Spot and Trade Institutional Money Moves

Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction for:

Day Traders, Swing Traders, Long-Term Investors

Showing posts with label Swing Trader. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Swing Trader. Show all posts

Saturday, February 4, 2023

Tailor-Made Algorithmic Trading

How to tailor your trading program to your wants and needs? Success has a structure, and if you are not applying a structured approach, your chances for a positive outcome will be random.

Depending on which trading style fits your life, different concepts or structures support your goals.

Therefore, we distinguish three trading styles and recommend choosing a style that fits your lifestyle, and indeed, you can combine trading styles:

  • Day Trading: Opening and closing positions the same day
  • Swing Trading: Keeping open positions for a couple of days
  • Longer-Term Investing: Holding open positions for weeks, months

Our teaching and coaching are individual and focused on your preference, return expectations and available time. Over the years in business, we did not find two trades with precisely the same style or program adaptation; people are different in:

  • Overall time commitment
  • Time to trade and decide
  • Risk tolerance
  • Return expectations
  • The primary income, side income, retirement income
  • Account size
  • Affinity to assets (stocks, options, futures, FOREX)
  • Level of skill and knowledge
  • Average time to keep open positions
  • Account type: margin, IRA, 401(k)
  • Commitment to documentation and continued improvement

Hence, our system and strategies adjust to you like a tailor-made suit because we know one size does not fit all!

In any case, we can still share some base principles to consider through all trading styles and put those in a table for you.

The Structure of Trading Success

Trading StyleDay TradingSwing TradingLonger-Term
SystemMechanicalMechanicalMechanical
Return ExpectationExample: $1,000 per week trading one futures contract2% – 5% return on capital engaged per week2% to 5% return on capital engaged per month
Activity (number of transactions)2-3 trades per day2-5 trades per week2-5 trades per month
Risk Limiting StrategiesGivenCombining assets with optionsCombining assets with options
Trade RepairNoneImportantImportant
Asset PreferenceFutures, FOREX, StocksStocks & Options Futures, FOREXStocks & Options Futures, FOREX
Average time in a positionMinutes or hours One to five barsOne to five daysOne to five weeks or one to five months
Skill LevelHighest: solid short-term decisionsHighHigh
DocumentationEvery trade and 20-trade reviewEvery trade and 20-trade reviewEvery trade and 20-trade review

Let us elaborate on this:

System

You want a high-probability trading system that forecasts the price movement with clearly defined entry, exit, and stop conditions regardless of the time of holding positions. Give yourself little to no room for discretionary decisions: Trust your system and accept that you work with uncertainty at or above a rate of 65%, and we can help you achieve this.

Return Expectations

The higher your return expectations are, the better your skill and dedication need to be. If trading and investing were easy, nobody would ever go to work. Return, risk and investment size go hand in hand, and we share strategies to specify a fixed income per time period, achievable with a small number of trades.

Why a small number of trades?

Retail traders tend to overdo their trading activity and accept too much risk. Trading is all about risk control and folding when you achieve your goal. For example, when working with day traders who trade Futures, we specify two contracts to trade and complete the weekly income budget of $1,000. Depending on the broker you work with, you need about $2,000 to $12,000 of capital to conduct these trades. When you reach the budget consistently, upscaling (trading more than one contract) is the conclusive next step, and you follow the same principle.

Here are two chart examples that combine NLT Top-Line, Trend Catching, and Timeless.

The first chart shows five potential trade situations; each spells out a price threshold like Buy > $4068 and provides a basis to trade for a price change of about $300 of the underlying contract. To execute a transaction, we operate with a buy-stop bracket order, and the trade only goes to the exchange when in the price development of the next candle, the set threshold is reached and the order executed. Five trade situations were highlighted, and all met their desired target (gray dot on the chart). Non got stopped (red crossbar on the chart).

E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Example

Next, we pick a crude oil futures example for the same day.

Crude Oil Futures Example

The Crude Oil Futures Chart shows nine trade situations with the same conditions and price thresholds. Accepting trades mechanically, without the evaluation to learn: six trade setups came to target (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9), and two got stopped (4, 5).

We hope you see in the red crossbars where to put the stop. Targets are expressed in dots, and we only enter into a trade when the price threshold is ticked out in the price movement of the next candle.

