Spot and Trade Institutional Money Moves

Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction for:

Day Traders, Swing Traders, Long-Term Investors

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Is The Stock Market Manipulated?

The following article about stock market manipulation just came to me:
and it put a smile on my face.

Do we have another Joe the plumber in:
"A large part of trading has to do with trust, and I don't have it," says Mark Swenson, a 43-year-old plumber from New Hampshire who refuses to buy individual stocks” (from the above article).
Are we serious? In every market, those who can try to take control of it.
Go and sell “Plumber Cola” against Pepsi and Coke and see where you gone end up getting. Make
adhesive tape and stick it to Scotch. Put a better diaper out and beat Proctorand Kimberly.
Do we really assume in financial markets, because of the security exchange commission (SEC) and TV, we have the same access to information like a Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan?
Yeah right. They employ 105 (and this might be a low number pulled from the sky) well educated MBA’s making market analysis for them and we feel we can get all of that through “Stock TV Entertainment” of an email newsletter we subscribe to?
Institutional Investors dominate 85% of the financial markets and they are out to succeed and care less from whom they take the money they make.
Institutional investors have a big advantage in knowledge and we will never be able to get anywhere close. So how can we compete and prevent that they  take our money?
The answer is:   Don’t fight them go with them.
Spot the action of institutional investors that can be made transparent on a stock chart and instead of fighting their action, we follow. By doing so we move in the right direction and even have an advantage that matters: speed. The private investor can get in and out of a position quick
while institutions have to scale in and out – and by their scaling we spot their action and react the same, but faster.
At the end of the day, who cares that institutions dominate the market, we can grab their tail and make fantastic market runs people mostly cannot even think off.
When you understand how to be a successful financial market investor, profits will come big time. Financial markets allow a 1:100 or 1:50 leverage without even asking a bank for a credit. With that 10,000 dollars invested can act as one million – and when the million goes up 5% you make $50,000
on a $10,000 investment. But you need to know how. NeverLossTrading is a primer institution to educate you in how to follow the footsteps of the giants in the financial market to copy and leverage their action.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

NeverLossTrading - Financial Market Evaluation: Stocks, Bonds, Futures, Currencies, Commodities

The rising US-Dollar is not based on internal strength but on Irelands banking problem in the Euro zone. What will come next?

1. Currencies

Today, November 16, 2010, the key market influencer was the US-Dollar. So why did we see the Dollar rising. Not because of internal strength, but because of financial trouble in the Euro zone. After Greece getting bailed out it looks now that Irelands Banking system need the support of Brussels, which increases the overall amount of Euro floating and by that the Dollar in relation increases.

If we look at the dollar value it is composed of:

Euro 57.6%

JPY 13.5%

GBP 11.9%

CAD 9.1%

S-Krona 4.2%

CHF 3.2%

Others 0.5%

So when the Euro Drops, the US-Dollar Rises

2. US Economic Indicators

Basically positive, even so on a small scale, but the rising dollar made the market tumble today:

The National Association of Home Builders said its homebuilder confidence index rose to 16 in November from a downwardly revised 15 in October. Economists had been expecting the index to edge down to 15 from the reading of 16 originally reported for the previous month.

The Labor Department said its producer price index rose by 0.4 percent in October, matching the increases seen in each of the two previous months. Economists had been expecting the index to increase by a more significant 0.8 percent.

Excluding a jump in energy prices as well as a modest drop in foods prices, the core producer price index fell by 0.6 percent in October after edging up by 0.1 percent in September. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected core prices to increase by 0.1 percent.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said that industrial production was unchanged in October after falling by 0.2 percent in September. Economists had been expecting production to increase by 0.3 percent.

3. Stock Market

Wal-Mart (WMT) reported third-quarter net income of $0.95 per share, topping estimates for earnings of $0.90 per share. Sales came in at $101.2 billion, short of consensus estimates for $102.43 billion for the quarter.Wal-Mart also forecast fourth quarter earnings of $1.29 to $.133 per share, above the $1.28 per share mark forecast on Wall Street.

Home improvement retailer and Dow component Home Depot Inc. (HD) posted third-quarter earnings of $0.51 per share, just above the $0.48 per share estimates for the period. Quarterly sales totaled $16.6 billion, above the $16.59 billion expected for the quarter.

4. Bonds and Notes

The big sell off on Bonds and Notes continues and might have found a potential bottom today. Interesting how the market exited bonds so rapidly even so a big demand will be generated by the Fed, buying back $600 billion in Bonds.

5. Commodities

On the front of commodities, the rising US Dollar did his dues and we are showing landslides to the downside: Gold, Crude Oil, Wheat, Sugar whatever you touch is on run down.

6. Conclusion

All securities cannot run into one direction, one side has to give: Bonds or Socks, Stocks or Commodities. The dollar strength is theoretical and might find a top at 80 Cents (/DX Dollar Index).

Under any circumstances it is a good time for day trading and even so the overall direction is down, there might be a good opportunity for a short term rise of Stocks and Commodities with a sell at the Thanksgiving Week.

Good Trading !

Monday, November 15, 2010

Government Spending Drove the Recent Stock Market Growth

Government Spending Drove the Recent Stock Market Growth

Looking at the last 3 stock market uptrend’s we see the following:

A) 1996 – 2000: The time of the .COM Boom. All known and explained

B) 2003 – 2007 The time of world economic growth boosted mainly by Asia/Chinas development

C) 2008 – today Markets are driven by massive government/deficit spending allowing for:

• Solid corporate earnings

• High unemployment

What is going to come next?

Let us first describe some key market facts:

The $600 billion of government money will flow into the market over the next 6 month. The stock market already advanced this action and so there will maybe be another little move to the upside, but not a massive one.

The technology companies who were the driver of the stock market growth: AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, AMZN are partially getting under pressure where to find new market places for their offering:

- How many more iPhones can you sell. So where is the next wave for Apple Computer.

- How many move videos can you consume while you have the internet, Xbox and movie on demand by the cable and satellite company. So why should Netflix grow?

- Google is getting under pressure by Facebook targeting the massive advertisement incomes Google made and with that one of the most overweight internet champions is having an interesting time ahead of them.

By having free money and being able to sell bad mortgages back to the government, Banks are comfortable in not lending. They enjoy a high margins with the loans they get serviced. Mature markets like Banking usually have a tendency for consolidation and with that big banks will not grow through business expansion, but acquisitions of local and regional banks. By banks not lending, growth through consumer and corporate deficit spending is limited.

Now we draw our conclusion:

We will enter a time of a sideways trend with high volatility, ending potentially in a bigger market revision, by all current growth being achieved through government spending that is not backed by the economy.

When we look at the VIX (Volatility Index)

We see a typical triangular pattern, which indicated a potential breakout in the first quarter of 2011.

As we know the VIX is inverse to the stock market and the breakout could be twofold:

- To the upside, with a downside revision of the stock market.

- To the downside, entering a sideways or growth market.

Looking at the trend over the last 60 months we would rather lean to a downside revision of the stock market with a rising VIX after the first quarter of 2011.

Hence we recommend to learn how to implement bearish and sideways market strategies to not get eaten up in the times ahead of us. as a premier institution for investor education has a fantastic program to prepare you not to lose but benefit in all market directions: up, down, sideways.

Good Trading,

Thursday, November 11, 2010

New Forex Regulations – Who takes the lead for Currencies: Futures or Spot?

With the new regulations for Forex that came into place the landscape for margin requirements changed (see our article: .
We made a first calculation comparing key features of the one towards the other investment vehicle.

See it yourself in the following table. There are various pros and cons, but they are pretty tight to each other now:

Some of the key pros and cons are:

EUR/USD Spot has the advantage of offering mini and micro accounts allowing the novice investors a playground where they can risk less money to test the markets. By offering more variability the spot market allows for better fine tuning on dollar investments.

Currency futures are regulated, there is always a trader on the other side of the contract. In the spot market, the market price is a theoretical calculation and your broker takes the other side of the trade, which is a scary thought for many investors.

All in all, spot and futures go hand in hand in their daily moves, while the spot market shows more spikes which can be an advantage or disadvantage.

Good Trading!

Friday, November 5, 2010

Deficit Spending Boosts the Stock Market

An interesting week got closed today November 5, 2010. After the FOMC meeting it got confirmed what we announce prior: The Fed is going to purchase $600 Billion of US-Securities through the second quarter of 2011. In addition it was announced that the Fed is planning to purchase $250 – 300 Billion in mortgages.

