can combine trading styles:

    • Day Trading: Opening and closing positions the same day
    • Swing Trading: Keeping open positions for a couple of days
    • Longer-Term Investing: Holding open positions for weeks, months

    Our teaching and coaching are individual and focused on your preference, return expectations and available time. Over the years in business, we did not find two trades with precisely the same style or program adaptation; people are different in:

    • Overall time commitment
    • Time to trade and decide
    • Risk tolerance
    • Return expectations
    • The primary income, side income, retirement income
    • Account size
    • Affinity to assets (stocks, options, futures, FOREX)
    • Level of skill and knowledge
    • Average time to keep open positions
    • Account type: margin, IRA, 401(k)
    • Commitment to documentation and continued improvement

    Hence, our system and strategies adjust to you like a tailor-made suit because we know one size does not fit all!

    In any case, we can still share some base principles to consider through all trading styles and put those in a table for you.

    The Structure of Trading Success

    Trading StyleDay TradingSwing TradingLonger-Term
    SystemMechanicalMechanicalMechanical
    Return ExpectationExample: $1,000 per week trading one futures contract2% – 5% return on capital engaged per week2% to 5% return on capital engaged per month
    Activity (number of transactions)2-3 trades per day2-5 trades per week2-5 trades per month
    Risk Limiting StrategiesGivenCombining assets with optionsCombining assets with options
    Trade RepairNoneImportantImportant
    Asset PreferenceFutures, FOREX, StocksStocks & Options Futures, FOREXStocks & Options Futures, FOREX
    Average time in a positionMinutes or hours One to five barsOne to five daysOne to five weeks or one to five months
    Skill LevelHighest: solid short-term decisionsHighHigh
    DocumentationEvery trade and 20-trade reviewEvery trade and 20-trade reviewEvery trade and 20-trade review

    Let us elaborate on this:

    System

    You want a high-probability trading system that forecasts the price movement with clearly defined entry, exit, and stop conditions regardless of the time of holding positions. Give yourself little to no room for discretionary decisions: Trust your system and accept that you work with uncertainty at or above a rate of 65%, and we can help you achieve this.

    Return Expectations

    The higher your return expectations are, the better your skill and dedication need to be. If trading and investing were easy, nobody would ever go to work. Return, risk and investment size go hand in hand, and we share strategies to specify a fixed income per time period, achievable with a small number of trades.

    Why a small number of trades?

    Retail traders tend to overdo their trading activity and accept too much risk. Trading is all about risk control and folding when you achieve your goal. For example, when working with day traders who trade Futures, we specify two contracts to trade and complete the weekly income budget of $1,000. Depending on the broker you work with, you need about $2,000 to $12,000 of capital to conduct these trades. When you reach the budget consistently, upscaling (trading more than one contract) is the conclusive next step, and you follow the same principle.

    Here are two chart examples that combine NLT Top-Line, Trend Catching, and Timeless.

    The first chart shows five potential trade situations; each spells out a price threshold like Buy > $4068 and provides a basis to trade for a price change of about $300 of the underlying contract. To execute a transaction, we operate with a buy-stop bracket order, and the trade only goes to the exchange when in the price development of the next candle, the set threshold is reached and the order executed. Five trade situations were highlighted, and all met their desired target (gray dot on the chart). Non got stopped (red crossbar on the chart).

    E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Example

    Next, we pick a crude oil futures example for the same day.

    Crude Oil Futures Example

    The Crude Oil Futures Chart shows nine trade situations with the same conditions and price thresholds. Accepting trades mechanically, without the evaluation to learn: six trade setups came to target (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9), and two got stopped (4, 5).

    We hope you see in the red crossbars where to put the stop. Targets are expressed in dots, and we only enter into a trade when the price threshold is ticked out in the price movement of the next candle.

    We could add multiple charts, and if you want to see more:

    contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo

    Next, let us discuss swing trading and longer-term investing with the same principles:

    Imagine you are a swing trader, and you hold $50,000; a two percent return on cash would be, again, an income of $1,000 weekly. Now let us quickly calculate how many trades you need, winning two out of three to get to the budget, assuming that your accepted risk is 1.2 times your reward. So the answer is again about four trades. Hence, you do not need to transact that often to achieve your goals. The example for a longer-term investor with a 2% monthly return would calculate equally and ask for about four trades to complete the budget. We combine this concept in what we call less is more: – = +, but we wanted to give you a meaningful introduction to a different way of thinking and acting to achieve your trading goals long-term. Striving for constant income from the financial markets, you need more than a buy-and-hold strategy. You need the knowledge of how to combine, for example, stocks with options or trade options to limit your risk because opposite gaps quickly can get you way outside of your assumed risk and cut deep into your profits. When you get into action, you will notice that some trades go opposite, and then our method of trade repair comes into play, which gave us our brand name: Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy.

    Swing Trading Example QQQ

    The QQQ chart shows a swing trading example, and you see multiple directional indications with buy and sell thresholds: Buy > or Sell <, and we only act if the set number is reached in the price movement of the next candle. The holding time is a couple of days. Dots specify trade targets, and red crossbars are the stop levels.

