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Friday, July 30, 2010

Stock Market News by NeverLossTrading: Where is the Economy and the Stock Market Heading Towards?

We still have a mixed bag of fantastic earnings and uncomfortable economic news. Today we first picked up a bearish sentiment and later in the day the news got digested and turned into a more positive outlook.
What is going on?

Our summary: American Corporations got more efficient and will never rehire the amount of people they worked with prior. Basically the Government now employs all those qualified and willing to work people on the unemployment role. Europe has that problem since 30 years, now America got hit. The economy is growing. This week we have seen consumer companies and all others reporting growth in revenue and fantastic earnings. What was shown in earnings is just fabulous. When stocks are measured on P/E (price/earnings) we have a season of growth in front of us. But on the other side America has to get used to 10% unemployment and needs to restructure taxation, healthcare and lending policies, which will affect three big and influential Dow and S&P sectors: Financials, Banking, Healthcare. With an overall need for restructuring value added tax and the entire taxation system, all sectors will take a beating. But you know what: there is no place like America in respect of dealing with changes –whatever comes along will be turned into being ahead of the world and more profitable.

For all financial market investors times of as season of uprising stock prices based on growth and profitability is ahead of us, followed by beaten down bear rallies on every change in lending, taxation and healthcare that will need to come our way. For those who like to make money through financial market investments (401(k), IRA, Personal, Custodian, Margin Accounts) in the next 5-10 years, you better learn to make money in up, down and sideways markets bye hedging and leveraging your investments: is here to teach you.

Today July 30, 2017, Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan released their final report on consumer sentiment in the month of July, showing that the consumer sentiment index was upwardly revised by more than expected but continued to show a notable deterioration in sentiment compared to June. The report showed that the consumer sentiment index for July was upwardly revised to a reading of 67.8 from the preliminary estimate of 66.5. While the revised reading came in above economist estimates of 67.5, it remained well below the June reading of 76.0. Whatever face lifting we do, consumers are not confident in the economy yet. The high unemployment with no clear solution brings a Bearish Sentiment.

Richard Curtin, Surveys of Consumers chief economist, said, "Scarce jobs and stagnating incomes have been the top concerns of consumers for some time."

The Institute for Supply Management - Chicago said its business barometer rose to 62.3 in July from 59.1 in June, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in Chicago-area business activity. The increase surprised economists, who had expected the index to fall to a reading of 56.3. This is sure not a surprise: raising profits and cash on hand give a better outlook: Bullish Sentiment.

The Commerce Department said that gross domestic product: GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter compared to the revised 3.7 percent jump seen in the first quarter. Economists had expected GDP to increase by 2.5 percent compared to the 2.7 percent growth that had been reported for the first quarter. The economy is growing, price competition still keeps the growth in a smaller scale but overall a Bullish Sentiment.

Earnings News:

Chevron Corp. (CVX) reported second-quarter net income of $2.70 per share, up from $0.87 per share in the same quarter last year. Wall Street analysts expected the company to report earnings of $2.44 per share for the quarter. The firm posted revenues of $51.05 billion, which was short of the $52.52 billion projected by analysts.

Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) reported adjusted second-quarter net income of $0.86 per share, topping expectations for $0.83 per share. Unadjusted net profit fell by roughly 50 percent to $0.24 per share. Sales for the quarter came in at $11.35 billion, short of the consensus estimate for $11.45 billion.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Stock Market: Bearish Sentiment Picked Up

July 29, 2010: Our late night market analysis sees for the first time since July 6, 2010 a bearish sentiment over the bullish stock market move we are currently in.
We filter market sentiment from multiple indicators we run at night. For the first time we want to initiate a warning on the overall bullish trend we committed to in our prior publications and get prepared for a bearish reversal.

Stock Market: Economic News and Outlook by NeverLossTrading

We are facing a time with great corporate earnings and a to be continued high unemployment rate. Corporations learned to work more efficient and will not rehire the same amount of people to get the job done. The economy overall is strengthening and the stock market decides day by day what news drives the market up or down.

Today, July 29, 2010 great earnings reports were continued and no change on the unemployment situation lead to a negative market direction after a start on the high side. Overall we are still bullish and here are the reasons why:

This morning the Labor Department released a report showing that jobless claims in the week ended July 24th were basically on the rate of expectation and show give or take not improvement. The rate of change is less than one standard deviation from the mean value and with that does not give any tendency. Jobless came in at 457,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 468,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to be at 460,000 from the 464,000 originally reported for the previous week. Overall not bettering in the unemployment situation is a clear Bearish signal and made the market sell off after a good start.

In earnings news:

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) reported second-quarter net income of $1.60 per share, topping estimates that called for $1.47 per share for the period. Total revenues rose to $92.49 billion but fell short of the $98.49 billion fore cast for the quarter. Solid earnings and money for investment: Bullish.

Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) also revealed its financial results for the second quarter, including earnings of $1.17 per share compared to estimates for $1.16 per share. Sales for the quarter totaled $3.81 billion, up from $3.74 billion in the prior year (+1.8%) quarter but short of estimates for $3.94 billion. This is a real consumer company and it made a modest growth in a very price promotion driven market: Bullish.

Motorola Inc. (MOT) reported adjusted second-quarter earnings of $0.09 per share, just above Wall Street estimates for $0.08 per share. Net sales for the quarter came in at$5.414 billion, which beat forecasts for $5.19 billion for the quarter. Innovation counts and those who have it increase in sales: Bullish.

Japanese electronics giant Sony Corp. (SNE) reported a profit for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 compared to a loss in the same period last year. The company also raised its full year earnings outlook and maintained its revenue guidance. The signs of Sony are difficult to read, the technology leader of consumer electronics of the past has shown little to no innovation leadership in the last 10 years and restructured themselves into the positive. No real market sentiment.

Credit card service provider Visa Inc. (V) said that its third-quarter profit declined 2 percent from last year, with the drop primarily due to lower investment income. Looking ahead, the company reaffirmed its earnings outlook for fiscal years 2010 and 2011. If you do not give credit, you have no earnings. Today, credit card companies try to get 15% annual plus finance charges from their clients. This is a huge margin, considering money at 3%, but if you keep credit tight, the earnings potential gets small. No real market sentiment.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

US Markets on Hold after Economic News

Today the market was digesting fabulous earnings, better housing numbers, a lower consumer confidence and lower Durable Goods Orders and a mixed bag Federal Reserve report. The market reacted with a small sell off, but what is behind the news and what shall individual investors focus on?
On the earnings front today:

Boeing Co. (BA) reported second-quarter earnings of $1.06 per share, topping forecasts for $1.01 per share, while its revenues for the quarter came in $15.57 billion, short of projections of $16.13 billion for the period. Hence, better earnings and slightly less sales, but overall healthy: Bullish sentiment.

Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) reported a wider second-quarter net loss compared to last year, showing a loss of $0.25 per share compared a loss of $0.13 per share last year. On average, analysts expected a loss of $0.20 per share for the quarter. The company also posted second-quarter revenues of $8.02 billion, which were just short of the $8.03 billion estimated on Wall Street. For Sprint it is hard to be a domestic number three with no clear point of differentiation, tmobile, vergin mobile, vergin atlantic and other providers right at their heels: No real sentiment indicator form this.

ConocoPhillips (COP) reported a surge in its second-quarter earnings to $2.77 per share, while its adjusted quarterly earnings came in at $1.67 per share. Analysts had forecast the firm to earn $1.56 per share for the quarter. ConocoPhillips also announced that it will sell 40 percent of its stake in Lukoil back to the firm for approximately $3.4 billion. The firm said its remaining 60 percent stake in Lukoil are depositary receipts and are expected to be sold in open market transactions or to Lukoil by the end of 2011.

Economic Indicators:

The Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods fell by 1.0 percent in June following a revised 0.8 percent decrease in May. The drop in orders came in line with economist estimates, while the decrease in orders in the previous month was revised from the 0.6 percent decline that had been reported. Excluding a 2.4 percent decrease in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders fell by a more modest 0.6 percent in June compared to a 1.2 percent increase in the previous month. The decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected ex-transportation orders to increase by 0.6 percent. By our means. Why to order transportation goods in a market with enough capacity are the orders for durable goods usually in the books of American companies. Working with the Automotive, Beverage-, Food-, Packaging- and other industries we seen a clear dominance in this sector by European, Japanese and Korean companies. When we trace back in time for a week, Germany reported a 27% increase in export – isn’t this base on US orders? Hence, we conclude that this is not really a market sentiment indicator.

This afternoon the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report, an assessment of economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts and now we need to wait how big money decides to interpret the new economic publication. Let us have the facts prior to going to interpretation:

The Fed's latest beige book report of economic conditions showed improvement in most of its 12 regional districts, but with only modest advances in retail sales and weak numbers in housing and construction. Bank lending, meanwhile, was still tight. Let us summarize: We show an improved economy and solid corporate earnings. Surely based on high unemployment and tight lending: housing, construction and consumer spending comes tight. It is hard to do deficit spending if the banks and credit card companies do not allow.


Based on higher profits more money will flow into the investment stream and stimulate other sectors. The recovery of the average consumer confidence will take: Corporations restructured, got more efficient and will not rehire the amount of people they worked with before. As a result we have an underlying bullish sentiment in a bear market and can expect steep up and down swings which will be wearing hard on the average investor who just holds Shares and Mutual Funds. To make money in the stock market people need to learn to trade the up and downside of the market, only hold shorter term positions. Futures, Options and Forex are the ideal investment instruments and is an ideal place to learn in 3 days how to apply them right to a better financial future. This counts for any account: 401(k), IRA, Personal, Margin, Custodian. Even if you might think that you are limited in your 401 (k) portfolio, NeverLossTrading will teach you that you are not and there are many ways to hedge and leverage your retirement account in the same way and manner as your personal accounts.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Stock Market News: Are we Bullish or Bearish

What did the news say today?