What does this mean:

An additional demand for securities enters the market and changes it. Money gets taken out of Bonds and Notes and needs to find a place to go and the stock market with high earnings of key players seems to be attractive for now.

Additional deficit spending and increase in the amount of dollars floating will sure keep the downward pressure for the dollar going. With a weakening, dollar commodities will see a nice surge and Gold at $1540/oz. is very thinkable.

The unfortunate part of this government sponsored stock market rally is, that it is not backed by any economy and with that might find its weak spots when the government bodies finished their buyback and bank relieve program.

At times we meet people complaining that the government should not get so much involved, and we always answer: take advantage of it with the right knowledge and care about what you have influence over, learn to trade the markets:

With the amount of money the Fed will spend, bad employment reports as we had them this week do not even affect on the market, but the problem is not going away and in the future we have to face that the US maneuvered into a long term 10% unemployment rate with no real preparation. The money used to buy back mortgages silly bankers granted prior will not help to put relieve to the huge unemployment challenge the US faces and when it gets obvious the markets might get ready for a bigger adjustment.

Looking across the pond we hear reports of filled order books in Germany and a reduction in unemployment. It looks like Europe is digesting their PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) while the us might be facing the PACAIL (PA,CA,IL) issue soon – by the way, PA is very comparable in its economy and population to Greece, not to talk about California.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Economy and Elections – What will happen to the Stock Market?

November 1, 2010 Let us take a moment and an outlook to what we see and what we expect:

Today’s News

  • Increased Chinese triggered by expansion of infrastructure projects: government spending or deficit spending.
  • The ISM Report (Institute for Supply Management) is showing that economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded at an accelerated rate in the month of October to 56.9 in October from 54.4 in September. A growth that is in the range of any standard deviation and with that not much progress.
  • The Commerce Department reported that construction spending increased by 0.5 percent in September following a revised 0.2 percent decrease in August. Based on deficit spending.
  • The report also revealed that personal spending increased by 0.2 percent in September after rising by a revised 0.5 percent in the previous month. September's increase was short of expectations for a 0.4 percent increase.
Our Validity Check

At times with where little increases in the range of a calculation default lead to enthusiasm, we are looking at an index that tells us a comparison of bulk good shipped and booked, which usually gives an indication of what is coming in the next 3 months.


Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.

What do we see?

We are sloping down, which is not speaking for a great economic outlook.

As a result, be the elections how they are, the economy is still fragile and we are getting prepared for a market retracement in the near future and get ready for it:

How do we get ready:

Short term we are bullish:

Long Term we are:

- Not holding long term engagements in Equities

- Trading the Futures markets with defined stops

- Applying option income strategies above the highs of the indexes

- Trading currencies that will go with or against the stock market trend

You learn all this at:

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Financial Market Investments: Stocks, Bonds, Options, Futures, Forex

Why do people invest: to make a return - some to spare time, but we consider that pleasure.
The best investment opportunities, aren’t they where you know you can recoup your investment at ease, by a legal system in place that protects you, a market that allows you to exit and investment without losing it all. We can never control the outcome of an investment, but can make certain what will happen in the event of an emergency exit.

The best investments are where you know what you are doing, then returns can be achieved through know how.

Another aspect to share: “the best investments are where you do not need a lot of people to make them happen and still reap the benefits.”

Financial markets are a wonderful investment opportunity, if you understand the rules and regulation and the dynamics of how they work.


- You need no clients, no collection, no organization, no technology… and still you can make fantastic returns.

- You can leverage your investment up to 1:100 without asking a bank for financing.

- You can be a real estate investor and never build a house, a car maker without any factories, a school faculty without students….

You can decide to be something different every day without justification and explanation to anybody.

Financial market investments allow you to make decisions from the comfort of your home without convincing bosses or supervisory boards. NO more pleasing others and listen to their stories you never cared about – it is you to decide and live as an independent financial market investor.

Come on board, learn NeverLossTrading and invest in 3 days to your financial freedom. ,

Monday, October 18, 2010

Stock Market: What Do Bank Earnings Tell Us?

Banks are the perfect place to show book money:

When the banks built accruals for potential bad loans – earnings went down;

and now Banks release over-accruals – and earnings go up.

This is basically what we saw in Citigroup today.

Banks show their real attainment in the development in the revenue numbers and this is where Citigroup came short (see our article:

JPM (JP Morgan-Chase-Manhattan) already announced on October 13, 2010 lower revenue numbers, but better earnings. Why is that? All banks are very restrictive in lending money, they enjoy a beautiful margin by the low fed rates and with that do not need to find new business to show profits: profits come from book money: margins, reserves.

With a restrictive – but for the banks comfortable – lending policy, we will not see bigger growth for the economy in the near term future and with that no release on employment numbers.

Based on the sound profits from all corporations in the 3rd quarter earnings release, we have the following investment policy:

- Short term we go with the market and trade towards the upside and we are looking to buy into a market retracement we are waiting for.

- Midterm we get ready for getting short in Banks and our candidate to pick is JPM (we collected a lot of material that indicates a 4th quarter write off from the trading side of JPM).

Good trading.

Stocks Market: Solid Earnings and Home Builder Confidence Increase

Today, Monday October 18, 2010, the National Association of Home Builders said that its home builder confidence index moved up to 16 in October after last month's reading of 13. The upward move also defied forecasts for the index to remain at 13. The increase came as market conditions, sales projections and consumer prospects all showed gains.
Further, the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production unexpectedly declined in September. The headline number showed a drop-off of 0.2 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick recorded in August. The fall surprised economists who had forecast an increase of 0.2 percent, while the figure also marked the first fall in production after six months of increases. The report also showed that capacity utilization inched down to 74.7 percent in September from 74.8 percent in August. Initial forecasts looked for the figure to remain flat at 74.8 percent.

We continue a slow grinding economic development with high unemployment rates and solid corporate earnings. Just compare to our last quarter report:

Overall the market continues positive based on strong earnings reports:

In earnings news, Citigroup Inc. released third quarter results showing net income of $0.07 per share compared to a loss last year, while edging out estimates for $0.06 per share for the quarter. The firm was able to turn a profit following a significant reduction in provisions for credit losses. Revenues for the quarter came in at $20.74 billion, short of revenue estimates of $21.15 billion for the quarter.

Halliburton Company reported third-quarter net income of $0.60 per share, above EPS estimates for $0.55 for the quarter. Total revenues were $4.67 billion, also beating expectations which called for $4.63 billion for the period.

Hasbro Inc. posted third-quarter net earnings of $1.09 per share, topping projections for $1.04 per share for the quarter. Net revenues rose 3 percent to $1.31 billion, also coming in above estimates which called for $1.29 billion in revenues for the quarter.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

New Forex Regulations

The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Futures Association (NFA), which determine leverage (and the resulting margin) requirements for Futures and Forex trading, have established new Forex leverage and maintenance requirements.
  • The new requirements, which will take effect Sunday October 17, 2010, at 5 p.m. EDT (4 p.m. CDT), will impact all currently open Forex positions, as well as any new Forex positions to be opened on or after October 17.
  • The maximum leverage requirements on all major currency pairs will be revised due to the rule revisions:
  • Major currency pairs will change from 100:1 to 50:1 maximum leverage (from 1% to 2%). Exotic or minor pairs will change from 25:1 to 20:1 maximum leverage (from 4% to 5%).
  • Major pairs consist of any pair with two of the following currencies: Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Danish Krone (DKK), Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Norwegian Krone (NOK), Swedish Krona (SEK), Swiss Franc (CHF), or US Dollar (USD). All other pairs are considered by the NFA to be exotic and are subject to the higher margin requirement.
Please check day trading requirements and overnight requirements with your Broker.

You will also need to maintain a 100% equity-to-margin ratio (risk level) at all times.

Liquidation of positions will occur once daily, at 5 a.m. EDT (4 a.m. CDT), if the risk level in your account falls to less than 100%, and intraday if the equity-to-margin ratio in your account falls to 25% or below, whichever comes first.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Economic Growth with High Unemployment

Bad employment numbers do no more shake the markets.

Wednesday October 6, 2010, before the start of trading, private payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) said that private sector employment fell by 39,000 jobs in September following a revised increase of 10,000 jobs in August.

The decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected employment to increase by about 18,000 jobs compared to the loss of 10,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

With the upward revision to the data for the previous month, the drop in jobs reported for September marks the first decrease in private sector employment reported by ADP since January.