We could add multiple charts, and if you want to see more:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo

Next, let us discuss swing trading and longer-term investing with the same principles:

Imagine you are a swing trader, and you hold $50,000; a two percent return on cash would be, again, an income of $1,000 weekly. Now let us quickly calculate how many trades you need, winning two out of three to get to the budget, assuming that your accepted risk is 1.2 times your reward. So the answer is again about four trades. Hence, you do not need to transact that often to achieve your goals. The example for a longer-term investor with a 2% monthly return would calculate equally and ask for about four trades to complete the budget. We combine this concept in what we call less is more: – = +, but we wanted to give you a meaningful introduction to a different way of thinking and acting to achieve your trading goals long-term. Striving for constant income from the financial markets, you need more than a buy-and-hold strategy. You need the knowledge of how to combine, for example, stocks with options or trade options to limit your risk because opposite gaps quickly can get you way outside of your assumed risk and cut deep into your profits. When you get into action, you will notice that some trades go opposite, and then our method of trade repair comes into play, which gave us our brand name: Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy.

Swing Trading Example QQQ

The QQQ chart shows a swing trading example, and you see multiple directional indications with buy and sell thresholds: Buy > or Sell <, and we only act if the set number is reached in the price movement of the next candle. The holding time is a couple of days. Dots specify trade targets, and red crossbars are the stop levels.

The daily NLT Speed Unit (SPU) for the QQQ swing trade is around 2.5% and as such, this is the return you strive for per trade. When using the NLT Delta Force Concept, surely multiple times higher, but you also have a higher associated percentage risk. In the continuation of this article you will learn how the return you strive for will support meaningful weekly swing trading goals and the QQQs are perfectly in spec. for stock and options trades.

If you want to hold open positions for multiple weeks, the SPX provides a solid basis for longer-term positions. Again, you will find buy and sell indications with thresholds; horizontal lines build express supply lines on pullbacks, where we propose to exit in the current overall bear market.

Longer-Term Trading Example SPX

The SPX chart shows six trade situations where five worked according to plan and one failed.

Depending on the account type you are holding, a change in strategy is required to participate in downside moves:

  • IRAs do not allow for short-selling stock, and we help you with the NLT Delta Force Concept to participate in falling prices by options trading strategies, allowed in this account type
  • If you are operating from a margin account, you have fewer limitations, but you must hold more than $25,000 to short stocks. Again, we provide options trading strategies that limit your risk and leverage your reward per trade.

You now see how goal setting influences your way to market and requires you to change because needs constantly change, and you do not want to be left behind. So at this point, our support kicks in, and we provide the required tools and knowledge.

Also, in day trading, we recommend formulating a goal and measuring success in getting there. Hence, we recommend that our traders work towards short-term budgets. For example, as a day trader, to produce an income of $1,000 by trading one contract of either the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract or Crude Oil Futures – two highly liquid assets with no limitations for following the up or downside direction. Then, when the weekly budget is hit, you stop trading. In addition, we encourage you to limit the maximum number of daily trades to three – following our concept that less trading is more: – = +. Finally, you restart the clock every week and journal your achievements to discuss what went right or wrong to improve your actions after every set of twenty trades. Depending on your broker’s margin requirement, you can participate in this exercise with a capital between $500 and $12,000.

Day trading success has a structure or pattern to follow, and I want to show you some tools that can help you form sound decisions at high probable price turning points. We pick two examples to demonstrate what our systems can do and discuss the individual trade setups. Again, the systems will formulate buy or sell thresholds (buy < or sell >). Target (dot on the chart) and stop (red crossbar) are system set, allowing you to operate with buy-stop and sell-stop bracket orders. For days trading, we choose a timeless chart setup, where candles form purely price based, and the system sets the price increment to trade. With modern AI technology and highly probable algorithmic trading systems, your market outlook and action will change, helping you to form sound mechanical decisions and act repetitively. With what we show you, three to four weekly winning trades make the $1,000 budget. We then encourage you to stop trading: overtrading is one of the strongest pitfalls of a day trader: reach the budget and be good, and trust our advice: less trading is more: – = +.

We share two examples showing NLT Timeless Day Trading Charts for the E-Mini S&P 500 and the Crude Oil Futures contract. On an NLT Timeless chart, candles are formed purely price-based, and the system defines the price increment to trade for. In our examples, we evaluate each signal as it appears valid while following the concept of less is more; you will learn during our trading sessions selection criteria to distinguish higher from lower probability setups.