• a more sizable than forecast pickup in home prices , solid corporate earnings, S&P Growth: Bullish

• a disappointing reading on consumer confidence: Bearish.

What do the news tell us today?

We are having an economic recovery with continues high unemployment. This was all seen in Europe and started there 30 years ago. To cope with this problem Europe restructured and build a sound welfare system: When companies don’t employ people, they need to live from something. This is sure unknown for America and seeing your neighbor unemployed for long even though he is skilled and willing to work makes consumers growing increasingly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook.

The consumer sentiment will change: Corporations will no more run layoffs and those who work will feel money to spend which will change their sentiment, but it will take.

The government has to restructure unemployment support, availability of health care and the taxation system to handle 10% unemployment in their balance sheet.

So short term we are getting ready for a bullish market sentiment and every time the government or Fed will touch one of the instruments they have to cope with the overall unemployment problem: interest, tax, healthcare, welfare. The market will go berserk and give us big junks of retracements.

What do we do to benefit from this: Swing Positions in options, Day Positions in Futures and Currencies no Equities (Shares, Mutual Funds, ETF’s). To handle those types of investments we highly recommend a Market Investor Education with

Here are a few more overall bullish market indicators. Today we take on the Chemical industry, it usually provides and early economic indicator and the sings are: Bullish.

DuPont (DD) reported adjusted second-quarter net income of $1.17 per share, firmly topping forecasts for $0.93 per share. Net sales for the quarter came in at $8.62 billion, also beating expectations that called for $8.23 billion for the period. The European based second chemical giant: BASF is doing as well or even better.

BP Plc (BP) unveiled a $17.2 billion second-quarter loss due to $32.2 billion in charges related to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The loss came after a profit of $4.39 billion in the same period last year. The firm also named managing director Robert Dudley as its new chief executive, replacing Tony Hayward, starting in October. Dudley will be the first American to head the company. From an investor perspective, BP assumes to get away within spending about a 1 year income to clean up the oil spill generated and wants to get out of the news by replacing the CEO (sure we do not need to worry about him, he has a package that gets him over the hump).

Sunday, July 25, 2010

This Week the Stock Market will be Weighed – Mene, Mene, Tekel

After a week of great earnings announcements that were looking back, the overall economy and the stock marked with be weighed on the scale of the outward economy.

Volatility is expected and the smart money will work out if the marked it found wanting or if the new uptrend gets confirmed. MENE, MENE, TEKEL – the writing is on the wall for the big money to interpret and best for us to do, is just to follow on a day trading basis the overall bullish sentiment that started last week.

Monday and Tuesday will give us first sentiment readings to be decided on Wednesday and Friday.

Trading the markets never gets boring.

Good Trading,


Saturday, July 24, 2010

Stock Market: We are Bullish for Now!

If you had that chart and knew you trade towards the downside, when the overall notion is red; to the upside if the overall notion of the chart is green and if a blue back shadow occurs, expect a change in direction, would that help your trading?

We sure think so and we are the only company in the market with an indicator that clearly spells out when not to trade: NLT Nominator – this one makes the call.

For now, we only teach small groups of 5 – 20 participants. If you are the initiator of a seminar in your city, we give you 50% off.


Thursday, July 22, 2010

Stock Market News and Truth by NeverLossTrading

Wow, what a Stock Market Rally. How did this one come. Take a short moment and check out our reports from yesterday:

Now we get to the points:

The market reported a softer than expected decline in existing home sales. NAR said existing home sales fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million units in May. Economists had been expecting existing home sales to show a steeper decline to a 5.09 million unit rate. So with the advanced sales by the government stimulus program this is a good sign.

Let us take a look in the world: Eurostat reported that orders for industrial goods in the euro zone rose 3.8 percent in May, a jump of nearly 22.7 percent compared to the same period last year. The figure surprised economists, who had forecast flat monthly orders. But why did this figure rise? US-companies make profits and invest further into machinery that is often bough from Europe.

Now we come to realization: The US companies restructured, highly profitable and have money to spend. They get it done with less people and this will be a given and the Government now owns the liability for all those people who cannot find a job. Look at today’s Labor Department report: showing that jobless claims jumped to 464,000 in the week ended July 17th from the previous week's revised figure of 427,000. Economists had expected weekly jobless claims to increase to 445,000 from the 429,000 originally reported for the previous week.

On the earnings front, construction machinery manufacturer Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) reported second quarter net income of $1.09 per share, topping forecasts for $0.85 per share for the period. Sales and revenues for the quarter totaled $10.409 billion, firmly beating forecast for $9.80 billion. The company's median forecast for earnings and revenues for fiscal 2010 was also above analyst expectations. Again somebody who sells machinery to those who have money.

Economic bellwether United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) reported second-quarter net income of $0.84 per share, which was above analyst consensus of $0.77 per share. Total revenues for the quarter rose to $12.20 billion from the $10.83 billion posted in the prior year quarter. Analysts had consensus revenue estimate of $11.98 billion for the period. Where there is freight there are goods exchanged.