However, ADP noted that the average monthly gain in employment over the seven previous months was a relatively modest 34,000, adding,

Juggling small numbers left and right: "There simply is no momentum in employment."
Corporate profits are still rising, while the job situation does not better. All government programs to sponsor employment failed and with the wave of mergers and acquisitions ahead of us, a significant change is not yet seen.

Key Consumer Goods Companies Announcements:

The discount wholesaler Costco (COST) said its fourth quarter net income rose to 97 cents per share on an 8 percent increase in net sales to $23.59 billion. Analysts estimated earnings of 95 cents per share on revenues of $24.22 billion.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announced that it has reached an agreement to buy all outstanding shares of Crucell (CRXL) it does not already own for about 1.75 billion Euros in an all-cash offer. Johnson & Johnson currently owns 17.9 percent of Crucell's outstanding shares.

By the artificial amount of money coming to the market as a result of government interference (see our article: bad unemployment numbers do no more shake the market on its way up.

Take Advantage of Stocks, Bonds, Commodities Going Up by Government Action

“When governments interfere with the markets, let us not complain, but take advantage of the situation as educated financial market investors.”
A strange phenomena is happening in the financial markets:

- Stock Market Indexes: up

- Bonds and Notes: up

- Gold: up

- Crude Oil: up

This is a situation that only occurs when artificial demand comes into a market, increases the amount of money floating and it has to go somewhere. What happened?

The US central bank also finally unveiled a new asset purchase program to buy up government bonds and boost liquidity in the deflation-wracked economy. We talked about this in our prior publications, but now it gets official. The fed is the new force entering the markets and by that we see a beautiful increase in prices for all sectors. How long will it hold? Until one of the today´s buyers becomes a major seller and this can be anywhere between December and February, when new economic outlooks will hit the market. Meanwhile we will not see a great economic rise, but solid profits of US corporations and a world market that gets nervous.

By the action of the US central bank in particular Japan comes under pressure and has close to no instruments to counter the US offence in printing money and by that weakening the Dollar. As a reaction, the Bank of Japan cut its benchmark interest rate to almost zero as it seeks to revive a faltering recovery. Under pressure from the government, the BOJ cut rates to 0.0-0.1 percent from 0.1 percent. Now the Japanese copy the US action and they pump 5 trillion yen, or $60 billion into a market with no demand for money by (what a genius idea) the central bank of Japan to purchase government bonds, treasury bills and corporate bonds in an effort to weaken the local currency and improve liquidity in the world's third largest economy. But what is that gone give, if nobody wants to borrow money in Japan. It will just pull the Yen into carry trades against currencies with higher interest rates, like the AUD (Australian Dollar) and the Yen will make its march: up and the Japanese Exports will suffer.

To spell out the carry trade for you: Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced to hold interest rate at 4.50 percent. Experts had even expected Australia to increase rates by 25-basis points.

So now if you sell Yen for 0.1 interest and with the money your receive, you buy Australian Dollars at 4.5% interest, what is that gone give: +4.4% interest. But surely be careful, with a carry trade, there are two objectives. The first is obviously to make money on the interest rate differential. The second objective is to gain a profit from the capital appreciation.

Let us give an example: if an investor just puts $1,000 into an investment with a carry trade difference of 4.4%. The leverage in Forex of 1:100 let’s the investor control $100,000. Now we calculate the interest income on $100,000 x 4.4% p.a.=$4,400. On the basis of the margin put in the carry trade Forex pair: $1,000 this is a 440% p.a. return, if the value of the pair stays the same. If the pair even increases in value the investor will receive additional gains.

Sounds unbelievable? Yes, sure, but let us enlighten you of how it works:

The investor buys Australian Dollars and receives a 4.5% interest and pays with Japanese Yen at 0.1% interest. Sounds complicated? But in action it is very easy:


The danger in this pair is that the value of the Yen might increase after the money pumping action of the Bank of Japan will water out. So make your money short term and know where you put your stops to the transaction. On the other hand, the AUD might also increase and stabilize the pair longer term. The AUD’s value is very much tied to natural resources. With a weakening dollar – the biggest currency in the world, the price for natural resources is going to increase and by that the Australian Dollar has a good upside potential that might balance the pair long term.

We hope you get an understanding how NeverLossTrading can help you to be an educated financial market investor who can take advantage of key market action like the current government craziness of increasing the amount of money floating.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Stock Markets in October 2010

“Positive Outlook for the stock- and financial markets”

Our Trend Indicators for the week of October 4, 2010 point up. Key news events this week will be based on reports about the employment situation. We should not expect wonders in the change of unemployment but: - no bad news will be considered good news- and sponsor the markets to trade toward the upside. Meanwhile institutional investors accepted that high unemployment is going jointly with high corporate earnings to come out soon. If we take the old method of P/E(Share Price/Earnings), and recognize that many quality shares are available around a P/E of 10-12 and with that offer perfect opportunities.

When what you say does not tell you much you should get an education of how to trade the financial markets: “3 days to financial freedom.”

Please check on the key events and if you are day trading, stay out of the markets at the highlighted times.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Stock Market Growth Despite of Weak Consumer Confidence

The economy is more solid and progressing than the media is telling us.

Tuesday September 28, 2010.

This morning, the consumer confidence index was reported at 48.5 in September from a downwardly revised 53.2 in August. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 53.0 from the 53.5 originally reported for the previous month. But over the course of the day the markets quickly recovered and finished positive. Why is that?

Consumer confidence is no more an issue the economy take serious. Corporations make solid earnings while unemployment is in the mind of the consumer, even so they have a job. The cash that is generated by US corporations is used for M&A activities that happen either outside the United States or lead to consolidation, where more jobs get eliminated than produced. (Please see our market report form yesterday). If you check out prior reports we often stated that Europe is already used to a good economy that is not producing jobs since 30 years.

Before the start of trading, Standard & Poor's released a separate report showing that its S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in July compared to a 4.2 percent increase in June. The index had been expected to increase at an annual rate of about 3.3 percent. Meanwhile, S&P said that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 0.6 percent on a monthly basis in July, reflecting month-over-month increases in twelve out of the twenty metropolitan areas. Surely we know that the real estate market is by far not anywhere where it was, but it is up to last year and we are progressing. The media sure tell you different, but if you like just check companies performance of key builders like HOV, PHM or building machine producers CAT and you might see the difference to what the media is telling you.

To fuel the idea of solid corporate earnings: Walgreen (WAG), posted a strong gain after reporting fourth quarter earnings of $0.49 per share on revenues of $16.9 billion. Analysts had expected the company to earn $0.44 per share on revenues of $16.84 billion.

Skeptical people always come up with bad news like: did you see Research in Motion (RIMM) who are currently down by 3.6 Percent. We answer yes, but did you see the AAPL share progressing by 50% with the launch of iPhones and the iPad. In respect to that, a 3.6% revenue drop of a key competitor is nothing and RIMM even has a copy of the iPad to be launched, which will help to develop the small tablet PC market to the next stage.

A weaker Dollar and a potential buy back of bonds by the Fed will lead to a higher amount of floating dollars which we assume that we continue to see rising stock markets, commodities and bonds/notes.

Why do bonds and notes increase in value, do they not usually go down when the stock markets go up? Usually they do, but not in a case where there is an artificial demand by the Fed which will keep prices higher for a while.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Is the Economy Good or Bad

Based on corporate earnings we report that the economy is better than the news tell us.
Corporate profits are high and we are coming into the next season of sustainable high profits that will rain down on the market. When we go back to a P/E ratio evaluation, many companies are relatively cheap and in that case easy to acquire. This is what triggers M&A activities of key companies in the world. The most recent news are:

Wal-Mart (WMT) revealed a bid to acquire South African Massmart Holdings Ltd. for roughly $4.25 billion or $21.13 per share. Massmart is a leading African retailer of general merchandise, home improvement equipment and supplies.

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) also announced that it entered an agreement to acquire AirTran Holdings Inc. (AAI) for approximately $1.4 billion, including debt.

Unilever PLC (UL) announced a definitive deal to acquire U.S.-based Alberto-Culver Co. (ACV) for $3.7 billion in cash. Unilever expects the acquisition to be accretive to earnings in the first full year, excluding restructuring costs.

Some more good earnings reports:

Cal-Maine Foods Inc.'s (CALM) reported first-quarter net income of $4.76 million or $0.20 per share compared with a loss of $3.83 million or $0.16 per share in the same period last year. On average, analysts expected loss per share of $0.07 for the quarter. Net sales for the quarter came in at $190.4 million, just above expectations for $190.08 million.

