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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Disaster in Front Of Us: S&P 500 – Emini Futures – Stock Market

Where will the stock market go next and what will we do to be on the right side of the trade?
Fundamentally, all arguments would say it shall go up:

- Corporate profits are up

- Employment seems to better

- Orders are in the book

- Raw materials like oil are on lower rates

- In new technologies America is taking the lead (cell phones, computers)

But what happens to the Euro?

With those arguments we are making Greece responsible for the world economy. When we compare Greece to a State in the US, it is like making the state of Pennsylvania the decision maker for the American economy. Those who want to compare, you find Greece and PA having about the same population and about the same participation in GDP (in a simplified method).

At the end of the day , would America really worry if PA (and PA is not in the best shape) stutters a little?

The publishing and news companies love to be chicken little and let the world go under for us. But such news without a base will only hold for a couple of days, till the sun rises again.


So what will the direction going to be?

First down, to scare the ….yes… out of everybody and when we are low enough, a quick whip slashing up to make nice profits and sell what was bought cheap to those who pay.

Is the stock market evil?

NO way. It is an exchange: “securities go for money” and we decide what we pay.

Challenging times for people who are long: owning stocks or other securities (and is that not what we were taught to do: buy and hold and pray it will be up when you need it).

Worse even if you have stop losses in place.

But there is another way: “learn to get a financial market investor education and you will love every day the market moves.”

What will we do if the market does not move?

We apply a neutral strategy and make money of it.

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