3M Co. (MMM) said its second quarter net income came in at $1.54 per share, beating estimates for $1.48 per share. Net sales for the quarter rose 17.7 percent to $6.73 billion, also topping estimates that called for $6.66 billion. The firm also boosted its 2010 sales growth expectations.

So the economy does better that previously reported. The key problem is that there is not enough jobs and new jobs will most likely not be created with the rate of revenue and profit growth. This leads into a future where at one point the government needs to restructure taxes and health care to cope with the additional spending. Considering this, we see whip slash market ups and downs which are good for the day trader and hard for the long term investor who one day will be in heaven and in hell the next.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Tomorrows Stock Market Potentials by NeverLossTrading

Today, July 21, 2010, 11:30 EST the stock markets point slightly down. Is it because of earnings?

Definitely not. The good thing is, we show favorable earnings from key players and revenue increases from wide spread companies like Coca-Cola, Yahoo and United Technologies. Meaning: there is people and companies out there consuming and investing, which gives us a positive rather than an negative market outlook.

See the details:

On the earnings front today, financial services firm Morgan Stanley (MS) reported second-quarter net income of $1.09 per share compared to a net loss of $1.10 per share in the year-ago period. Excluding income from discontinued operation, the firm reported net income of $0.80 per share.

Analysts expected Morgan Stanley to report earnings of $0.46 per share for the period. The company also reported net revenues for the period of $8.0 billion, above the $7.93 billion projected by Wall Street analysts for the quarter.

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) unveiled second-quarter net income of $0.55 per share, beating estimates for $0.48 per share for the quarter. Total revenue for the latest quarter decreased 5 percent to $21.39 billion, nearly in-line with expectations for $21.4 billion for the quarter.

Coca-Cola Company (KO) reported adjusted second-quarter net income of $1.06 per share, topping forecasts for $1.03 per share for the quarter. Net revenues for the quarter came in at $8.67 billion but fell short of the $8.70 billion analysts expected.
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) revealed second quarter 2010 net income of $1.20 per share versus $1.05 per share in the same quarter last year. The results beat analyst project ions for $1.16 per share. Revenues of $13.9 billion were 5 percent above the prior year quarter and higher than the $13.56 billion projected for the quarter. The firm also lifted its 2010 earnings guidance.

After the markets closed for trading in the previous session, Apple (AAPL) said that its third quarter profit jumped 78 percent from last year, driven by strong sales of Mac computers, iPhones and iPads. The company's quarterly earnings breezed past Wall Street expectations as did its quarterly sales.

Also after the close yesterday, internet search engine Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) said that its second-quarter profit increased 51 percent from last year, boosted by significant growth in display advertising revenue, higher margins, and lower operating expenses.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Market Outlook by NeverLossTrading: Earnings and Economic Reports July 20, 2010

Overall we face a negative market sentiment, even though the majority of the big companies came in with better earnings - mostly they did not meet the analyst estimates, but who are they to know. Key is: “we see progress in earnings and a falling market”. This is a great setup for a long play so the market starts t make a turn. For equity holders we recommend an easy defense policy and a leverage strategy so the market makes a potential turn towards the upside:

Reports in detail:

Healthcare product company Johnson & ; Johnson reported second quarter earnings of $1.23 per share, up from $1.15 per share in the same quarter last year. Analysts were expecting the company to report earnings of $1.21 per share this quarter. However, the company lowered its 2010 earnings guidance to a range of $4.65 - $4.75 per share from the earlier range of $4.80 - $4.90 per share.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group said its second quarter earnings dipped to $0.78 per share from $4.93 per share in the year-ago period, belying analysts expectations for earnings of $2.08 per share this quarter. However, excluding one-time items, Goldman's earnings per share were $2.75 for the quarter.

Yesterday, IBM and Texas Instruments reported disappointing quarterly numbers where the overall notion was negative: For us those do not look so bad:

IBM’s second quarter revenues rose merely 2% to $23.7 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $24.17 billion. The company reported second quarter earnings of $2.61 per share, up 13% year-over-year. The consensus estimates called for earnings of $2.58 per share. The company also raised its 2010 earnings guidance to at least $11.25 per share, while analysts estimate earnings of $11.27 per share.

Texas Instruments also receded in Monday’s afterhours session after it reported second quarter revenues of $3.50 billion, up 42% year-over-year but slightly off the mean analysts’ estimate of $3.52 billion. The company’s earnings per share rose notably to 62 cents from the year-ago’s 20 cents and came in line with estimates. For the third quarter, the company expects earnings of 64-74 cents per share on revenues of $3.55 billion to $ 3.85 billion. Analysts, on average, estimate earnings of 64 cents per share on revenues of $3.59 billion.

Key Economic News today: Housing Market

For us, this does not look to bad and we might be buyers of real estate related shares. We sure know that the first home buyers credit swiped the market empty. Considering that those numbers show a clear progress.