Hence, the economy is not bad but does not produce the jobs expected. Many of the key US companies report profits ahead of many of the prior 5 years but were not able to top their best year ever when the economy was labeled: good.

So what do we expect for the market: Nervous continued rallies up with downslides at jobless claim reports. Let us watch out for Thursday this week: 8:30 a.m. – and we recommend not to be to heavy in the market at that day.

Stock and Financial Market News Events for the Week of Sept. 27, 2010

This week we will test if key economic data backup the recent market rally:

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Stock Market: Are We Breaking To The Upside?

There are not many days to experience the stock market going up, together with Bonds and Notes – and on top of it: Gold makes a new all time high.

What triggered this event?

Yesterday, rumors swirled that the Federal Reserve is considering buying as much as $1 trillion in U.S. bonds to support the economy.

That’s an over dimensional sum of money and such a purchase would have drastic effects on the economy and the overall markets. By making paper holders cash holders, this measure would bring a huge amount of money in the market that afterwards has to get invested somewhere. So where is it gone go and what will happen, let us use easy supply and demand rules:

• the stock market will surge by more money floating that will be put to work,

• the dollar will get weaker, because we have more dollars floating,

• commodities will rise because the dollar is getting weak and we purchase those in USD.

In the last two days, we had a hug increase in Volume of Stock market Indexes and their referring puts and calls, while more calls got issued. Overnight, the bank of Japan intervened to stop the continues rising of the Yen, which makes their exports less attractive. But why does the Yen rise? Because the dollar is on a fall.

Everybody who was waiting for the stock markets t the fall of the cliff better changes position now. From our perspective we will see rising indexes first.

If you are shaking your head in disagreement after reading the last sentence, you are probably someone who believes we are going to see a double dip in the stock market. Your prediction could be right in the long run, but there is no way in the short term such a large bond purchase wouldn’t have these 3 results. The Fed would do this to stimulate the economy and there is no way a trillion dollars wouldn’t succeed, at least temporarily.

Just take a look at what yesterday’s, September 14, 2010 rumors did :

• The dollar traded to lows not seen against the Japanese yen since 1995

• The dollar dropped to parity with the Swiss Franc

• The dollar dropped 1% against the Euro

• Gold hit an all time high of $1,276.50

• Bonds went up in anticipation of a move.

• Japan intervened on the Yen.

Good trading !

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Stock Markets: News Events for the Week of September 13, 2010

The week to come will be a key week to determine if the stock markets can stay on their current uptrend or get challenged for a potential retracement.

So far we have not seen a big money flow into stocks and by that the reached levels of the market indexes seem to be a bit fragile. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday prior to market opening we will see if the current direction gets confirmed or reverted.

Our suggestion, stay out of the market at the red highlighted times.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Weekly Options Explained

Just recently, weekly options got introduced and we received multiple questions from our students and members. Let us give you a brief explanation.

• They offer a short term trading opportunity with less premium to pay.

• Weekly options are only available for selected securities (we list them for you).

• Weekly options are issued on a Thursday and expire the following Friday.

• They are not yet as liquid as Monthly options.

• In the week of Options Expiration, no weekly options will be posted.

• For option traders they offer additional opportunities for calendar spreads.

Here is the current list of weekly options available:

Not all of the listed Options fulfill the NeverLossTrading criteria’s.

News Events for the Week of September 6, 2010

Last week we saw the following picture:
  • Strong finish of the stock markets,
  • Strong finish of key commodities
  • Retracement in Bonds and Notes.
This week, Wednesday and Thursday will be the focal days to validate last week’s positive interpretaions of the overall economy.


Monday, August 30, 2010

Stock Market News for the Week of August 30, 2010

We are starting the week strong, but let us be careful on the upcoming employment numbers:

Friday, August 27, 2010

Stock Market: What Do We Know About The Economy

Stock Market: What Do We Know About The Economy

“Is there a hidden agenda to the economy. Why did the stock market go up drastically on bad economic news?”

What Happened Today: Friday August 27, 2010?

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department reported that GDP growth in the second quarter was downwardly revised to 1.6 percent from the advance estimate of 2.4 percent.

The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the Fed would mull over the purchase of additional securities should economic conditions worsen amid the slowing recovery. Despite indicating consideration of these easing measures, the Fed chief stopped short of promising any action at the current time.

Bernanke also stated that the recovery has slowed to a slower than expected pace, calling the economic outlook "inherently uncertain" and further stressing that the fragile economy "remains vulnerable to unexpected developments."

Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan said that their consumer sentiment index for August was downwardly revised to 68.9 from the previous estimate of 69.6, although it remains above the July reading of 67.8.The downward revision came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to be revised up to a reading of 70.0.

What happened to the stock market?

Key institutional Investors ran the markets up this morning to pull the carpet right after and when it was low enough, they bought it. A 10% higher volume than average cannot be initiated by private investors.

The question is why are those institutions buying into this mess?

Or is there something we do not know?

We know everything, but we might not be aware: America booked the highest profits in 5 years – corporations are healthy . Sure growth is slow, but moderate in a worldwide comparison. The key problem America faces is high unemployment and it does not change – and surely influences consumer confidence. See one of our articles: or

Why do we face a continues high unemployment when corporate profits are hight?

America got more efficient the productivity per capita employed went up tremendously. But this also means that we might need to live with a 10% unemployment rate as it is a given for 30 years in Europe for example.

Corporate America shifted employment to the government and the government has the issue to finance the major shift of employment to unemployment.

So worldwide the US is still ahead and this makes institutions to put the money in the market.

The problem for the average market investor. This up move might be short term and next week institutions might take it out again. They do not act against private investors, they act in their interest. We highly recommend investors to learn how to deal with short term investments to the up and downside of the market. If you know how to invest, every day in the market is a beautiful day as long as it move. If it stops to move? There are beautiful strategies to make money on those days too.

NeverLossTrading is a primary institution to educate people in becoming a financial market investor. Check them out:

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Stock Market News for the Week of August 23, 2010

After last week all Stock Indexes are back into negative territory. Solid Corporate earnings and a continued high unemployment rate? What is our outlook. Corporate cash migrates towards acquisitions, that sure does not add jobs:

• Dell announced it is buying data-storage company 3PAR. Intel made public its plan to purchase Texas Instrument’s line of cable modem products. BHP’s bid for Potash Corp. Intel is looking to absorb McAfee

• Germany booked 27% higher durable goods orders which will end up in job replacing machines entering the country in the next 12 months.

Hence we will continue a zigzag curve with solid earnings and high unemployment rates.

This week all eyes are going to be focused on Friday with the new GDP numbers at 8:30 a.m. and Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 a.m.

Here are the key news events to consider this week:

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Stock Market: Where to Next?

We are riding the wave down, ready for a reversal – and love to buy cheap.

We had another day of weak employment data and the experts where surprised. At some points we are asking ourselves who the experts are? When you follow our publications: you can read that we expect since a while a stronger underlying economy with solid earning and a continued high unemployment number. The US is a mature economy and will not add proportionate jobs to the economic progress. All European countries deal with this issue since 30 years.

As a result: we will show growth by good earning and retracement by bad unemployment numbers for the near term future – and this is nobody’s fault it is an evolutionary process of a mature economy.

So now comes the question: what happens with all those earnings?

The CEO’s of America know they are requested to do something and what do they do?

1. The high profit carrying companies will go out and acquire companies and grow their base using cheap credits available to them. In the acquisition they will reduce redundancy and people will lose their jobs.

2. Others will invest in new machinery and equipment that will make even more people in manufacturing jobs redundant. German upped their economic outlook based on higher than expected orders for machines and machine tools. Who do you think placed those orders?

Usually the heard is wrong. Currently everybody knows the stock market will go down – so after the correction of today they look right and w might see another sell off on option Friday (tomorrow). But this will not mean we fall back to an S&P value of 700. As a result, our strategy is to day trade only for now, waiting for the right moment to place a swing trading options position on one of the major indexes.

Options are often considered a risky investment, but with the right trading plan they make us more money on the way up and produce less losses on the way down. When we say such, we are often ask: But how do you deal with the overnight risk?

Our Answer: Overnight Hedge with futures if needed and day time hedge or leverage with futures.

It sure needs the right pick of an investment instrument and this is what we teach our students. If you are interested:

Monday, August 16, 2010

Stock Market News for the Week of August 16, 2010

The week of Option Friday, Monday and Tuesday will decide where the market will go: up or down?