Risk Limiting Stragegies

As a day trader, risk limiting is simple: you work with bracket orders (OCO, once cancels the other); however, your system, not you, needs to decide on entry, exit, and stop.

When we come to swing trading or longer-term investing, you are exposed to overnight gaps that increase your risk acceptance. To get around an extended risk, combining, for example, stocks with options or trading options limits your risk exposure. We teach the NLT Delta Force Concept, which specifies at any point:

  • The strike price to pick
  • The time to expiration to choose
  • The maximum price to pay or apply a different strategy

Skill and knowledge make a significant difference to your expected returns. We are here to support you in gaining the knowledge needed to strive for solid returns regardless of market direction.

Trade Repair

As a day trader, when a trade goes wrong, it goes wrong, period. We tested methods of opening up opposite-oriented trades but found no value in this concept. The reason is: we want to trade on solid system indications, and a transaction coming to a stop does not mean it allows for opening an opposite trade and successfully bringing it to target. In rare cases, was the stop-candle a candle with a strong opposite signal indication, and we are trading at high probability setups only. However, trade repair enormously impacts swing trading and longer-term investing. Imagine a set of six trades, each winning $1,000 or losing $1,200; when winning two out of three transactions, your expected income from a group of six trades is $1,600. If you reduce your losing trades through a trade repair to half ($600), the expected outcome is $2,800 or a 75% improvement, and often you can even do better or turn losers into winners. However, the average retail trader does not possess the skills we bring to the party and share in our mentorships.

Skill

Trading is not just about an indicator; it takes multiple dimensions to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be. Therefore, we support you in acquiring the necessary knowledge and skills.

Success Factors for Trading and Investing

To succeed in trading, you best work with an experienced coach and learn much about trading. Our #1 competitive advantage is the support and customer service we offer. We work one-on-one with you to specify what we teach to your specific wants and needs; hence, if your knowledge base is not expanding rapidly, you are doing something wrong.

Ongoing education and mentoring are crucial to longevity in this business. Veteran traders have been through more ups and downs than you can imagine. So, experienced pros have probably experienced whatever you’re going through.

If you are ready to make a difference in your trading:

We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support

Saturday, January 28, 2023

Trading Success

Success is the state or condition of meeting a defined range of expectations. Hence, we encourage traders and investors to specify an achievable goal and guide you with our tools and knowledge of how to get there.

We use the words trader and investor synonymously:

  • Traders hold positions for a shorter period, like day trading or swing trading
  • Investors for a more extended period, like days and months

When setting a goal, it needs to be attainable and measurable. Fund managers, for example, measure their achievements against an index and report how well they did in their periodic reports to the fund holders. An example could be, comparing the fund development to the S&P 500. However, market conditions have changed: We have been in a bear market for the past year and making money with buy and hold is not a successful strategy; hence, if you do not change your approach to the market, you compare yourself to a falling index while our goal for you is to achieve constant income from the market and set a goal of like: 2% or 5% return on cash per month, regardless of the direction the market takes. How would such a goal sound to you?

At this point, you need to change your way to market to aim for a 2% return on capital regardless of the market’s direction: it requires you to act with strategies that fit your account that accumulate income when the markets go up or down. What you need is:

  • A system that tells you crucial price turning points with specified entries, exits and stops as the maximum holding time for an open position
  • Strategies to participate in directional trades to the up and downside that limit your risk
  • Specify times when it is not wise to be invested by the market resting in a period of indecision (purple zone)

Let us pick a stock market chart and discuss:

Swing Trading Example QQQ

The QQQ chart shows a swing trading example, and you see multiple directional indications with buy and sell thresholds: Buy > or Sell <, and we only act if the set number is reached in the price movement of the next candle. The holding time is a couple of days. Dots specify trade targets, and red crossbars are the stop levels.

If you want to hold open positions for multiple weeks, the SPX provides a solid basis for longer-term positions. Again, you will find buy and sell indications with thresholds; horizontal lines build express supply lines on pullbacks, where we propose to exit in the current overall bear market.

Longer-Term Trading Example SPX

The SPX chart shows six trade situations where five worked according to plan and one failed.

