Spot and Trade Institutional Money Moves

Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction for:

Day Traders, Swing Traders, Long-Term Investors

Sunday, February 13, 2011

NeverLossTrading: Stock Market Outlook 2011


Our method of trading is applicable to various markets: Stock Market, Commodities, Currencies, Treasuries and their derivatives, like options and futures.In this publication we want to focus on the market with the most common interest: The stock market. But prior to telling which market sectors and stocks we favor, it is important to know that we only act if the overall market dynamic proves our analysis right. Let us share some of our imperatives:
  • We and nobody else knows where a share price will move to next.
  • We do not believe in great tips from people who portrait that they know.
  • The NeverLossTrading concept spots price action of institutional money on all time frames and reaps the benefits by following
    where the big money is going.
Even so we have a predefined and foundation based market interpretation, we will wait until we get it confirmed and enter into a trade when the movement starts. Over time we developed a variety of market indicators to spot the beginning and end of such movement.

This key question is often raised to us: Do you not lose time and profitability by entering late?
Find our answer: tab OUTLOOK 2011

So much to our core principles, now we want to share how we analyzed the stock market for 2011. Besides an overall appraisal we focus on sector development, knowing that institutional investors do the same and with that we want to be prepared if a move happens to jump in and when it ends to jump out. This spells out another of our core principles: We are not proposing long term buy and hold strategy but rather a buy and sell strategy where we act on an our entry signals for the underlying financial investment instruments and in the same way act on exit signals. Now to our 2011 analysis:

Stock Market Evaluation by NeverLossTrading

Situation Analysis: High corporate earnings are reflected in continues stock market growth. All sectors recovered while the major grows was initiated by a few companies with breakthrough consumer oriented information technologies and services.  Other markets followed and build a solid platform of earnings on modest revenue growth for 2011.

To define our preferred market focus areas, we are using a scoring model that rates growth achievements paired with sectors earnings  and combines this score with the market power potential of the examined segment. Besides overall growth strategies, the NeverLossTrading concept provides a trading plan for down-trending and sideways-trending markets.

In a short summary, here is our stock market preference list for 2011:

Harvesting Strategy
  1. Information Technologies:   We specifically focus on companies related to data, network services and innovations
  2. Financials: Our first focus are institutions that benefit from growth in the financial markets: GS, JPM, BRK.B,BEN. On a sign of recovery we will
    jump on BAC and C but else stay out of banking.
  3. Consumer Companies: We go with the world market leaders based on technology, service, unique product offering.
  4. Industry: Again, we pick world market leaders with innovation potential.
  5. Others: We are very selective in Energy with focus on new energies and resourceful nergy recovery or production and apply the same rinciple
    to the pharmaceutical sector and only invest in companies with innovations on he horizon.
Shorting Strategy
  1. Telecommunication: On a sign of weakness this is where we will short the market, expecting  troublesome year and years to come for all major telecommunication companies.
Download the detailed report at Tab OUTLOOK 2011