We are having an interesting week ahead of us. After a week of market drop we come to the point where the market forces will balance between moderate industrial growth with high profits and higher than expected unemployment. Monday will give us a first teaser and most likely a positive news. Tuesday push comes to pull and institutional money will decide where it wants to take the markets for now.

We are moderately bullish for the week ahead, but let the market tell us the direction.

Here are the key news events to consider this week:

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Stock Market: Are We Going Down ?

The stock market in a remaining uptrend with short term corrections based on high     unemployment rates, other countries are used too since decades.

We have sound economic growth with high unemployment and will have to accept those to be two independent variables. Why do we say so? The US is a mature economy, factories workers jobs got displaced over decades and by technologies and shift of production outside the country we will face high unemployment of around 10% for a long while. All European countries cope with such unemployment rates since 30 years.

Does the economy grow and progress? Yes. Usually we feel informed by the news, but as Mr. Mark Twain tough us: if you read or listen to the news, you are informed, but you never know if you are well informed.

Look at all the fantastic earnings reports of the last weeks, and most of the companies also showed revenue growth. Let us look at the newest reports:

Cisco Systems reported its fourth quarter results and said: Its fourth quarter earnings per share, excluding items, beat analyst estimates by a penny, with a 18% revenue growth. Sure some “experts” assumed they should have a 20% growth and with that they are greatly growing but below the expectation of an article writer. Tomorrow I expect the weather to be 9O F and sunny. St. Peter better meets my goals, else he is going to be rated below my expectation.

Kohl's Corp. (KSS), our retailer, reported second-quarter net income and revenues at forecasts and surely they did not meet experts expectations.

How sets up all those expectations and on what basis? It all sounds like a scam and somebody wants to purchase my shares at a lower price to sell it back to us at a higher price soon after.

General Motors reported a profit for the second quarter of $1.3 billion, up from $865 million in the preceding quarter, while sales at the Detroit-based company came in at $33.2 billion, versus $31.5 billion in the first quarter. This is a 5% growth and we want to overlook it?

We always trade with the market and now we get ready to bullish trades (the upside), interpreting the undercurrent of the market very different to the mass media.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Stock Market News for the Week of August 9, 2010

The week ahead will look at Government action paired with consumer sentiment. So what do we expect: not too much on the news side and for the rest we will go where the smart money is moving: overall we start out the with a slight bearish sentiment.
Here are the key news events to consider this week:

Sunday, August 8, 2010

What does it mean to be a Financial Market Investor

On a today's basis, only about 2% of the people who have investments in the world financial markets base their decisions of a sound education. See the magnitude of being a financial market investor to check and balance with your skills to succesfully trade up, down and sideways markets.

Since the internet, the world has no limits for financial market investors. From the comfort or our homes we can decide for our financial future or the future of our company.

The world Financial Markets:

  • Stock Markets
  • Bond Markets
  • Commodities Markets
  • Currencies Markets
The magnitude of different investment instruments is overwhelming and each of those markets has specifics to learn. How to cope with that? We need to focus and best get an education/mentorship to learn how investments in those markets can produce a return on our invested capital: ROC (Return On Capital). The transaction that leads to a financial market investment is casually called trading: one party buys and one party sells at a specific price.

NeverLossTrading analyzed and evaluated all those markets to provide you with a list of securities ……

Download the entire article of our website:


Saturday, August 7, 2010

Stock Markets: Economic Growth Paired with High Unemployment

“Economic growth with continued high unemployment will lead to stock market growth and deep short term corrections. A dangerous trading ground for the small investor.”
We said it in multiple of our publications: The US economy is in a an uptrend with high and to be continued unemployment. As a point of reference:

Friday, the Labor Department said that non-farm payroll employment fell by 131,000 jobs in July following a revised decrease of 221,000 jobs in June. Economists had expected employment to drop by 87,000 jobs compared to the loss of 125,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

At the same time, the report showed that the unemployment rate came in unchanged compared to the previous month at 9.5 percent, reflecting a decrease in the size of the labor force. Besides those jobs that disappear many of the non-registered workers are out of jobs or even out of the country. So we definitively have a decrease in size of labor registering for unemployment.

This is a big issue for the government is to cope with the additional costs and requirements of a 10% unemployment rate. A long needed restructuring of taxes, health care and social benefits is on the horizon. As a result of ongoing good corporate earnings and growth we will see economic progress which lets the markets climb, followed by sharp pullbacks on all issues to cope with the high unemployment.

Supporting indicators for our assumptions:

Kraft Foods Inc. said that its second quarter profit rose 13 percent from last year. However, quarterly revenues came in positive but lower than forecast, and the company trimmed its full year revenue growth projections.

Healthcare provider stocks are posting some of today’s steepest losses, resulting in a 2.4 percent drop by the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Provider Index.

Look alone at Fridays trend of the major indexes and this just shows on the short term what to be expected long term.

The smart money is always ahead, and we put your right at par when you learn how to make money when markets go up, down or sideways.

NeversLossTrading is a premier education institute focusing to teach small group of investors how they can leverage and hedge their assets, in each of their accounts: 401(k), IRA, Custodian, Personal. Due to working with small groups only the best to get in touch with them is:

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Stock Markets: Are We Getting Into A Downtrend?

We are facing a time of an growing economy and continues high unemployment rates. There are many indicators speaking for a longer term growth with sharp market corrections. See our arguments.

Before the start of trading this morning, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 479,000 in the week ended July 31st from the previous week's revised figured of 460,000.

Is that really a surprise?

As often reported prior, the US for the first time is faced with a continues high unemployment level, as most European countries are used to since 30 years.

The market sure reacted negative and all kind of little explanations for a big structural problem were found: GM shutdowns (as if they were not there last year)

Our interpretation: We will have consumers who can spend, because they have a job and others who cannot, because they do not have a job.

Look at the retail reports from morning: A number of key chain stores reporting comparable July store sales. BJ's Wholesale (BJ) reported that its July comps rose by 6 percent, Nordstrom (JWN) said its sales increased by 7.6 percent, Kohl's (KOHL) sales advanced by 7.1 percent and sales by Macy's (M) jumped by 11 percent.

Now a key economic indicator: Freight & Transportation and Logistics Services company Con-way Inc. (CNW) posted second-quarter net income that was nearly 24 percent higher compared to the same period last year but still missed projections.

Let us puzzle it together:

“We are facing a period of economic growth where unemployment continues as an unresolved issue: American Companies got used to work with less people and will not rehire proportionate, even though they grow.”

Some more economic facts:

Yesterday, ISM revealed that its non-manufacturing index rose to 54.3 in July from 53.8 in June, with a reading above 50 indicating continued growth in the service sector. Economists had been expecting the index to edge down to a reading of 53.0.

In earnings news, PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) reported second-quarter net income of $0.20 per share, while analysts expected the company to report a loss of $0.01 per share. Total revenues for the quarter surged up to $1.31 billion from $678.58 million in the prior year quarter.

Media and entertainment giant Time Warner Inc. (TWX) said its second-quarter earnings rose to $0.49 per share, topping forecasts for $0.45 per share for the period. Revenues for the quarter grew 8 percent to $6.4 billion, while analysts expected revenues of $6.20 billion.

Additionally, Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) said it swung to a profit in the first quarter compared to a loss in t he same period last year, helped by 27 percent revenue growth on the strength of Asian sales and demand-stimulus programs in Japan.

So what will all this mean for the Stock Market Investor:

We assume that we continue on a bullish sentiment with sharp negative pullbacks. Our outlook even goes for the next 5-10 years. Why? It will take that long for the government to deal with the restructuring of the taxation system to cope with long term unemployment, health care and social benefits for people who cannot find a job. Each time such news will hit the market it will take away quick from the levels that will be build by continues rising corporate earnings and growth.

For the investor it means to learn how to trade the market in all directions and how to hedge assets besides using a stop loss. teaches small groups up to 15 how to build and secure a long term portfolio of 401(k), IRA, Personal, Custodian accounts. One of their quotes: “People think that they cannot hedge (secure) their 401(k) investment because they have to stick to the investment vehicles of the plan provider. The plan is sure what the plan is and we will not change it, but add additional instruments that will make your investments long term grow and protect against sharp declines.”

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Is Day Trading The Way To Make Money In The Stock Market?

Call your broker and tell that you want to day trade- long (to the upside) and short(to the downside): putting the account to cash at the end of the day.

What will be the answer?

We often heard it: “Oh you want to take on some indefinite or infinite risk?”

Is that true?

