Since the end of January 2015, SPY, our leading indicator for the stock market, remains in the Purple Zone; expressing ambiguity: Institutional leaders give no clear sign for directional price moves.
SPY Price Development 2015 (Weekly Chart)
However; we observe long weekly candles, which allow for shorter-term directional trades, while positioning trading is only advisable for assets with strong individual price moves. Independent individual movers on our watch list for next week are for example: AAL (however, DAL will declare earnings, which might have an impact), and EBAY.
As a consequence for next week, we favor 4-hour, 1-hour, 30-min and even 10-min trades over positioning trades.
Please build up your watch lists for stocks accordingly:
- 4-hour trades from the last hour movers and long-term investor alerts, scans prior to 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET.
- 1-hour trades from the last hour movers and the stock alert list.
On the side of Futures trading, we see market pressure at Stock Market Indexes, Bonds/Notes.
Currency traders, watch for moves in the AUD, JPY, and CND.
This question came to us: How important is the lower earnings declaration of AA (Alcoa) for the stock market development? Let us put the SPY (pink line) and Alcoa (red/blue line) on one chart:
SPY and Alcoa Price Development Compared on a Daily Chart
Since February of this year, Alcoa took and independent price move to the downside, which was not correlated with the overall stock market; hence, the influence of AA reporting 10% lower than expected earnings is not seen as significant for the price development of the overall stock market.
For your next week’s trading, please consider that a new earnings season just started. Hence, trade carefully and consider protecting long-term positions over earnings.
The financial markets have their complexity; however, we help you to de-complex them by focusing on spotting and following institutional money moves. If you like to learn how you can do this on your own, check our offering: http://NeverLossTrading.com and feel free to schedule your personal consulting hour:
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