Depending on the account type you are holding, a change in strategy is required to participate in downside moves:

  • IRAs do not allow for short-selling stock, and we help you with the NLT Delta Force Concept to participate in falling prices by options trading strategies, allowed in this account type
  • If you are operating from a margin account, you have fewer limitations, but you must hold more than $25,000 to short stocks. Again, we provide options trading strategies that limit your risk and leverage your reward per trade.

You now see how goal setting influences your way to market and requires you to change because needs constantly change, and you do not want to be left behind. So at this point, our support kicks in, and we provide the required tools and knowledge.

Also, in day trading, we recommend formulating a goal and measuring success in getting there. Hence, we recommend that our traders work towards short-term budgets. For example, as a day trader, to produce an income of $1,000 by trading one contract of either the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract or Crude Oil Futures – two highly liquid assets with no limitations for following the up or downside direction. Then, when the weekly budget is hit, you stop trading. In addition, we encourage you to limit the maximum number of daily trades to three – following our concept that less trading is more: – = +. Finally, you restart the clock every week and journal your achievements to discuss what went right or wrong to improve your actions after every set of twenty trades. Depending on your broker’s margin requirement, you can participate in this exercise with a capital between $500 and $12,000.

Day trading success has a structure or pattern to follow, and I want to show you some tools that can help you form sound decisions at high probable price turning points. We pick two examples to demonstrate what our systems can do and discuss the individual trade setups. Again, the systems will formulate buy or sell thresholds (buy < or sell >). Target (dot on the chart) and stop (red crossbar) are system set, allowing you to operate with buy-stop and sell-stop bracket orders. For days trading, we choose a timeless chart setup, where candles form purely price based, and the system sets the price increment to trade. With modern AI technology and highly probable algorithmic trading systems, your market outlook and action will change, helping you to form sound mechanical decisions and act repetitively. With what we show you, three to four weekly winning trades make the $1,000 budget. We then encourage you to stop trading: overtrading is one of the strongest pitfalls of a day trader: reach the budget and be good, and trust our advice: less trading is more: – = +.

We share two examples showing NLT Timeless Day Trading Charts for the E-Mini S&P 500 and the Crude Oil Futures contract. On an NLT Timeless chart, candles are formed purely price-based, and the system defines the price increment to trade for. In our examples, we evaluate each signal as it appears valid while following the concept of less is more; you will learn during our trading sessions selection criteria to distinguish higher from lower probability setups.

E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Example

The chart shows five potential trade situations; each spells out a price threshold like Buy > $4068 and provides a basis to trade for a price change of about $300 of the underlying contract. To execute a transaction, we operate with a buy-stop bracket order, and the trade only goes to the exchange when in the price development of the next candle, the set threshold is reached and the order executed. In the example from yesterday, from the perspective of writing and publishing this article, five trade situations were highlighted, and all came to their desired target (gray dot on the chart). Non got stopped (red crossbar on the chart).

Crude Oil Futures Example

The Crude Oil Futures Chart shows nine trade situations with the same conditions and price thresholds. Accepting trades mechanically, without the evaluation to learn: six trade setups came to target (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9), and two got stopped (4, 5).

The name NeverLossTrading derives from the concept of repairing trades: never stop loss trading was a bit lengthy. In no way do we want to promise never to lose a trade, but we propagate high-probability trading for retail traders and guide you with our tools and knowledge on your pass of trading success.

In the past, algorithmic trading was solely available to institutional investors, but we put in the work and effort to offer adequate systems to retail traders at affordable rates. Our offering for NLT systems ranges from about $2,500 for TradeColors.com to $15,500 for the combination of NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching, and we work one-on-one with you to apply our systems for your decision-making best.

With NeverLossTrading, all financial markets can be traded, while we mainly focus on liquid markets in the arena of stocks, options, futures, and FOREX. We offer a robust framework of constantly adjusting to actual algorithms that contain an AI component and, with that, recalibrate constantly. Our systems provide broad flexibility because they allow us to scale up and react quickly in different products and markets. The most practical approach for us is to use algorithms to process data and then leave it to humans to make the decisions. Price, volume, and volatility are our data inputs to mathematical models. In addition, we teach various strategies to act on price changes, limiting the risk and leveraging profit opportunities.

The advantage of NeverLossTrading is that it allows for the optimal use of available data and reduces or eliminates the emotional decision-making that can occur during trading.