Not at all. You take on the same or even less calculated risk than owning a stock. Socks can go to Zero: Check how many stocks actually traded to zero on May 6, 2010. Please check out what CNBC had to day:

One thing is for certain: “most people never been educated in how to trade the financial markets to offset a potential risk by applying an appropriate investment strategy. “A hammer in the hand of a little child can lead to unwanted bruises or damage, in the hand of an educated craftsman to outstanding results.” The difference in-between is education and practice.

Our days only about 2% of the population is educated to care about their own money. Most people believe they are better on leaving their financial future relying on a third person. A key argument we get told:”if your car needs to be fixed, what do you do? You bring it to a car repair service, specialized to get the job done for you.”

On the side of your money, if you doubled what you invested in the last 7 years then you are at a rate of 7% annual return. If your account does not show a doubling over 7 years you need to think what is going wrong and how you can benefit on your own within trading the markets and making constant income if the market goes up, down or sideways. is a premier institution to teach small groups of people (up to 15) to manage after 3 days their financial future.

Depending on the individual focus they target returns of 2-3% a day, week, month and give you easy to follow trade setups, indicators and a trading plans that helps to strive for the specific set goals.

Key to their education is that they commit that after 3 days you are ready to trade. Not only that you gone be ready to trade, you will leave, knowing how to leverage and hedge your assets. In addition they offer a member ship program where you can continuously, once a week get market feedback and all questions answered you still might have.

They offer small group classes only and rather call it a workshop than a class. When you leave you will have your computer setup with your trading platform ready to trade.

In our interview they said, lately they have more people coming with an interest in day trading. Surly NeverLossTrading has a specially designed program for day traders. The key obstacle for people to learn how to day trade is their inner voice, that is constantly telling: “day trading more risky.”

Why is this concern so dominant? We got taught that way through generations and now we believe this is true. The answer of NeverLossTrading is: “every trade carries a risk, but we want to bring it to a calculated risk reward, where people get taught where to enter, take profits and put their stops in case the trade reverses.

Everybody who goes through their classes feels confident and prepared for the financial markets after.

If you still think that day trading is dangerous, you might want to read the following article originally published by Bloomberg on Goldman Sachs, who made record wins in the year where Bear Sterns and Leman Brother went out of business – and where did those profits come from: “day trading.” Hence, there must be something about day trading, which people our days shall learn to care about their financial future. Please check the following link for the original article.


Goldman Sachs $100 Million Trading Days Reach Record (Update3)

By Christine Harper - August 5, 2009 12:13 EDT

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. made more than $100 million in trading revenue on a record 46 separate days during the second quarter, or 71 percent of the time, breaking the previous high of 34 days in the prior three months.

Trading losses occurred on two days during April, May and June, down from eight in the first quarter, the New York-based bank said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company made at least $50 million on 58 of the 65 trading days in the period, or 89 percent of the time.

Goldman Sachs, which was the biggest U.S. securities firm before converting to a bank last year, posted the biggest profit in its history during the second quarter as revenue from trading and equity underwriting reached all-time highs. The company, which has returned $10 billion to the U.S. Treasury and paid $1.42 billion in dividends and to cancel warrants, also made its largest market bets during the period.

“It’s very counterintuitive to think that they’d be able to generate this much profit and this much revenue in the middle of an ongoing recession,” said William Cohan, a former banker at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Lazard Ltd. and author of “House of Cards” about the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. “But the fact that so many of their competitors are out of business or severely wounded has put them in a very strong position.”

Trading Days

In fiscal year 2008, the firm had 90 days in which traders made more than $100 million, compared with 88 in 2007. In fiscal 2006, the figure was 49 days, up from 18 in 2005 and 14 in 2004. Goldman Sachs changed its fiscal year in 2009 to end in December instead of November.

Goldman Sachs’s trading results reflected the firm’s willingness to take on more risk during the period. Value-at- risk, an estimate of how much the firm could lose in any given day, rose to an average of $245 million in the second quarter from $240 million in the first quarter and $184 million in the second quarter of 2008. Most of the increase in the second quarter came from bets on equities, the company said.

“They take risks for their clients and for themselves and they’ve figured out a way in this market, with less competition bidding for these things, to make money,” Cohan said.

Trading and principal investments accounted for 78 percent of the bank’s revenue in the second quarter of 2009, up from 59 percent in the second quarter of 2008. Net interest income, the difference between the interest the firm pays and what it charges, climbed 60 percent from the second quarter of 2008 as the company’s interest expense dropped 83 percent.

FDIC Backing

Banks such as Goldman Sachs are benefiting from lower borrowing costs after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in October started guaranteeing bank debt issues that mature within three years. Goldman Sachs said in today’s filing it had $25.1 billion of debt guaranteed by the FDIC under the agency’s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program. The bank sold about $30 billion of the FDIC-backed securities between November and March, according to company filings.

Today’s filing showed the weighted average interest rate paid by Goldman Sachs on its unsecured short-term borrowings dropped to 1.70 percent in June from 2.14 percent in March and from 3.37 percent in November.

Goldman Sachs is cooperating with government agencies and regulators making inquiries into its compensation practices, according to the filing. The board is reviewing letters from shareholders demanding an investigation of pay practices and recovery of any “excessive compensation,” the filing showed.

The company said it received inquiries from regulators about credit derivative instruments, and is cooperating. Goldman Sachs settled a lawsuit related to Enron Corp. on Aug. 3 and is waiting court approval. The filing didn’t provide details on the case or identify any of the regulators.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at

Monday, August 2, 2010

Stock Market: Bullish Day after Economic News – What will happen tomorrow?

The Stock Markets went sharply higher today. Checking Index Futures, this move was already indicated by the opening on 6 p.m. EST yesterday and confirmed with the opening of the European session at 3 a.m. EST.
Then came the economic news with a better than expected reading on national manufacturing activity and all Indexes: DOW, S&P, Nasdaq, Russell, doubled up and got into positive annual territory. Here are the news as they came in:

The ISM said its manufacturing index fell to a reading of 55.5 in July from 56.2 in June, with a reading above 50 indicating continued growth in the sector. Economists had expected the index to show a more notable decrease to a reading of 54.2. When you check out publication and how we followed the earnings reports of major US companies, we saw that coming and by kept our bullish sentiment.

Separately, the Commerce Department said that construction spending edged up 0.1 percent to an annual rate of $836.0 billion in June from the revised May estimate of $834.8 billion. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected spending to decrease by 0.8 percent.

This coupled with good earnings gives a positive, or bullish sentiment.

Let us be aware, the battle for the bulls is not won. This week the bulls will get tested by reports of the employment situation, outlay of personal income and consumer spending might challenge the overall bull position and we might see some downs spikes while we keep our overall bullish sentiment.

If you want to see a clear outlay of this week’s economic news, check our link: ‘

Earnings News with Focus on International Banking and Healthcare:

HSBC reported a six-month profit of $0.38 per share, well above the $0.21 per share reported for the same period last year. The firm benefited from a decline in loan impairments, as charges fell to $7.52 billion compared to $13.93 billion recorded a year earlier.

French banking giant BNP Paribas reported a 31 percent increase in its second quarter profits on a near 12 percent increase in revenues, as its cost of risk declined about 54 percent from last year.

Humana Inc.'s second-quarter net income grew to $2.00 per share, firmly topping expectations for $1.67 per share. Total revenues for the second quarter increased 9.5 percent to $8.65 billion, while analysts estimated revenues of $8.61 billion for the quarter.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Stock Market News for the Week of August 2, 2010

The week ahead takes the consumers their spending and the employment situation in focus.

We seen great earnings reports from major companies, which gives us a sound basis for future investments. Unfortunately there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the employment situation or better to say: unemployment situation. Everybody in this respect looks to the government, but there we sure do not find the source of the issue: Companies learned to work more efficient and do not hire back the same amount of people and still get the job done.

Now we need to see this week how potent the remaining consumers are and how their spending will make the economy float above or below waters.

Here are the key news events to consider the week of August 2:

Friday, July 30, 2010

Stock Market News by NeverLossTrading: Where is the Economy and the Stock Market Heading Towards?

We still have a mixed bag of fantastic earnings and uncomfortable economic news. Today we first picked up a bearish sentiment and later in the day the news got digested and turned into a more positive outlook.
What is going on?