    The daily NLT Speed Unit (SPU) for the QQQ swing trade is around 2.5% and as such, this is the return you strive for per trade. When using the NLT Delta Force Concept, surely multiple times higher, but you also have a higher associated percentage risk. In the continuation of this article you will learn how the return you strive for will support meaningful weekly swing trading goals and the QQQs are perfectly in spec. for stock and options trades.

    If you want to hold open positions for multiple weeks, the SPX provides a solid basis for longer-term positions. Again, you will find buy and sell indications with thresholds; horizontal lines build express supply lines on pullbacks, where we propose to exit in the current overall bear market.

    Longer-Term Trading Example SPX

    The SPX chart shows six trade situations where five worked according to plan and one failed.

    Depending on the account type you are holding, a change in strategy is required to participate in downside moves:

    • IRAs do not allow for short-selling stock, and we help you with the NLT Delta Force Concept to participate in falling prices by options trading strategies, allowed in this account type
    • If you are operating from a margin account, you have fewer limitations, but you must hold more than $25,000 to short stocks. Again, we provide options trading strategies that limit your risk and leverage your reward per trade.

    You now see how goal setting influences your way to market and requires you to change because needs constantly change, and you do not want to be left behind. So at this point, our support kicks in, and we provide the required tools and knowledge.

    Also, in day trading, we recommend formulating a goal and measuring success in getting there. Hence, we recommend that our traders work towards short-term budgets. For example, as a day trader, to produce an income of $1,000 by trading one contract of either the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract or Crude Oil Futures – two highly liquid assets with no limitations for following the up or downside direction. Then, when the weekly budget is hit, you stop trading. In addition, we encourage you to limit the maximum number of daily trades to three – following our concept that less trading is more: – = +. Finally, you restart the clock every week and journal your achievements to discuss what went right or wrong to improve your actions after every set of twenty trades. Depending on your broker’s margin requirement, you can participate in this exercise with a capital between $500 and $12,000.

    Day trading success has a structure or pattern to follow, and I want to show you some tools that can help you form sound decisions at high probable price turning points. We pick two examples to demonstrate what our systems can do and discuss the individual trade setups. Again, the systems will formulate buy or sell thresholds (buy < or sell >). Target (dot on the chart) and stop (red crossbar) are system set, allowing you to operate with buy-stop and sell-stop bracket orders. For days trading, we choose a timeless chart setup, where candles form purely price based, and the system sets the price increment to trade. With modern AI technology and highly probable algorithmic trading systems, your market outlook and action will change, helping you to form sound mechanical decisions and act repetitively. With what we show you, three to four weekly winning trades make the $1,000 budget. We then encourage you to stop trading: overtrading is one of the strongest pitfalls of a day trader: reach the budget and be good, and trust our advice: less trading is more: – = +.

    We share two examples showing NLT Timeless Day Trading Charts for the E-Mini S&P 500 and the Crude Oil Futures contract. On an NLT Timeless chart, candles are formed purely price-based, and the system defines the price increment to trade for. In our examples, we evaluate each signal as it appears valid while following the concept of less is more; you will learn during our trading sessions selection criteria to distinguish higher from lower probability setups.

    Risk Limiting Stragegies

    As a day trader, risk limiting is simple: you work with bracket orders (OCO, once cancels the other); however, your system, not you, needs to decide on entry, exit, and stop.

    When we come to swing trading or longer-term investing, you are exposed to overnight gaps that increase your risk acceptance. To get around an extended risk, combining, for example, stocks with options or trading options limits your risk exposure. We teach the NLT Delta Force Concept, which specifies at any point:

    • The strike price to pick
    • The time to expiration to choose
    • The maximum price to pay or apply a different strategy

    Skill and knowledge make a significant difference to your expected returns. We are here to support you in gaining the knowledge needed to strive for solid returns regardless of market direction.

    Trade Repair

    As a day trader, when a trade goes wrong, it goes wrong, period. We tested methods of opening up opposite-oriented trades but found no value in this concept. The reason is: we want to trade on solid system indications, and a transaction coming to a stop does not mean it allows for opening an opposite trade and successfully bringing it to target. In rare cases, was the stop-candle a candle with a strong opposite signal indication, and we are trading at high probability setups only. However, trade repair enormously impacts swing trading and longer-term investing. Imagine a set of six trades, each winning $1,000 or losing $1,200; when winning two out of three transactions, your expected income from a group of six trades is $1,600. If you reduce your losing trades through a trade repair to half ($600), the expected outcome is $2,800 or a 75% improvement, and often you can even do better or turn losers into winners. However, the average retail trader does not possess the skills we bring to the party and share in our mentorships.

    Skill

    Trading is not just about an indicator; it takes multiple dimensions to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be. Therefore, we support you in acquiring the necessary knowledge and skills.

    Success Factors for Trading and Investing

    To succeed in trading, you best work with an experienced coach and learn much about trading. Our #1 competitive advantage is the support and customer service we offer. We work one-on-one with you to specify what we teach to your specific wants and needs; hence, if your knowledge base is not expanding rapidly, you are doing something wrong.

    Ongoing education and mentoring are crucial to longevity in this business. Veteran traders have been through more ups and downs than you can imagine. So, experienced pros have probably experienced whatever you’re going through.

    If you are ready to make a difference in your trading:

    We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

    Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

    The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

    We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

    Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

    www.NeverLossTrading.com

    Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support