The U.S., the Commerce Department said housing starts fell 5% to an annual rate of 549,000 in June from the revised May estimate of 578,000. Economists were expecting housing starts to fall to 575,000 from the 593,000 originally reported for the previous month. At the same time, the Commerce Department said that building permits rose 2.1% to an annual rate of 586,000 in June from 574,000 in May, surprising economists who had expected building permits to edge down to 572,000.

Good Trading,

Monday, July 19, 2010

Stock Market Fundamentals for the Week of July 19, 2010

We expect a week with ups and downs based on key financial and economic reports.

Here are the key earnings reports.

Day of the Week Company To Declare Earnings Sector Dominance

Comparing those to the key economic news we predict the following:


HAL and NE will take provisions and not declare outstanding results, they will move out profit declaration and with that give the market a negative sentiment.


Technology and Healthcare will come in on the high side we expect a market move to the upside.


Financials will publish before the market: What shall we say, there is only one way: if you have free money and you already wrote off more than you needed: UP Market expected.


Here comes the kicker: Jobless claims however the statistics will be tweaked will not be beautiful. Existing home sales will still not be favorable by sales that were pushed into April to participate from the government spending program.

We expect a market move to the downside even though key companies will report good earnings but challenging revenue attained numbers.


Consumer related companies will show better earnings and a positive market outlook which should lead to an upside movement.

These are our assumptions, but surely we let the market teach us what is happening.

Good Trading!


Sunday, July 18, 2010

Who will Dominate the Stock Market Next Week: Bulls or Bears?

The week to come will be an interesting week for the stock market. We closed on the low side on Friday and got to some key support levels. The week ahead will have a great combination of two things:

- Fantastic earnings reports

- and counterproductive overall economic news.

So what will it be and up or down week?

We focus more on the upside, but sure let the market teach us.

Why do we focus on the upside: “after we hear one after the next great earnings report, somebody will step in and say: “it is not that bad.” But we act very careful this might happen when go to the downside first, scare a lot of investors out and then smart money will buy back in.

Hoping this helps.

We recommend for day traders to stay out of the market at the highlighted key news events.

To see our 5-10 years market outlook, click here:

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Trading Stocks And Other Securities With Indicators Or Without?

Lately I am hearing professional traders and trade educators stating that the best way to trade is solely rely on price action, with nothing but candle sticks or bars on the chart.

It is an interesting concept and we know that experienced traders who do this profession for 10 and 20 years for sure imagine the lines or paint them in their inner eyes, but novice and learning traders what do they do without orientation?

Key is to not look at all indicators and lines all the time.

When we take a peek at the cockpit of an airplane we see countless meters and instruments. Most of them are not needed all the time, but in case it matters, they are there. An experienced captain can just fly us from New York to Miami by following key landmarks, but he will and is required to use his instruments. When new captains start flying an airplane they better look at what the instruments are telling and this is why captains run through an intensive training, simulator flights and education to know what to do in all situations.

NeverLossTrading educates you to get a investor license for the world’s financial markets and we help our students to follow clear orientation points that are put on the chart: telling where to enter, where the stop goes and where to take profit.

In reference to using nothing but price action: When I once went to watch the Golf US Open, Tiger Woods putted with a Driver. Why? Maybe because he can, but I am not trying to put this one in my repertoire and I know that playing a round of golf with just one club will not bring me the desired results.

We have one trade, for people who just want to use one indicator and it works, but not to the same degree as other trades do – so it makes money, but leaves money on the table too.

Check the chart and assume the red line as the stop line, the green line as the orientation line and we have the one club golf course winner. As said, it works, but does not let us harvest all that is there.

How to trade this:

• Red above green line: downtrend

• Red below Green line: uptrend.

• Red Line = Stop Line

• Breakouts above or below the red or green line show you where to trade towards

• Trade in one direction till you get stopped

We call this trade the NeverLossTrading Double Decker trade. Those antique flying machine work and so does our trade and it brings traders who do not want to consider many variable to their goals.

In case you cannot see our picture click here:

There is for sure a bit more finesse to this trade, but look at the details with a 5 minute and daily chart and tell me what you are thinking.

If you want to learn the trade, we are happy to teach it to you.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

A New Earnings Season: What Will The Stock Market Do Next?

Summary: The financial market are up for turbulent times with short term growth and fall for the next 10 years. NeverLossTrading highly recommends for people to learn to be financial market investors to build themselves a secure financial future and delivers many reasons why buy and hold will not pay us.

A New Earnings Season: What Will The Stock Market Do Next.

We are coming up to a new earnings season and what will we expect?

From our perspective: good sound earnings and even higher earnings. Look at the following graph and see yourself how corporate profits dipped in the year 2008/2009,by the melt down of the subprime mortgage crisis and now are back up, higher than ever.