Our algorithms collect underlying changes in supply and demand to extrapolate potential price moves with system-defined entry, exit and stop decisions.

Trading is learnable: we take a holistic approach considering all crucial elements needed to succeed: It takes multiple dimensions to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be, and we support you in acquiring the knowledge and skills needed.

Success Factors for Trading and Investing

NeverLossTrading stands for high-probability algorithmic trading, where you stay in command of pushing the trade opening button: target and exit are systems defined, and you will only act in situations where risk and reward are in a meaningful balance. We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

contact@NeverLossTrading.com  Subj.: Demo

The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support

Saturday, November 19, 2022

Trade on Solid Indications

Summary: Successful traders distinguish potential price moves that are random happenings from price moves that can be forecasted with a high probability. The science or art is in detecting signals and staying away from Noise.

More than 85% of all financial market transactions are institutional decision-based. Therefore, big money decides the direction and if a price-movement-initiation spotted is followed or countered. Hence, the market creates signal patterns that are detectable and predictable with a high probability. As a high probability situation, we specify a 65% or above predictability of the happenings to continue in the forecasted price direction.  

Let us take a signal transmission model: Filtering technology helps to detect the signal and filter out Noise. Even when a signal is distorted, models like the Hamming Distance help to identify the underlying movement and fill in what is missing to forecast the content to a specified target.

At this point, it might sound abstract; however, it builds a crucial part of our algorithmic trading systems with an AI component. For programming such a system, you first describe the natural happening, and such, we formulate some of the observations to take:

  • How do financial market transactions take place?
  • Who are the decision-makers, and what is the basis of their decisions?
  • How and when do price moves start and end?

Next is to find a mathematical model to replicate the actual market happening. Let me give you some examples:

  • We are assuming a Markov-Chain-Happening: forecastable action in a predictable frame of activities instead of considering a Finetti relation of a random happening.
  • Mandelbrot iterations help us to consider the action of now: The result of each market action is used as the starting value for the next iteration. The values are checked during each iteration to see whether they have reached a critical “trade” condition or “bailout.” If a trade condition is found, the calculation is stopped, and a potential signal is drawn on the chart, spelling out the next price value to be reached and the statistical volatility to get to the examined target value without a high likelihood of getting stopped.
  • Filtering technology to express higher over lower likelihood happenings
  • Price expansion calculation and stop, considering the actual statistical volatility of the happening.

What we explain above and more happens in the background, and we wanted to invite you into our thinking. However, you do not need to understand and learn all this. Still, we wanted to express that simple moving average calculations, or similar iterations will never be able to provide high probability trade setups. So we calculated the difference between a model with a 55% probability to one of 65% and estimated the expected win rate of 10 trades by a Bernoulli experiment to win six or more trades out of ten. We explained how to put together an experiment with marbles, but let us take a shortcut here:

  • A 65% system gives you a 75% chance to predict and win six or more out of ten trades.
  • A 55% only gives you a 50.4% chance for six or more winners (random predictability).

You know now why we propagate high over low probability for retail traders.

We offer several systems: TradeColors.com is our beginner system and is included in all other systems. In this publication, we like to share a combination of NLT Top-Line, Trend Catching, and NLT Timeless Indications.

NLT Top-Line has multiple price charts and lower study indicators for trading at crucial price turning points:

  • Strong Price Turning Points: NLT Power Towers stand tall and point a direction (blue and red, buy> and sell<)
  • Tops and Bottoms: NLT Early Buy or Sell, pointing out more considerable directional price moves (orange buy>, sell<)
  • End of Purple Zone. We color up-moves in blue and down moves in red; when a time of ambiguity in price direction (purple buy> and sell <).
  • Strong money in our outflow, showing institutional engagement (lower study)
  • Correlated or uncorrelated to the overall market move (lower study)
  • Historical price projection to understand what others expect (upper and lower study)
  • and more

NLT Trend Catching differentiates

  • Trend Initiation Signals (gray buy > and sell <)
  • Trend Continuation Signals (gray Buy_C and Sell_C)
  • Balance of Power: Buyers or sellers in Charge (lower study)

Why combine those systems?

For a higher participation rate: more trades and accuracy with indicators that take a different market cut by not being correlated.

NLT Timeless Day Trading Examples /ES

The chart works with price-based candles, not time-based. During the day session, three trading opportunities were highlighted, and all reached their target.