Our summary: American Corporations got more efficient and will never rehire the amount of people they worked with prior. Basically the Government now employs all those qualified and willing to work people on the unemployment role. Europe has that problem since 30 years, now America got hit. The economy is growing. This week we have seen consumer companies and all others reporting growth in revenue and fantastic earnings. What was shown in earnings is just fabulous. When stocks are measured on P/E (price/earnings) we have a season of growth in front of us. But on the other side America has to get used to 10% unemployment and needs to restructure taxation, healthcare and lending policies, which will affect three big and influential Dow and S&P sectors: Financials, Banking, Healthcare. With an overall need for restructuring value added tax and the entire taxation system, all sectors will take a beating. But you know what: there is no place like America in respect of dealing with changes –whatever comes along will be turned into being ahead of the world and more profitable.

For all financial market investors times of as season of uprising stock prices based on growth and profitability is ahead of us, followed by beaten down bear rallies on every change in lending, taxation and healthcare that will need to come our way. For those who like to make money through financial market investments (401(k), IRA, Personal, Custodian, Margin Accounts) in the next 5-10 years, you better learn to make money in up, down and sideways markets bye hedging and leveraging your investments: is here to teach you.

Today July 30, 2017, Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan released their final report on consumer sentiment in the month of July, showing that the consumer sentiment index was upwardly revised by more than expected but continued to show a notable deterioration in sentiment compared to June. The report showed that the consumer sentiment index for July was upwardly revised to a reading of 67.8 from the preliminary estimate of 66.5. While the revised reading came in above economist estimates of 67.5, it remained well below the June reading of 76.0. Whatever face lifting we do, consumers are not confident in the economy yet. The high unemployment with no clear solution brings a Bearish Sentiment.

Richard Curtin, Surveys of Consumers chief economist, said, "Scarce jobs and stagnating incomes have been the top concerns of consumers for some time."

The Institute for Supply Management - Chicago said its business barometer rose to 62.3 in July from 59.1 in June, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in Chicago-area business activity. The increase surprised economists, who had expected the index to fall to a reading of 56.3. This is sure not a surprise: raising profits and cash on hand give a better outlook: Bullish Sentiment.

The Commerce Department said that gross domestic product: GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter compared to the revised 3.7 percent jump seen in the first quarter. Economists had expected GDP to increase by 2.5 percent compared to the 2.7 percent growth that had been reported for the first quarter. The economy is growing, price competition still keeps the growth in a smaller scale but overall a Bullish Sentiment.

Earnings News:

Chevron Corp. (CVX) reported second-quarter net income of $2.70 per share, up from $0.87 per share in the same quarter last year. Wall Street analysts expected the company to report earnings of $2.44 per share for the quarter. The firm posted revenues of $51.05 billion, which was short of the $52.52 billion projected by analysts.

Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) reported adjusted second-quarter net income of $0.86 per share, topping expectations for $0.83 per share. Unadjusted net profit fell by roughly 50 percent to $0.24 per share. Sales for the quarter came in at $11.35 billion, short of the consensus estimate for $11.45 billion.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Stock Market: Bearish Sentiment Picked Up

July 29, 2010: Our late night market analysis sees for the first time since July 6, 2010 a bearish sentiment over the bullish stock market move we are currently in.
We filter market sentiment from multiple indicators we run at night. For the first time we want to initiate a warning on the overall bullish trend we committed to in our prior publications and get prepared for a bearish reversal.

Stock Market: Economic News and Outlook by NeverLossTrading

We are facing a time with great corporate earnings and a to be continued high unemployment rate. Corporations learned to work more efficient and will not rehire the same amount of people to get the job done. The economy overall is strengthening and the stock market decides day by day what news drives the market up or down.

Today, July 29, 2010 great earnings reports were continued and no change on the unemployment situation lead to a negative market direction after a start on the high side. Overall we are still bullish and here are the reasons why:

This morning the Labor Department released a report showing that jobless claims in the week ended July 24th were basically on the rate of expectation and show give or take not improvement. The rate of change is less than one standard deviation from the mean value and with that does not give any tendency. Jobless came in at 457,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 468,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to be at 460,000 from the 464,000 originally reported for the previous week. Overall not bettering in the unemployment situation is a clear Bearish signal and made the market sell off after a good start.

In earnings news:

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) reported second-quarter net income of $1.60 per share, topping estimates that called for $1.47 per share for the period. Total revenues rose to $92.49 billion but fell short of the $98.49 billion fore cast for the quarter. Solid earnings and money for investment: Bullish.

Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) also revealed its financial results for the second quarter, including earnings of $1.17 per share compared to estimates for $1.16 per share. Sales for the quarter totaled $3.81 billion, up from $3.74 billion in the prior year (+1.8%) quarter but short of estimates for $3.94 billion. This is a real consumer company and it made a modest growth in a very price promotion driven market: Bullish.

Motorola Inc. (MOT) reported adjusted second-quarter earnings of $0.09 per share, just above Wall Street estimates for $0.08 per share. Net sales for the quarter came in at$5.414 billion, which beat forecasts for $5.19 billion for the quarter. Innovation counts and those who have it increase in sales: Bullish.

Japanese electronics giant Sony Corp. (SNE) reported a profit for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 compared to a loss in the same period last year. The company also raised its full year earnings outlook and maintained its revenue guidance. The signs of Sony are difficult to read, the technology leader of consumer electronics of the past has shown little to no innovation leadership in the last 10 years and restructured themselves into the positive. No real market sentiment.

Credit card service provider Visa Inc. (V) said that its third-quarter profit declined 2 percent from last year, with the drop primarily due to lower investment income. Looking ahead, the company reaffirmed its earnings outlook for fiscal years 2010 and 2011. If you do not give credit, you have no earnings. Today, credit card companies try to get 15% annual plus finance charges from their clients. This is a huge margin, considering money at 3%, but if you keep credit tight, the earnings potential gets small. No real market sentiment.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

US Markets on Hold after Economic News

Today the market was digesting fabulous earnings, better housing numbers, a lower consumer confidence and lower Durable Goods Orders and a mixed bag Federal Reserve report. The market reacted with a small sell off, but what is behind the news and what shall individual investors focus on?
On the earnings front today:

Boeing Co. (BA) reported second-quarter earnings of $1.06 per share, topping forecasts for $1.01 per share, while its revenues for the quarter came in $15.57 billion, short of projections of $16.13 billion for the period. Hence, better earnings and slightly less sales, but overall healthy: Bullish sentiment.

Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) reported a wider second-quarter net loss compared to last year, showing a loss of $0.25 per share compared a loss of $0.13 per share last year. On average, analysts expected a loss of $0.20 per share for the quarter. The company also posted second-quarter revenues of $8.02 billion, which were just short of the $8.03 billion estimated on Wall Street. For Sprint it is hard to be a domestic number three with no clear point of differentiation, tmobile, vergin mobile, vergin atlantic and other providers right at their heels: No real sentiment indicator form this.

ConocoPhillips (COP) reported a surge in its second-quarter earnings to $2.77 per share, while its adjusted quarterly earnings came in at $1.67 per share. Analysts had forecast the firm to earn $1.56 per share for the quarter. ConocoPhillips also announced that it will sell 40 percent of its stake in Lukoil back to the firm for approximately $3.4 billion. The firm said its remaining 60 percent stake in Lukoil are depositary receipts and are expected to be sold in open market transactions or to Lukoil by the end of 2011.

Economic Indicators:

The Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods fell by 1.0 percent in June following a revised 0.8 percent decrease in May. The drop in orders came in line with economist estimates, while the decrease in orders in the previous month was revised from the 0.6 percent decline that had been reported. Excluding a 2.4 percent decrease in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders fell by a more modest 0.6 percent in June compared to a 1.2 percent increase in the previous month. The decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected ex-transportation orders to increase by 0.6 percent. By our means. Why to order transportation goods in a market with enough capacity are the orders for durable goods usually in the books of American companies. Working with the Automotive, Beverage-, Food-, Packaging- and other industries we seen a clear dominance in this sector by European, Japanese and Korean companies. When we trace back in time for a week, Germany reported a 27% increase in export – isn’t this base on US orders? Hence, we conclude that this is not really a market sentiment indicator.

This afternoon the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report, an assessment of economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts and now we need to wait how big money decides to interpret the new economic publication. Let us have the facts prior to going to interpretation:

The Fed's latest beige book report of economic conditions showed improvement in most of its 12 regional districts, but with only modest advances in retail sales and weak numbers in housing and construction. Bank lending, meanwhile, was still tight. Let us summarize: We show an improved economy and solid corporate earnings. Surely based on high unemployment and tight lending: housing, construction and consumer spending comes tight. It is hard to do deficit spending if the banks and credit card companies do not allow.