Let us simplify the earnings statement of corporate America into: Sales – Costs – Depreciation = Earnings and we clearly see that the fall in corporate earnings was majorly driven by Depreciations of overstated earnings made in the years 2005 to 2008. Surely in the aftermath we all felt a slowing economy which meant less sales, but America restructured and coped with the challenge and now is back to lead the world in earnings.

What happened?

Sales stayed about the same and there were no more depreciations and costs: labor. got adjusted. As a result, corporate America makes more money than ever.

America got more efficient the productivity per capita employed went up tremendously. But this also means that we might need to live with a 10% unemployment rate as it is a given for 30 years in Europe for example.

Now corporate America shifted employment to the government and the government has the issue of how to finance the major shift of employment to unemployment.

When we look at the Federal or State balance sheet we simplify into: Taxes – Costs = Available Budget. With more unemployment the factor cost increased over proportionately. So far all stimulus programs did not work to reduce unemployment and with that the cost factor and a potential restructuring of the taxation system to produce more income might be needed.

This sure will create an outcry, but read me right, I am not saying that I want higher taxes, I am saying that the budgets do not hold, because of the increase of unemployment costs and the government will come to a point where printing more money for deficit spending has to come to an end.

So what will come next? Let us take a look at Europe, most of their countries are used to deal with unemployment rates of 10-12% for the last 30 years and what programs they have in place to survive:

Government funded general healthcare is a given: rich countries care about the health of their people. To administer such Europeans regulate the earnings of healthcare providers and in average they come up as 1/3 of what America pays with little to no difference in service. This for sure is a huge political issue, but would it not be a shame if the richest country in the world people have to die if they have no insurance? Sure, I know the argument that they should find a job, but if there is no job to be found, what to do?

Another wildfire, America might need a restructuring of the taxation system to make more income to cover the government spending. in a short comparison:

- Federal Tax: About the same in Europe.

- State Tax: Europeans usually have one federal tax and allocate state taxes.

- Municipal Taxes: The do not exist and when I am looking at the North-East of the United States, a lot of money is brought in and wasted.

- Value Added Tax: Europeans charge about 12% more and fund municipalities and states from the local accrued value added tax.

What does all that mean for the financial markets?

We will have great earnings reports one day and depressing jobless claims the next and by that we assume for the next – hold on to a rail – 5 to 10 YEARS we predict ping pong financial market, with short spikes up and down till the issues above are solved. The market drivers are:

Corporate America is back, and it's more profitable than ever. You might not believe the graph above, but these are actual earnings and not planned profits. When those earnings reports come out the market will: spike up.

The Government has its biggest deficit problem ever and every time they will touch one of the instruments to solve the issue, the stock market will go berserk and fall out of the skies. For now the Fed’s only choice is to print more money to be able to make it into the next election period which will put some short term pressure on the US-Dollar, make the Euro and the stock market rise for short.

If the government makes it to the next election period: Imagine a regulated health care program which would put the second biggest sector in the S&P 500 (Health Care) under pressure in earnings – and the markets will do like Humpty Dumpty.

Another hot potato, Restructuring of taxes with higher corporate and capital gain taxes. All sectors and in particular the Financial sector will make a real slump.

Corporate America is not the world for granted and will deal splendidly with all those changes and come back to make even more earnings to allow for relief and spikes up. On the other side, the short term sentiment usually runs the financial markets into the grounds and each time another depressing unemployment report comes out, we are there again.

In the turbulent times ahead of us, we can only recommend for people who want to achieve a positive outcome for their lives, to learn to be a FINANCIAL MARKET INVESTOR which entails:

- Forget buy and hold

- Learn how to leverage and protect your assets is prepared to teach you to deal your money in up-, down- or sideways markets. Our key slogan is:

3 days to financial freedom - and we mean it.

Learn the instruments and investment methods that will keep you above water in the turbulent times ahead of us. You sure do not want to put 60% of your hard earned retirement money at risk.

Why do we tell here forget buy and hold? Isn’t the whole 401 (k) and our retirement build on it?

Yes, but it will not work anymore and here is the reason why: The S&P 500 (500 biggest companies by market capitalization) did not grow in the last 10 years and mostly will not do much in the next 10 years. Let us pick an example of one of the most recognized and well know companies out of the S&P 500: MSFT – Microsoft Corp. Had we invested since the year 2000 a monthly amount of $100 into Microsoft shares we would own 473 Shares today and their today’s value would be: $11,011 while we had invested: $12,658. This is a minus 13% return on our investment over 10 years and not the doubling of investments in 7 years that were anticipated.

We want to help people to get out of this financial trap.

For now we only teach small groups of people (up to 20 and by appointment only) so we can get our message across, even though we should talk to a filled Madison Square Garden to make obvious that it is our individual responsibility to obtain financial market knowledge that gets us into financially safe future.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Why Does The Stock Market Stop And Turn At Certain Price Levels?

It is a question of human decision and psychology: if more than one individual believes in certain price culmination points, they are there. Human decisions make price patterns and price changes. The interesting thing is that there are certain price patterns that are repetitive - over and over again. The only thing that changes is the intensity or range of the patterns.
For anybody who wants to be successful I highly recommend to learn those price patterns that are human psychology based. is teaching them excellently and very applicable for the day trader or longer term investor.