For day trading, we always operate with bracket buy-stop or sell-stop orders. The order is only filled when a pre-defined price level is reached and automatically stops and targets in place.

In our trading chart, we also consider price-volume happenings, and the colors on the volume bar tell a story of higher-level engagement on highlighted bars. The price-volume study is part of NLT Top-Line, and we run a yearend special for the system combination, which we are happy to share with you in a demo. 

contact@NeverLossTrading.com, Subj.: Demo

Following specific rules in trading is essential, leaving only very little room for discretionary decisions. Very little interpretation:

Trade What You See!

Let the chart tell when to buy or sell!

By the way, the brand name NeverLossTrading does not promise never to lose a trade; it derives from the concept of trade repair and Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy.

The following example shows an NLT Timeless Swing Trading example:

NeverLossTrading Timeless Swing Trading Chart

The chart shows NLT trade indications between July 25 and August 3, 2022, describing four situations we now explain:

Situation-1: After directional price ambiguity, the NLT Top-Line End of Purple Zone signal and the NLT Trend Catching Sell signal pointed down, and the trade direction was confirmed and came to target by reaching the gray dot on the chart.

Situation-2: A bottom was found, the buy signal confirmed, and an upside trade was initiated. The first target was at the gray dot. If you want to trail your transaction, use the red line of the blue frame and exit at the black dot or 3-SPU level.

Situation-3: A trend-continuation signal after a short retracement and another uprun to target or to be trailed with the red line the black dot: 2-SPU level.

Situation-4: on August 1, 2022, an NLT Purple zone opened and told us not to initiate swing trades until it was over.

After the NLT Timeless examples, let us dive into time-based trading: We use the same indicators and pull up a price chart for Apple Corp. (AAPL) from June 8 to August 3, 2022.

Do you see four or potentially five trading opportunities (one short – sell signal in red – and three long opportunities – buy signals in gray and red)?

If yes, you understand what we mean by letting the chart tell when to buy or sell; if not, challenge us for a free demo:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj. Demo.

AAPL Daily NLT Chart: NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching

The trade situations on the chart are not magnified, leaving it up to you to test what you see, and when you look closer, you will experience why we say:

Let the chart tell when to buy or sell – trade what you see!

Only if you have a solid decision-making base, supported by a system that helps you to identify high-probability trade setups, will you have the chance to trade for constant income from the financial markets as a time-based or timeless trader. You can learn both concepts in our mentorships and more.

We know and acknowledge that every trader is different. Hence, we tune our systems and teach to your specific wants and needs, supporting you to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be, teaching one-on-one at your best available days and times.

Let us share an overview of learning elements to take away from our training and coaching sessions, which vary based on the system you choose, from four to twenty hours of teaching.

Summary of learning elements:

  • Acting with a system probability > 65%
  • Mechanical rules for entry, exit, and stop
  • Trade at perfect moments only
  • Consider overall factors, patterns
  • Risk and reward in an acceptable balance
  • Risk-averse trading
  • Holding positions to target
  • Do not add to losers
  • Stick with a trading strategy. Follow a business plan – action plan and financial plan
  • Trade for meaningful price moves
  • Systematic trading
  • Having a mentor to learn from

We also help you to journal your trades. Such a journal provides excellent feedback on how you are developing, and you will find a perfect example in this article on our Blog: How to Control Your Trading Results

To succeed in trading, you best work with an experienced coach and learn much about trading. Our #1 competitive advantage is the support and customer service we offer. We work one-on-one with you to specify what we teach to your specific wants and needs; hence, if your knowledge base is not expanding rapidly, you are doing something wrong.

Ongoing education and mentoring are crucial to longevity in this business.

Veteran traders have been through more ups and downs than you can imagine. So whatever you’re going through, experienced pros have probably experienced it already.

If you are ready to make a difference to your trading:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Demo.

We are ready to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

We are happy to hear back from you,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support

Saturday, October 29, 2022

What is the Basis of Your Trading Decisions?

Some claim that the stock market development is a random walk; however, this is only the case when you have no tools to analyze the underlying currents of the happening.

We want to invite you to experience and forecast price moves from a new perspective, helping you to participate in up and down movements from any account, even from an IRA.

Read on and watch the movie…

What appears like a chaotic reaction often has an underlying structure to forecast the happening with a high likelihood. Our algorithms see the price development embedded in a Markov chain, where the next happening is correlated to the last occasion and is not totally independent.