Based on higher profits more money will flow into the investment stream and stimulate other sectors. The recovery of the average consumer confidence will take: Corporations restructured, got more efficient and will not rehire the amount of people they worked with before. As a result we have an underlying bullish sentiment in a bear market and can expect steep up and down swings which will be wearing hard on the average investor who just holds Shares and Mutual Funds. To make money in the stock market people need to learn to trade the up and downside of the market, only hold shorter term positions. Futures, Options and Forex are the ideal investment instruments and is an ideal place to learn in 3 days how to apply them right to a better financial future. This counts for any account: 401(k), IRA, Personal, Margin, Custodian. Even if you might think that you are limited in your 401 (k) portfolio, NeverLossTrading will teach you that you are not and there are many ways to hedge and leverage your retirement account in the same way and manner as your personal accounts.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Stock Market News: Are we Bullish or Bearish

What did the news say today?

• a more sizable than forecast pickup in home prices , solid corporate earnings, S&P Growth: Bullish

• a disappointing reading on consumer confidence: Bearish.

What do the news tell us today?

We are having an economic recovery with continues high unemployment. This was all seen in Europe and started there 30 years ago. To cope with this problem Europe restructured and build a sound welfare system: When companies don’t employ people, they need to live from something. This is sure unknown for America and seeing your neighbor unemployed for long even though he is skilled and willing to work makes consumers growing increasingly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook.

The consumer sentiment will change: Corporations will no more run layoffs and those who work will feel money to spend which will change their sentiment, but it will take.

The government has to restructure unemployment support, availability of health care and the taxation system to handle 10% unemployment in their balance sheet.

So short term we are getting ready for a bullish market sentiment and every time the government or Fed will touch one of the instruments they have to cope with the overall unemployment problem: interest, tax, healthcare, welfare. The market will go berserk and give us big junks of retracements.

What do we do to benefit from this: Swing Positions in options, Day Positions in Futures and Currencies no Equities (Shares, Mutual Funds, ETF’s). To handle those types of investments we highly recommend a Market Investor Education with

Here are a few more overall bullish market indicators. Today we take on the Chemical industry, it usually provides and early economic indicator and the sings are: Bullish.

DuPont (DD) reported adjusted second-quarter net income of $1.17 per share, firmly topping forecasts for $0.93 per share. Net sales for the quarter came in at $8.62 billion, also beating expectations that called for $8.23 billion for the period. The European based second chemical giant: BASF is doing as well or even better.

BP Plc (BP) unveiled a $17.2 billion second-quarter loss due to $32.2 billion in charges related to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The loss came after a profit of $4.39 billion in the same period last year. The firm also named managing director Robert Dudley as its new chief executive, replacing Tony Hayward, starting in October. Dudley will be the first American to head the company. From an investor perspective, BP assumes to get away within spending about a 1 year income to clean up the oil spill generated and wants to get out of the news by replacing the CEO (sure we do not need to worry about him, he has a package that gets him over the hump).

Sunday, July 25, 2010

This Week the Stock Market will be Weighed – Mene, Mene, Tekel

After a week of great earnings announcements that were looking back, the overall economy and the stock marked with be weighed on the scale of the outward economy.

Volatility is expected and the smart money will work out if the marked it found wanting or if the new uptrend gets confirmed. MENE, MENE, TEKEL – the writing is on the wall for the big money to interpret and best for us to do, is just to follow on a day trading basis the overall bullish sentiment that started last week.

Monday and Tuesday will give us first sentiment readings to be decided on Wednesday and Friday.

Trading the markets never gets boring.

Good Trading,


Saturday, July 24, 2010

Stock Market: We are Bullish for Now!

If you had that chart and knew you trade towards the downside, when the overall notion is red; to the upside if the overall notion of the chart is green and if a blue back shadow occurs, expect a change in direction, would that help your trading?

We sure think so and we are the only company in the market with an indicator that clearly spells out when not to trade: NLT Nominator – this one makes the call.

For now, we only teach small groups of 5 – 20 participants. If you are the initiator of a seminar in your city, we give you 50% off.


Thursday, July 22, 2010

Stock Market News and Truth by NeverLossTrading

Wow, what a Stock Market Rally. How did this one come. Take a short moment and check out our reports from yesterday:

Now we get to the points:

The market reported a softer than expected decline in existing home sales. NAR said existing home sales fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million units in May. Economists had been expecting existing home sales to show a steeper decline to a 5.09 million unit rate. So with the advanced sales by the government stimulus program this is a good sign.

Let us take a look in the world: Eurostat reported that orders for industrial goods in the euro zone rose 3.8 percent in May, a jump of nearly 22.7 percent compared to the same period last year. The figure surprised economists, who had forecast flat monthly orders. But why did this figure rise? US-companies make profits and invest further into machinery that is often bough from Europe.

Now we come to realization: The US companies restructured, highly profitable and have money to spend. They get it done with less people and this will be a given and the Government now owns the liability for all those people who cannot find a job. Look at today’s Labor Department report: showing that jobless claims jumped to 464,000 in the week ended July 17th from the previous week's revised figure of 427,000. Economists had expected weekly jobless claims to increase to 445,000 from the 429,000 originally reported for the previous week.

On the earnings front, construction machinery manufacturer Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) reported second quarter net income of $1.09 per share, topping forecasts for $0.85 per share for the period. Sales and revenues for the quarter totaled $10.409 billion, firmly beating forecast for $9.80 billion. The company's median forecast for earnings and revenues for fiscal 2010 was also above analyst expectations. Again somebody who sells machinery to those who have money.

Economic bellwether United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) reported second-quarter net income of $0.84 per share, which was above analyst consensus of $0.77 per share. Total revenues for the quarter rose to $12.20 billion from the $10.83 billion posted in the prior year quarter. Analysts had consensus revenue estimate of $11.98 billion for the period. Where there is freight there are goods exchanged.

3M Co. (MMM) said its second quarter net income came in at $1.54 per share, beating estimates for $1.48 per share. Net sales for the quarter rose 17.7 percent to $6.73 billion, also topping estimates that called for $6.66 billion. The firm also boosted its 2010 sales growth expectations.

So the economy does better that previously reported. The key problem is that there is not enough jobs and new jobs will most likely not be created with the rate of revenue and profit growth. This leads into a future where at one point the government needs to restructure taxes and health care to cope with the additional spending. Considering this, we see whip slash market ups and downs which are good for the day trader and hard for the long term investor who one day will be in heaven and in hell the next.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Tomorrows Stock Market Potentials by NeverLossTrading

Today, July 21, 2010, 11:30 EST the stock markets point slightly down. Is it because of earnings?

Definitely not. The good thing is, we show favorable earnings from key players and revenue increases from wide spread companies like Coca-Cola, Yahoo and United Technologies. Meaning: there is people and companies out there consuming and investing, which gives us a positive rather than an negative market outlook.

See the details:

On the earnings front today, financial services firm Morgan Stanley (MS) reported second-quarter net income of $1.09 per share compared to a net loss of $1.10 per share in the year-ago period. Excluding income from discontinued operation, the firm reported net income of $0.80 per share.

Analysts expected Morgan Stanley to report earnings of $0.46 per share for the period. The company also reported net revenues for the period of $8.0 billion, above the $7.93 billion projected by Wall Street analysts for the quarter.

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) unveiled second-quarter net income of $0.55 per share, beating estimates for $0.48 per share for the quarter. Total revenue for the latest quarter decreased 5 percent to $21.39 billion, nearly in-line with expectations for $21.4 billion for the quarter.

Coca-Cola Company (KO) reported adjusted second-quarter net income of $1.06 per share, topping forecasts for $1.03 per share for the quarter. Net revenues for the quarter came in at $8.67 billion but fell short of the $8.70 billion analysts expected.
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) revealed second quarter 2010 net income of $1.20 per share versus $1.05 per share in the same quarter last year. The results beat analyst project ions for $1.16 per share. Revenues of $13.9 billion were 5 percent above the prior year quarter and higher than the $13.56 billion projected for the quarter. The firm also lifted its 2010 earnings guidance.

After the markets closed for trading in the previous session, Apple (AAPL) said that its third quarter profit jumped 78 percent from last year, driven by strong sales of Mac computers, iPhones and iPads. The company's quarterly earnings breezed past Wall Street expectations as did its quarterly sales.

Also after the close yesterday, internet search engine Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) said that its second-quarter profit increased 51 percent from last year, boosted by significant growth in display advertising revenue, higher margins, and lower operating expenses.