Price patterns are a key to learn and read to achieve financial market success.

As a second category it is strongly proposed to use technical indicators. Those indicators portrait the past into the future and the future can always be different. Buy they kind of work like traffic signs to guide you in the right direction to not get run over and left behind.

On our understanding: 85% of financial market are institutional investor decision based. Hence, it is good to know what type of indicators they use to evaluate the market. But there is another dimension to trading: the element of surprise – not to act along the lines of the general understanding. Look at yesterday, July 7, no market news, nothing and a 3% gain.

Where did it come from?

When looking into the details of this big move, the Swiss banks popped out as a major buyer and investor into the stock market ant the pair: AUD/JPY (a beautiful carry trade).

For how long will this trend hold?

How shall we know, but we have our market radar on and will recognize when they let the air out and I gone know what side to be on.

As a summary, we always have three choices and only by getting a proper financial market education we know which one to take:

• Go with their trend

• Go against their trend

• Just ignore them

Lately there are more and more people who precisely analyze and know what is coming next in the financial world. For us, it is good to have an opinion, but for whomever is constantly active in the financial markets will learnt that it is good to be bios, but it is better to be able to quickly change according to where the market goes. For those who want-to-be-right, it is usually very costly.

For more details:

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Please Do NOT Blame Your Broker

Summary: When a broker calls you it is just to get the job done. The firm has to place so many shares and you are just one of the fellow investors who shall give your money for a couple of buzz words and potentially a sheet of paper that says: this stock will move to the upside. When you take the offer, it turns into your responsibility – and if you make or lose money, it is in your account.

Please Do NOT Blame Your Broker

Do we not all get those calls of the, let me fraise it that way: “give it all investment.” The one that cannot fail, because everything is lined up perfect and there is even a prospectus of how that share will fly through the roof and we will be so much better on. Three weeks ago when Gold was at $1253/oz I got all those calls that told me it is going to be at $1300 soon and I can buy a real complicated option chain and will make good. Today, July 6, 2010 we are at $1195 and I should have turned their offer into shorting gold, if I had, it would have made me $5,700 per contract – not too bad.

There is a common theory that says: “the public is wrong” and when you go continuously against the trend you are much better on. Indeed, I never got so many phone calls about buying into crude oil as it was at $145 a barrel and now we are at $72/barrel and even went to a low at $33.20 after the high of $147.27. Interesting, isn’t it. Hence I want those brokers to call and immediately I know which side to take. But this is too simplistic. Using technical analysis and trusting in clear readings of price patterns is the key to success.

Tonight I read a publication from June 15, 2010 where 7 chart breaking stocks of the Brazilian market were explained and in the best case, had we done the investment on June 16, we would have lost only 10% of our capital, in average 20% and 40% at worst. That’s a real achievement in e weeks.

Learn to read the stock market and analyze on your terms where you put your money.

NeverLossTrading gives you a great education and in 3 days you can be a financial market investor, knowing what to do and what not.

Check us out at:

Email us:

Monday, July 5, 2010

Key Market Events Week of July 5, 2010

Please see the key news events for the upcoming week of July 5, 2010

Our Tip for the day trader: stay out of the markets at key events.

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Does The Stock Market Give Investors The Best Returns?

Often we get told: “in the long run, the stock market is the best way to invest your money.”

We at NeverLossTrading agree and expand our view to the world financial markets:

• Stock Markets

• Bond Markets

• Commodities

• Currencies

Key to be a world financial market investor is to know how to make money in up, down and sideways markets.

Let us take a look how the US Stock market performed over the last 10 years to check and balance against the common theory of the stock market being the best place to invest.

We like to take the S&P 500 as key indicator: “The 500 biggest US-companies by market capitalization and measure the stock market success bases on those.” Here are some key companies of the S&P 500 and the referring industry sectors.

Industry Sectors Key Companies in the S&P 500

• Information Technology: Microsoft, IBM, Apple

• Financials: JP-Morgan Chase Manhattan

• Healthcare: Johnson & Johnson

• Energy: Exxon Mobile, Chevron

• Consumer: Procter & Gamble, McDonalds

• Industrial: GE, Boeing

• Utility: Exelon

• Telecommunication: ATT, Verizon, Sprint

• Materials: Monsanto

When we look at the closing of Friday July 2, 2010, we recognize that S&P 500 closed below the opening of the year 2010. Tracing back in time, we are now at the level of the year 2001 or even 1997.

In between 1997 and today we had good and bad years in the stock market and if we continuously invested, we have about the same money after 13 years with ZERO percent interest.

Is this a great way to build a retirement portfolio, putting money into the stock market and get Zero interest - if we were lucky and chose the right shares or mutual funds?

God forbid if we owned: Worldcom, GM, Sprint, Citi Group, Freddie Mac and so many others to name.