What is coming next in the stock market?

The chart shows a two-year development of the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. Since the beginning of the year, the technology-heavy NASDAQ 100 has been underperforming and dragging the indexes down.

What does that mean for your portfolio if you hold one?

The pressure is on:

  • There is a solid chance that the indexes will drop another 20% (see the red projection shade on the chart).
  • Big money managers already took a substantial hit; why should private investors be spared?

12-Months Development of the Largest Money Managers

The table above shows a substantial market capitalization deterioration over the last twelve months. A typical bear market reaction and your portfolio, so you hold one in the form of an IRA, 401(k), or other conditions, might not look much different, and we have not seen the bottom yet.

However, you can make a difference with instruments on hand that project a change in price direction.

BLK on the Daily NLT Top-Line Chart

Like in a seismic reading, pre-eruptions indicate a potential price movement and extrapolate the incident by what has happened before. In our model, the price needs to move out of containment to fulfill the forecasted move with a high likelihood. This way, we anticipate other market participants to trade along with our directional assumption and drive the price move to the forecasted target.

On the chart, we highlighted four potential price turning points. At each, our NLT Top Line indicators pointed the direction to either buy or sell when the formulated price threshold of buying> or selling< were fulfilled in the price movement of the next candle. This way, buy-stop or sell-stop orders are filled:

Situation-1: Buy > $629.65. The price movement of the next candle took out the price threshold, and a long trade was initiated to the second target dot on the chart, where it got, and the trade was closed. Then you had multiple re-entering opportunities after the candles with the cyan arrow and dot, or you could trail the stop with the red line and the lower side of the blue frame.

Situation-2 had an orange sell signal. This signal occurred as an early directional change signal and was followed up by an NLT PowerTower (red signal, Sell < $712.31) and led to a short trade until the second target dot was reached.

Situation-3: Sell < $643.31. The direction of the trade was confirmed by ticking below the set price threshold, and a short trade to the second target dot followed.

Situation-4: Buy > $578.34 was not accepted as a trade potential. The reason for this: V-Shape reversals occur only in 15% of the cases, and we are probability thinkers and only take high-probability setups. Hence we disregarded this first leg up.

Suppose you are trading from an IRA or Cash Account, where short-selling stock is not allowed by SEC regulations. In that case, you learn to participate in the downside price movement by a simple options strategy with the help of the NLT Delta Force Concept:

  • It specifies the stock options Delta you buy
  • The time to expiration to pick
  • And the maximum price to pay for the option

Our concept demystifies options trading and gives you a clear perspective of what to do, how, and when.

For day traders, we are working on an idea where we encourage them to trade less, not more, to reduce the failure rate.

We combine multiple indicators in the chart example of Friday, October 21, 2022.

The chart shows three validated trade indications that came to the pre-defined target.

  • Dots on the chart are targets
  • Red crossbars are the stops
  • Buy and Sell thresholds indicate opportunities

E-Mini S&P 500 Timeless Day Trading Chart

As a trader, you are handling probabilities and only want to risk your money when the odds are in your favor. So let us invite you to two ideas of how to address today’s markets:

  • As a day trader using NLT Timeless Charts with system-compliant reward/risk setups
  • As a swing trader or longer-term investor, learning how to operate during the earnings season

We have two publications ready for you, reply if you want to learn more, and we will be happy to share our findings.

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Day Trading

contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Swing Trading

To succeed in trading, you best work with an experienced coach and learn much about trading. Our #1 competitive advantage is the support and customer service we offer. We work one-on-one with you to specify what we teach to your specific wants and needs; hence, if your knowledge base is not expanding rapidly, you are doing something wrong.

Ongoing education and mentoring are crucial to longevity in this business. Veteran traders have been through more ups and downs than you can imagine. So, experienced pros have probably experienced whatever you’re going through.

If you are ready to make a difference in your trading:

We are happy to share our experiences and help you build your trading business. Trading is not a typical career, and you best learn from those who are long-term in this business to cope with the rollercoaster of the financial markets. We are here to help and provide feedback on what you might be doing right or wrong.

Strive for improved trading results, and we will find out which of our systems suits you best.

The markets changed, and if you do not change your trading strategies with them, it can be a very costly undertaking.

We are happy to hear back from you,

Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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