Hence, the answer to this is: NO, the stock market is not a safe haven for guaranteed income.

Based on our analysis, 75% of all shares and Mutual Funds develop in close relationship to the S&P 500. Surely some do better and others do worth, but 75% is good enough to say that the S&P 500 are the key instrument to measure market and investment success.

Why do we not take the DOW, which is what everybody on an everyday basis refers to as the stock market index. The DOW in its composition has 30 companies, one per industry sector. All Dow companies are included in the S&P 500. The Dow always sees changes in the structure and composition of the companies involved (GE is the only company which stayed in the Dow for the last 50 years, all others were changed out) and basically the DOW and the S&P move in the same increments, just on a different basis.

So what to do when we see that the stock markets are not giving us enough return to build up our retirement account as we planned?

First of all: Forget the traditional way of buy and hold: buy a stock today, choose a quality company and sell it later at a higher price. This it does not work anymore. Look at GE, a real quality company and it was clear that it the share price will go up when it was at $40, $35, $25, $15, $10 and now we are again at $14 and did even see $7 once.

Second: Learn how to leverage and protect your investments with methods that involve options and futures, so you are able to earn money if the markets go up, down or sideways.

Sounds unreal?

Let us jointly check it out:

Had we invested since the year 2000 a monthly amount of $100 into Microsoft shares ( a real quality company) we would own 473 Shares today and their today’s value would be: $11,011 while we had invested: $12,658. This is a minus 13% return on our investment over 10 years.

The same or even worth if you continuously invested in: Bank of America, DELL, Alcoa, Pfizer , Motorola, GE (all blue chip companies). When you own mutual funds, take a look at your statement and you most likely owned or own those companies.

Never Loss Trading offers you to learn in 3 days how to be a financial market investor. Depending on the frequency you want and can trade, you should strive to earn:

• 2-5% a month

• 2-5% a week

• 2-5% a day

Regardless in which direction the markets trade.

Check out the details at: to find classes for 401(k) holders, Market Investors, Forex Traders, Futures, Index, Commodities, Options and many more.

The future is in your hands, take the first step and learn to be a financial market investor.

If you do not care about your own money, nobody else will.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

How the small investor can beat Berkshire Hathaway Funds

In a recent publication of Reuters the following was said:

“Exclusive - Berkshire is best-regarded U.S. company (By Scott Malone Mon Apr 5, 2010)

BOSTON (Reuters) - Everybody loves Warren Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) -- the investment vehicle run by Buffett, the so-called sage of Omaha -- topped a list of the best-regarded U.S. companies, although the public has a dim view of corporate America overall after a brutal economic downturn.”

We highly respect and acknowledge what Mr. Buffet built and achieved with Berkshire Hathaway Inc. He is a man of his word, a leader and stock market promoter for the public. His words and actions help to bring confidence and positive outlook to the American people and the worldwide public. We want to take the opportunity to thank him for that.

Looking at the development of the Berkshire: BRK/A-Fund, it has a huge price: approx $120,000/share. By today there are no options available for the fund. Berkshire sure knows about their weakness and plans to make changes in this respect. But they are not there yet.

NeverLossTradig concentrates on shares and funds that offer options, have a minimal bid and ask spread (best a penny), dollar strike prices and also penny spreads on options. We sure hope Berkshire will establish their restructured fund in this manner and we are happy to trade it, but not today. Our pick comparable the BRK/A would cost about $120 a share. With a recommended minimum of 100 shares, to be able to protect and leverage with options, we talk about a personal investments in increments of $1,200 instead of $120,000.

Making constant income and being able to protect assets is one of our investment programs we teach and practice with our students and members. Our goal is to make a monthly income of about 2-5% above the average market progression, being able to protect against market downturns and do this repetitively on a month by month basis with weekly reviews.

There is not too much effort you need to bring to control your financial destiny. Let us compare the development with Berkshire and the S&P 500 over time and decide ourselves what we want to do with our financial future.

Since 2008 the S&P 500 and Berkshire basically go hand in hand. At times the BRK.A advances, or the S&P 500 and then they catch up again.

For people who like diversification, we teach how to trade exchange traded funds of the S&P 500 and if we only produce a 2% monthly income above and beyond the market progression we are way ahead in our returns compared to a Fund like Berkshire.

The big advantage of the small investor is specialized knowledge in some sectors and speed of decision: we are in and out of a security in split seconds. This applied an educated market investor will advance the best fund managers by speed and control.

Imagine we had invested $150,000 two years ago into one share of the A-Fund of Berkshire, the share would be worth $121,000 today. Applying the NeverLossTrading concept with the same investment, preventing the down turn and making a constant income of 2% a month our account would show: $241,265.6. In other classes we teach how to greatly benefit from downturns with monthly income way above the 2% mark.

The advantage of the small investor is speed. We do not have to comply to SEC regulations. When we spot what is going on in the market it takes us seconds to react. While a huge fund holder has to slowly sell in and out of positions.

Take your future into your own hands, learn how to make money as a self investor. We are here for you: